Game: Deal or No Deal-Version 1 (M.A. Lady Vulpix)

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Ok, let's see if we can build that offer back up a little bit!!

Case 14: $10
Case 15: $1,000

Good job!! A very good round this time. The top value was still left in play, and you now have a 1 in 6 chance of having $100,000 in your case. Plus, you are now at the point in the game where you will only need to open one case to receive an offer. As long as the $100,000 stays unopened, the offers will continue to go up!!

The offer is now for $24,000

mr_pikachu, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 4: $18,000
Round 3: $45,000
Round 2: $49,000
Round 1: $38,000

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[mr_pikachu]

No deal. Let's knock off #22, shall we?

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Ok, good luck, and try to keep that $100,000 in play!!

Inside Case 22 is $50!!

Two rounds in a row that went very well. You now have a 1 in 5 chance of having the $100,000 case. (And also a 1 in 5 chance of having the penny!! O_o )

The offer is now up to $30,000

mr_pikachu, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 5: $24,000
Round 4: $18,000
Round 3: $45,000
Round 2: $49,000
Round 1: $38,000

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[mr_pikachu]

Four out of five values make the offer go up. And it's not like $30,000 compares to Dark's total, so what do I have to lose? No deal.

Case 23. Let's see how far I can push my luck before karma kicks me in the jewels.

[Dark-San]

Go ahead and open the rest, Brian. Better than sitting back knowing that the proposed amount is going to be on the left side of the board.

*No deal! No deal! No deal!*

[Number1ChanseyFan]

You are certainly playing this game with a lot of courage!! Let's see if the karma is still good.

Inside case 23 is... the penny!!

You have finally opened the case with the penny. You are now guaranteed to walk away with at least $25!! Even better, there is a 1 in 4 chance that you have $100,000.

The offer has now increased to $37,000!!

mr_pikachu, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 6: $30,000
Round 5: $24,000
Round 4: $18,000
Round 3: $45,000
Round 2: $49,000
Round 1: $38,000

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[mr_pikachu]

Well, I was going to take the deal, but...

*bows to peer pressure* No deal! Let's smash #24!

[Number1ChanseyFan]

It is very impressive to see you press on when you only have one big amount remaining!!

Case 24 has... $25!!

You have eliminated the smallest remaining prize, and you are now guaranteed of leaving with at least $750. Plus, your chances of having the $100,000 case have now increased to 1 in 3. Plus, although it isn't the most important case remaining, keeping the $25,000 in play will also help your offers from the banker.

The deal is now up to $48,000!!

mr_pikachu, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 7: $37,000
Round 6: $30,000
Round 5: $24,000
Round 4: $18,000
Round 3: $45,000
Round 2: $49,000
Round 1: $38,000

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[mr_pikachu]

Ergh. That offer makes it really hard to keep going.

If I open another case, there's a 2/3 chance that I'll eliminate something below the current offer and therefore make it rise. If I trash the $750, I'm in really good shape with an average of $62,500 between the two remaining cases. If I lose the $25K, my average is instead $50,375... more than the current offer, but not by very much.

If the big one is the next case, though, suddenly my average plummets to $12,875, and the offer will likely be in that area. Mathematically speaking, the average of those three averages (which should be relatively close to the average of the offers to come next round) is equivalent to the average value of the remaining three cases, which is approximately $41,916.67 (rounded to the nearest penny). That's significantly lower than my current offer.

Considering the somewhat high probability of screwing up here (1 in 3), the minimal benefits for opening a low case, the catastrophic losses for revealing the $100K, and the fact that this is my best offer since round two... I'll take the deal.

*hits giant red button*

Out of curiosity, what was in the last two cases? And what was in my own? I'm just wondering what would have happened if I'd opened #25 and #26 in succession.

[Magmar]

PM or IM me when we're ready to start my turn!!! Nicely done, Mr. Pikachu!

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Congrats!! You played a very good game. Despite opening some huge values in the early rounds, you were able to avoid the disaster of opening the last big prize, and you were able to build your offer back up!! Congrats on winning the $48,000!!

Now it is time to see if you made a good deal. Ladies, open up your cases!!

#25: $100,000
#26: $25,000

So yes, that means that your case, case #2, only had the $750 inside, so you made a good decision to take the deal when you did!! Good job. ^_^

Now it is time to meet our next contestant, Magmar!!

Magmar, there are 26 cases to choose from, numbered from 1-26. Inside each case is a randomly placed dollar amount, ranging from a penny to one million dollars!! Now, you need to choose one of these cases, you can keep this case and whatever is inside of it, or if you want, you can sell it to the banker. So, good luck to you, and try to choose the million dollar case!!

EDIT: Magmar, you posted while I was writing this!! XD So yeah, you can start now!!

Also, its kinda strange, the only people online right now are me and the 3 people that are waiting to play this game.

[Inferno_Dragon]

So just to clearify, after Magmar is done, it is my turn next, right?

[Number1ChanseyFan]

So just to clearify, after Magmar is done, it is my turn next, right?

Yeppers, that's right. And then after you play, it is Heald's turn.

[Magmar]

Heya! I'm totally picking Case #5

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Ok, case #5 is now your case, which you can keep, or sell to the banker. Let's hope that case 5 has the million dollars inside of it. Now, it is time to start opening cases. For the first round, you will need to open 6 cases, try to open the low values. Good luck!!

[Magmar]

Well, I really have no way of knowing what's in which--so this is probably just purely chance! Okay!

Let's go with...

*Funky poses with each*

12!

15!

17!

4!

8!

26!

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Ok best of luck to you!! Here goes Round #1!!

Case 12: $.01
Case 15: $500,000
Case 17: $5,000
Case 4: $1,000,000
Case 8: $200
Case 26: $500

Things got off to such a promising start when you started off opening the penny!! Things got a little rough after that though, as the million and half-million dollar cases are now gone. You still do have a chance at three quarters of a million!!

The first offer is for $37,500.

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[Magmar]

No deal! I'll go with 1, 6, 9, 10 and 24 before I go out for the night... if I get 5! If I only get 4 boxes, knock off the #6.

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Yep, you get to open 5 cases, sorry for not putting that in my last post!!

Case 1: $750,000
Case 6: $750
Case 9: $50,000
Case 10: $25,000
Case 24: $400,000

Ouch, I am really sorry, two more huge amounts are now gone. There are still three big prizes left though, including $300,000.

The offer is now $25,000. If you don't take the deal, you have to open 4 more cases before another offer is made.

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 1: $37,500

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[Magmar]

This is probably rigged. No deal!

2, 3, 11, 23.

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Hey!! This game isn't fixed!! I placed all of the prizes randomly in the cases before you picked your original case.

Case 2: $10,000
Case 3: $10
Case 11: $1
Case 23: $400

Good job, this was an excellent round. The largest case opened was only $10,000. All 3 of the remaining big prizes are still in play.

The offer is now $48,000. If you say no to the deal, you will have to open 3 more cases to receive another offer. As long as those big amounts stay in play, the offers will continue to grow.

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 2: $25,000
Round 1: $37,500

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[Magmar]

No deal!!! How about... 13, 14, 16!

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Picking a bunch of cases close together... let's hope that there were a bunch of small numbers clustered together!!

Case 13: $100
Case 14: $300
Case 16: $1,000

Another very good round, nothing larger than $1,000 opened, so that makes 2 excellent rounds in a row for you!! Now you have a 3 in 8 chance of having a case that has at least $100,000 in it.

The offer is now $72,000. If you do not take the deal, you will have to open 2 more cases.

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 3: $48,000
Round 2: $25,000
Round 1: $37,500

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[Magmar]

No deal, no deal!

Opening 25 and 21!!

[mr_pikachu]

I sense karma coming 'round with a baseball bat...

You know, I'm curious about the formula you use for the banker offers, Christen. To be perfectly honest, I was expecting a straight average of the remaining values (I've played that way before, and it's really lame), but that clearly isn't how you're making it work. It seems to be guided somewhat by the space between values on either end of the spectrum, so I'm thinking there's some sort of standard deviation formula being factored in. Very interesting... haven't worked it all out myself yet, though. And I suppose you can't just tell us, as that would damage the integrity of the game.

Anyway, just thought I'd mention that. You've intrigued me beyond my expectations.

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Mr_pikachu: It really isn't going to hurt the integrity of the game if I tell all of you what I do. I thought about averaging everything out, but that didn't seem like much fun, not to mention it really deviates from how the real game is run. In the earlier rounds, the offers do tend to start out below the true average, and then grow closer to it as the game progresses. Basically, there is no math formula used at all. I just try to keep the offers as close to what they would be on the TV show, (I am almost always within $10,000 when I am guessing what the offers will be on TV) so basically, I try to keep it somewhere in the middle, and the fewer cases that are remaining, the closer it will get to being at the true average. I also take into account how the game has been going, such as what the odds are of a high case being opened soon, and how far the player has progressed in the game. The later the game gets, the more the offers will change dramatically if an extremely high or low prize is opened. Basically, I am playing as two different people. As the host of the game, I really want the player to pick that million dollar case and go all of the way. However, when I make the banker's offer, I try to come up with an offer that will make the player seriously consider taking it, but still be fair in respect to the remaining values, and fair to the other players. Like you will notice that both you and Magmar had similar first offers, because both of you opened the million dollar cases in the first round. However Magmar also opened the $500,000 and you opened $300,000, so your offer for the first round was slightly higher. (Like $500. XD)

As for the cases, as soon as one player finished their game, I immediately redistribute the values in a completely random manner, I don't use any patterns or favorite numbers to decide the values, and I make sure that the values are set before the next player chooses their cases.

Ok, now back to the game. Magmar, here are the cases that you chose.

Case 25: $100,000
Case 21: $50

You have opened one pretty big case. However, your top two remaining cases are still in play. You have now reached the point in the game where you only have to open cases 1 at a time. There is now a 1 in 3 chance that you have at least $200,000 in your case, but there is also a 50% chance of having $75 or less. Keep those last two values in play, and the offers will grow.

The offer is now $90,000

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 4: $72,000
Round 3: $48,000
Round 2: $25,000
Round 1: $37,500

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[mr_pikachu]

Oh, so that's how it's done! I suppose that doesn't damage the integrity of the game at all... I assumed there was some sort of strict formula (and spent all of Dark-san's game trying to decipher it). But in reality, you're playing the game just as much as we are, huh? Very interesting.

I do have an additional question about the rules... it says that once you're down to two cases, you can choose to keep your case or to trade with the one that's left. Do you also have the option of accepting a banker offer at that point, or do you have to take one of the cases?

[Number1ChanseyFan]

XD yep, that's all there is to it, no complicated math or anything!! I am just playing like everybody else, and trying to keep this game as close as possible to the real game. ^_^

As for the rules, once you are down to two cases, you will receive the final offer from the banker. If you do not accept that deal, then you will have the choice of keeping your case or switching your case with the other remaining case, so yeah, there will still be an opportunity to take a deal. Sorry, I did write them a little confusingly. ^_^

[Magmar]

No deal! I'm opening Case #19 now!!

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Good luck to you. It is now getting to the point in the game where every case is more important then the last one. Keep opening those small cases, and the banker's offers will be huge.

Case 19: $75.

This is the fourth consecutive round that you offer has grown. You are about to receive your first 6-figure offer of the game. To keep the offers growing, the $200,000 and the $300,000 cases must be left unopened.

The offer is now for $111,000. Remember, you only need to open the cases 1 at a time if you turn down this offer.

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 5: $90,000
Round 4: $72,000
Round 3: $48,000
Round 2: $25,000
Round 1: $37,500

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[Magmar]

Ya know what... NO DEAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm gonna try for it!

Box #20 it is!

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Ok, time to open the case!!

Case 20 has... $200,000.

The $300,000 is still in play, but the $200,000 safety net is now gone. Still, you have a 25% chance of having the $300,000 case, but if you do, the only way to walk away with it is by opening every other case, and opening cases are now more dangerous then ever before.

The offer is now at $92,000. This is the first time since Round 2 that the offer has dropped. Three of the remaining values are smaller than the current offer. Open any one of them, and the deal goes up. Remember, cases only have to be opened one at a time.

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 6: $111,000
Round 5: $90,000
Round 4: $72,000
Round 3: $48,000
Round 2: $25,000
Round 1: $37,500

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[Magmar]

No deal. I don't care if I win or lose, I'll just leave it to chance

Let's go, 7.

[Number1ChanseyFan]

Good luck to you, let's hope that 7 is your lucky number today!!

Case #7 has... $25 inside!!

You have opened one of the smallest amounts left on the board. $5 still remains, as well as $75,000 and $300,000. The odds are better now than ever before that you have $300,000 in your case. Of course, if you don't have it, it would be a disaster to open it. You are about to receive your best offer of this game. If you open another case, you will have gone farther than either of the first two contestants. Things are certainly getting interesting.

The offer now is $128,000. If you say no to this deal, you will have to open another case.

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 7: $92,000
Round 6: $111,000
Round 5: $90,000
Round 4: $72,000
Round 3: $48,000
Round 2: $25,000
Round 1: $37,500

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[Magmar]

No deal.... let's go with 22 and see what's inside!!

[Number1ChanseyFan]

You have now gone farther than any other contestant so far, so congrats on the accomplishment!!

Inside Case 22 is... the $300,000...

I am very sorry, the $300,000 case is now gone. You have played a very tough game though, you took some big risks and opened a lot of cases. I know this isn't the result that we had hoped for, but you showed a lot of effort, and should be congratulated for playing on!! There are now only two cases remaining, your case, case #5, and case #18. If you don't accept this next offer, you can choose to keep whatever is inside of your case, or you may switch cases and keep the contents of case 18.

The offer is now $40,000

Magmar, Deal, or No Deal?

~Previous Offers~
Round 8: $128,000
Round 7: $92,000
Round 6: $111,000
Round 5: $90,000
Round 4: $72,000
Round 3: $48,000
Round 2: $25,000
Round 1: $37,500

~Money Board~

$.01..........$1,000
$1............$5,000
$5............$10,000
$10...........$25,000
$25...........$50,000
$50...........$75,000
$75...........$100,000
$100..........$200,000
$200..........$300,000
$300..........$400,000
$400..........$500,000
$500..........$750,000
$750..........$1,000,000

~Cases~

1.....2.....3.....4.....5.....6.....7

...8.....9.....10....11....12....13

...14....15....16....17....18....19

20....21....22....23....24....25....26

[Heald]

[Magmar]

No deal! 5 is my favorite number and I want my case. *kicks Heald swiftly in the shins*

[Heald]

So what you gonna spend your 5 bucks on?

[Magmar]

well if it was real money i'd worry about that =)