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Thread: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

  1. #481
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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    NVGOP Caucus Results Certified

    100% reporting (1800/1800)

    Romney 50.0%
    16,486

    Gingrich 21.1%
    6,956

    Paul 18.7%
    6,175

    Santorum 9.9%
    3,277

    (this took a really long time; they only finished this morning)

    Tomorrow, we find the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses, and the Missouri straw poll primary (which is non-binding). 76 delegates are at stake. These contests are receiving very little attention.

    Public Policy Polling hasn't ignored them entirely, though, with a fresh set of data from yesterday:

    CO candidate preference -
    Mitt Romney 40
    Rick Santorum 26
    Newt Gingrich 18
    Ron Paul 12

    CO favorable/unfavorable -
    Ron Paul 38/52
    Newt Gingrich 49/41
    Mitt Romney 60/31
    Rick Santorum 68/21

    CO ability to defeat Obama -
    Mitt Romney 51
    Newt Gingrich 19
    Rick Santorum 11
    Ron Paul 7

    MN candidate preference -
    Rick Santorum 29
    Mitt Romney 27
    Newt Gingrich 22
    Ron Paul 19

    MN favorable/unfavorable
    Newt Gingrich 47/39
    Ron Paul 48/41
    Mitt Romney 50/39
    Rick Santorum 72/18

    MN ability to defeat Obama -
    Mitt Romney 39
    Newt Gingrich 24
    Rick Santorum 13
    Ron Paul 10

  2. #482
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    In other news,

    Newt Gingrich Announces Candidacy for Democratic Party Nominee

    Newt Gingrich said Sunday that an “age of austerity” is the wrong solution for the economy and would “punish” the American people. He said he prefers “pro-growth” policies instead. The comments appear to pour cold water on the modern Republican belief that austerity and growth go hand in hand.

    The 2012 Republican presidential candidate was asked by NBC’s David Gregory on “Meet The Press” whether his hopes for a U.S. colony on the moon fly in the face of the GOP’s fiscal responsibility mantra. Gingrich responded with some choice words about austerity itself before defending his lunar ambitions.

    “First of all, David, I don’t think you’ll ever find me talking about an age of austerity. I don’t think that’s the right solution,” Gingrich said. “I am a pro-growth Republican. I’m a pro-growth conservative. I think the answer is to grow the economy, not to punish the American people with austerity.”

    His comments are remarkable in that they appear to contradict the core economic belief of the modern Republican Party that Gingrich hopes to lead. In this era of high deficits, austerity is routinely heralded by conservatives and GOP lawmakers as the path to economic prosperity, and the party was successful last year in keeping the issue atop the 2011 legislative agenda.
    Ron Paul Stands Strong in Support of Double-Dip Liberty

    Rep. Ron Paul appears to have been paid twice for flights between Washington, D.C., and his Congressional district, receiving reimbursement from taxpayers and also from a network of political and nonprofit organizations he controlled, according to public records and documents obtained by Roll Call.

    Roll Call identified eight flights for which the Texas Republican, a GOP presidential candidate and leading champion of smaller government, was reimbursed twice for the same trip. Roll Call also found dozens more instances of duplicate payments for travel from 1999 to 2009, totaling thousands of dollars' worth of excess payments, but the evidence in those cases is not as complete.

    Paul's office vigorously denies that the Congressman ever intentionally received multiple reimbursements for the same trips.

    Paul's office declined to make the Congressman available for an interview.

    Spokesman Jesse Benton said it was "possible that wholly inadvertent errors were made in a handful of instances" in which flights were reimbursed twice, but he maintained that "absolutely zero taxpayer funds were ever misused."

    Benton said those flights "may appear to show duplicative reimbursements because Congressman Paul's wife or a campaign staffer traveled with him. In such instances, the U.S. House would reimburse Congressman Paul's travel to D.C. for Congressional business, while his campaign or political action committee would reimburse his traveling companion's ticket." But Benton declined to discuss any of the trips in detail, arguing that the office does not have records for many of the years in question and that Roll Call was using "stolen" credit card records as the basis for the story.

    The available records name Paul as the traveler in most cases. In other cases in which tickets were purchased for Paul's wife, Carol, or for staffers, those tickets — identifiable by distinct prices, dates and flight paths — were reimbursed separately. In one case, Paul used a company credit card in his name to buy a ticket for his then-deputy chief of staff; Paul was then reimbursed by his Congressional office and also by his campaign.

    Roll Call obtained copies of credit card statements for a corporate American Express card assigned to Ron Paul & Associates Inc. on which many flights were purchased. The flight details on those statements matched payment records filed to the Federal Election Commission and office expenses itemized in quarterly Congressional disbursement statements published by the Chief Administrative Officer of the House.
    New Obama v Romney Polling Data

    President Barack Obama holds a clear lead over Mitt Romney in a hypothetical general election match-up, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

    Among all Americans, Obama leads Romney 52 to 43 percent, whereas among registered voters, the president has a narrower edge over Romney, 51 to 45 percent. This is the first time that Obama has more than 50 percent of the votes in a match-up against Romney among all Americans since July, when the president led the GOP candidate, 51 to 44 percent.

    But the president has progress to make in instilling economic confidence in Americans — asked which candidate can be trusted to do a better job in handling the economy, 48 percent of the general population picked Romney over 45 percent that picked Obama. The Republican front-runner also fared better job creation, narrowly beating Obama 47 to 45 percent, as well as the handling of the federal budget and deficit, 51 to 41 percent.

    It is the first time that the president has topped 50 percent in a match-up against Romney among registered voters.

    The survey also showed, however, that people trust Obama will be a better champion of the middle class than Romney, 55 to 37 percent. Also, 56 percent of the general population said they trust that the president would do a better job handling international affairs compared with just 37 percent that picked Romney. Similarly, the majority said the president’s handling of terrorism will be better than Romney’s, 56 to 36 percent.

    The president has been making a strong case for the so-called “Buffett Rule,” which would have the wealthy pay a higher rate of taxes – 72 percent indicated in the poll that they support raising taxes on Americans with annual incomes over one million dollars. Unfortunately for Romney, a whopping 66 percent said they believe his federal tax rate of about 14 percent was not fair.

    Obama is also seen as having a better understanding of the American people’s economic problems than Romney, 53 to 36 percent.

  3. #483
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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    The new poll is out. It shows Obama leading both Romney and Gingrich.

    And here is my updated list of Obama's accomplishments for people to consider:

    He has overhauled the food safety system;
    Advanced women's rights in the work place;
    Ended Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT) in our military;
    Stopped defending DOMA in court;
    Passed the Hate Crimes bill.;
    Appointed two pro-choice women to the Supreme Court;
    Expanded access to medical care and provided subsidies for people who can't afford it;
    Expanded the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP);
    Fixed the preexisting conditions travesty [and rescissions] in health insurance;
    Invested in clean energy;
    Overhauled the credit card industry, making it much more consumer-friendly;
    While Dodd-Frank bill was weak in many respects, it was still an extremely worthwhile start at re-regulating the financial sector;
    He created a Elizabeth Warren's dream agency: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau;
    He's done a lot for veterans;
    He got help for people whose health was injured during the clean-up after the 9/11 attacks;

    Vote Obama in 2012.
    Last edited by Dark Sage; 7th February 2012 at 10:57 PM.

  4. #484
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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    The new poll is out. It shows Obama leading both Romney and Gingrich.
    Curious question, what is the stats of the poll? What is the break down? How many percentage Democrats? How many percentage Republican? How many percentage Independents? OH! That's right, ABC/Washington Post refused to publish that result, curious aint it.

    And here is my updated list of Obama's accomplishments for people to consider:

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Fixed the preexistin*g conditions travesty [and rescission*s] in health insurance;
    More than likely will be overturned.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Invested in clean energy;
    Solyndra

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Overhauled the credit card industry, making it much more consumer-f*riendly;
    Which inturn caused the banks to force fees onto the consumers. A good example of Government stupidity on not realizing every action creates a reaction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    While Dodd-Frank bill was weak in many respects, it was still an extremely worthwhile start at re-regulat*ing the financial sector;
    While continuing to ignore the cause of the financial sector downfall.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    He's done a lot for veterans;
    I am sorry but isn't this the same bastard who wanted to try out the idea of Military Vets injuries suffered in the line of duty to be handled by Private Health Insurance, thus making it harder for them to get it? That it created so much hatred that Veterans groups had to go to the White House to force him to change it?

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/...sial_thir.html
    Last edited by Roy Karrde; 6th February 2012 at 08:53 PM.

  5. #485
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    You know, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the Affordable Health Care Act, I'm going to have so much fun telling every member of the GOP who's so sure they won't, "I told you so".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    You know, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the Affordable Health Care Act, I'm going to have so much fun telling every member of the GOP who's so sure they won't, "I told you so".
    If they do, it will just energize the GOP to put in a President to overturn it. You want to have the GOP to turn out in droves, have them keep the act in.

    By the way since you seem to be so keen to point out Obama's green energy policy. One of the Car Companies other than Solyndra that received the money, not only is using to create jobs in... Finland. But in the U.S. they are laying off people.

    Fisker Automotive, the electric car company that received a half-billion dollars in Energy Department loan guarantees, announced layoffs at its Delaware production facility Monday.

    The Energy Department agreed to loans totaling $528 million for two Fisker electric car projects: a luxury model — the$103,000 Karma which is on sale now — and a more affordable sedan, the Nina. …

    “We have temporarily delayed work at the plant based on ongoing discussions with the DOE regarding funding for the Project Nina program. As a result, we have laid-off 26 people,” the company said in a statement Monday


    http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/06/auto...source=cnn_bin

    Hey it's only half a billion right?

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    Another thing I find strange, Roy, is how you were so sure that the polls were legit and accurate when the GOP was winning, but now that they aren't, you question their accuracy.

    And please, stop providing links to conservative periodicals. Do you think they're really going to put Mr. Obama in a positive light?

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Another thing I find strange, Roy, is how you were so sure that the polls were legit and accurate when the GOP was winning, but now that they aren't, you question their accuracy.
    Because usually polls provide a partisan break down, and while generally it favors the Democrats, you can atleast see what percentage Republicans, Independents, and Democrats they polls. When a poll suddenly does not provide it, and the numbers are suddenly really good for the candidate, questions arise as to how skewed the poll was in favor of that candidate.

    Edit: Hell even a Democratic Pollster at the Huffington Post points out the flaws in this poll go beyond just a failure to produce a breakdown.

    Today the Washington Post/ABC News released a survey showing Obama over majority support among registered voters (51% Obama, 45% Romney). But as Romney’s pollster Neil Newhouse (a partner in the firm Public Opinion Strategies) pointed out in a blast email, the poll asked about a few of Romney potential liabilities just prior to the vote question. This goes against polling best practices, and it’s possible the survey shows elevated Obama numbers as a result.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/margie...b_1257642.html

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    And please, stop providing links to conservative periodicals. Do you think they're really going to put Mr. Obama in a positive light?
    CNN Money is a Conservative Periodical?
    Last edited by Roy Karrde; 8th February 2012 at 06:41 AM.

  9. #489
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    Hey, Roy, want to know something that the Supreme Court will almost definately rule unconstituional?

    The Constintutional Amendment that some conservatives want defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman, which all the GOP candidates have signed a moral obligation to support.

    And I thought you didn't like the Huffington Post.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Hey, Roy, want to know something that the Supreme Court will almost definately rule unconstituional?

    The Constintutional Amendment that some conservatives want defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman, which all the GOP candidates have signed a moral obligation to support.
    And I care about this why? It isn't going to be passed anyway and is a move to satisfy part of the base. The Republicans are looking to pick up a majority in the Senate but not a 2/3rd's majority.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    And I thought you didn't like the Huffington Post.
    So.. I can't post a article there pointing out that there is a Bi Partisan opposition to this poll?

  11. #491
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    You're right, Roy, polls are often inaccurate.

    I remember the 2008 campaign fondly. Many Republican voters, you included, were so fond of providing links to polls that predicted victory for McCain. Including one ridiculous one that showed every single state in the red. It actually thought McCain would win 100% of the electoral vote.

    The last President to do that was George Washington. Go figure.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    You're right, Roy, polls are often inaccurate.

    I remember the 2008 campaign fondly. Many Republican voters, you included, were so fond of providing links to polls that predicted victory for McCain. Including one ridiculous one that showed every single state in the red. It actually thought McCain would win 100% of the electoral vote.

    The last President to do that was George Washington. Go figure.
    Umm I do not remember posting said poll, if you wish to go back through my history and find it please do so and I will clearly admit that I never posted the poll. But I doubt it exists, furthermore I am not attacking you, nor am I attacking Democrats, nor am I attacking all polls. I am saying this single poll, has enough questions on it, and enough outright problems with it, that it largely invalidates itself.

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    Actually, the criticism of the survey methodology used is pretty weak. They even admit this in the link provided: although an aspect of personal criticism against Romney was brought up, there were additionally questions relating to political criticism against Obama. One can question the proximity of these questions to the presidential preference poll, but the only way to tell whether these actually had an inflating effect for Obama is through additional polling. One could also posit that the large number of opening questions which allowed one to reflect on the negatives of Obama's job performance would also have a negative effect on his results.

    It is not strictly true that one must ask the "who should be president" question first. Consider that asking it near the end allows for the surveyed individual to actually think about the implications of their choice (and their given opinions with regard to each candidate's actions and policies). As I said, the remaining question is one of negative proximity - but the survey does not just rail against Romney before asking the question, so it does not just instantly invalidate the result. It might actually make for a better poll, in the long run, as there is still a great deal of individual reflection to be done before election day.

    Luckily, we have around 10 months to take another poll to see where the race stands, and whether this result was biased (for whatever reason).

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Also, actual events have come to pass.

    Some unbound caucus delegates:





    And our straw poll:



    Is this world-shattering for Romney's momentum? Perhaps not. He seems to be intentionally not mobilizing his resources in states which conduct unbound caucuses, aiming for the bound or proportionally distributed contests. This strategy is still working for him, delegate-wise, as he is sitting with a substantial lead. Romney has spent no money in CO or MN, and he visited each state only a few times, while Santorum had almost two dozen campaign stops.

    Of course, the unbound delegates that Santorum has been focusing on are able to switch at the convention - a Romney/Santorum ticket still seems to be on the table. Santorum's caucus strategy ensures that Paul is unable to dominate the contests he traditionally has an advantage in, and Gingrich is simply unsuccessful at competing with Romney in an open fight (aside from where he has a native son advantage).

    The late February contests will be much more indicative of where Romney will stand on Super Tuesday: as proportional and winner-take-all primaries, he will pour on the campaign presence, and resume actually spending campaign dollars.

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    I almost wish that Santorum wins the nomination. Obama can practically start writing his acceptance speech for his second inauguration if that happens.

    Edit: Roy, that crazy poll that I mentioned; you didn't post it personally, but a lot of idiots I had to deal with did. I forget now where it came from or what research was used to conduct it. It was clearly very biased.
    Last edited by Dark Sage; 8th February 2012 at 11:37 AM.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    You know, I dont like Santorum as his record suggests he is another big spending "Compassionate Conservative" like Bush was. And I do not want to go through that mess again. However I would not write him off just yet, mainly because he is Catholic, and Obama in his infinite stupidity decided to pick a fight not only with the Catholic Church but with Separation of Church and State at the same time. And this issue will end up haunting Obama through the rest of the campaign, and Santorum has the religious credentials to use this in a way that can get Liberal Catholics on his side.

    Edit:
    Quote Originally Posted by Kunai
    Actually, the criticism of the survey methodology used is pretty weak. They even admit this in the link provided: although an aspect of personal criticism against Romney was brought up, there were additionally questions relating to political criticism against Obama. One can question the proximity of these questions to the presidential preference poll, but the only way to tell whether these actually had an inflating effect for Obama is through additional polling. One could also posit that the large number of opening questions which allowed one to reflect on the negatives of Obama's job performance would also have a negative effect on his results.

    It is not strictly true that one must ask the "who should be president" question first. Consider that asking it near the end allows for the surveyed individual to actually think about the implications of their choice (and their given opinions with regard to each candidate's actions and policies). As I said, the remaining question is one of negative proximity - but the survey does not just rail against Romney before asking the question, so it does not just instantly invalidate the result. It might actually make for a better poll, in the long run, as there is still a great deal of individual reflection to be done before election day.

    Luckily, we have around 10 months to take another poll to see where the race stands, and whether this result was biased (for whatever reason).
    I would actually suggest reading the break down of the poll here,

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...ll_020412.html

    Specifically what is asked RIGHT before the questions on Romney vs Obama

    "Do you think of Romney’s wealth as more of a (positive because it suggests he has achieved the American dream) or as more of a (negative because it suggests he benefited from opportunities that are not available to most people)?"

    "Romney paid about a 14 percent federal tax rate on income of about 22 million dollars last year. Do you think he is or is not paying his fair share of taxes? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?"

    followed right up with.

    "If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama, the Democrat) and ([ITEM], the Republican), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Obama) or toward (ITEM)?"

    Granted they talk about Obama's pluses and minuses further down in the poll, but immediately before they ask about a Romney vs Obama match up, they go with two ( if not three if you count mormonism ) things that discount Romney. Thus putting it fresh in the person's mind ( unlike Obama's negatives and positives which are further down in the questioning and thus not front of mind ). As noted by the Democratic pollster, that is pathetically bad polling.
    Last edited by Roy Karrde; 8th February 2012 at 02:29 PM.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Roy, I tend to doubt it.

    There are Conservatives, and there is Rick Santorum. He wants to reinstate DADT. (I wouldn't be surprised if his personal view is that homosexuals should be in jail.) He's so pro-life, he'd tell a rape victim that she'd have to carry her attacker's child.

    What does this mean? With Romney, it's possible that some Independents that voted for Obama last time will change their mind this time. Santorum is far too conservative to do that. He'll also lose the vote of every minority, and no Democrat will even consider supporting him.

    In fact, Roy, if Santorum ever becomes President, here is my promise. I'll take back everything I've said on this thread and post a two-thousand word essay on the good points of the Republican Party.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Roy, I tend to doubt it.

    There are Conservatives, and there is Rick Santorum. He wants to reinstate DADT. (I wouldn't be surprised if his personal view is that homosexuals should be in jail.) He's so pro-life, he'd tell a rape victim that she'd have to carry her attacker's child.

    What does this mean? With Romney, it's possible that some Independents that voted for Obama last time will change their mind this time. Santorum is far too conservative to do that. He'll also lose the vote of every minority, and no Democrat will even consider supporting him.

    In fact, Roy, if Santorum ever becomes President, here is my promise. I'll take back everything I've said on this thread and post a two-thousand word essay on the good points of the Republican Party.
    Thing is, is that you won't see Santorum talk about DADT if he wants to attack Obama, he will be talking about Obama's attack on the Catholic Church. I mean why go after DADT when you can make every Catholic feel like their religion is under attack? This was on full display last night during his speech by the way. And as noted by people, this issue is something that is bringing Liberal and Conservative Catholics together in opposition of Obama.

    Want a further idea on how badly this is for Obama with the Catholic base, I would suggest reading this.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/...,2263608.story

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Karrde View Post
    I would actually suggest reading the break down of the poll here,

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...ll_020412.html

    Specifically what is asked RIGHT before the questions on Romney vs Obama

    "Do you think of Romney’s wealth as more of a (positive because it suggests he has achieved the American dream) or as more of a (negative because it suggests he benefited from opportunities that are not available to most people)?"

    "Romney paid about a 14 percent federal tax rate on income of about 22 million dollars last year. Do you think he is or is not paying his fair share of taxes? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?"

    followed right up with.

    "If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama, the Democrat) and ([ITEM], the Republican), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Obama) or toward (ITEM)?"

    Granted they talk about Obama's pluses and minuses further down in the poll, but immediately before they ask about a Romney vs Obama match up, they go with two ( if not three if you count mormonism ) things that discount Romney. Thus putting it fresh in the person's mind ( unlike Obama's negatives and positives which are further down in the questioning and thus not front of mind ). As noted by the Democratic pollster, that is pathetically bad polling.
    I, of course, did actually read the breakdown of the poll. How else would I have known the order of the questions? Also, as opposed to your suggestion, they actually ask about Obama's performance directly before the presidential ballot question - Romney's "negatives" are 5 or 6 items higher. We can also consider the fact that only one nearby question actually gains a opposing reaction (q. 30)... and there is a much closer negative question for Obama (q. 31(e)).

    Regardless, you are either misreading or exaggerating the criticism in the article you provide. A 'proximity bias' (if one exists, and clearly it would not be strictly for Romney) can be cancelled out by a similar 'reflection bias'. In either event, negatives and positives will be portrayed accordingly in the end results for the later question - the person taking the survey has to actually recognize them as swaying issues in order for them to be taken into account in the preference poll. This is valuable data.

    The criticism at large is not that the result is thus invalid, but that it is not comparable to the other polling style (preference first, depth later). As such, you can not say that this poll is a clear movement for the purposes of horserace analysis (when compared with polls which use a wholly different methodology). But you can say that it provides useful information about what people's preferences would be after taking the time to reflect on other pertinent issues - such as, say, over another half year of election campaigning.

    If there is a question order bias, it will be flushed out through further polling. In the meantime, what we have shouldn't just be ignored - and Omero says just as much.
    Last edited by kurai; 8th February 2012 at 02:55 PM. Reason: let's talk about research methodology instead of how terrible obama is

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by kurai View Post
    I, of course, did actually read the breakdown of the poll. How else would I have known the order of the questions? Also, as opposed to your suggestion, they actually ask about Obama's performance directly before the presidential ballot question - Romney's "negatives" are 5 or 6 items higher. We can also consider the fact that only one nearby question actually gains a opposing reaction (q. 30)... and there is a much closer negative question for Obama (q. 31(e)).
    You forget that 31b is also considered a attack on Romney thus you would consider that one a wash especially in light of the Romney hit job done in the previous few questions.

    Quote Originally Posted by kurai View Post
    Regardless, you are either misreading or exaggerating the criticism in the article you provide. A 'proximity bias' (if one exists, and clearly it would not be strictly for Romney) can be cancelled out by a similar 'reflection bias'. In either event, negatives and positives will be portrayed accordingly in the end results for the later question - the person taking the survey has to actually recognize them as swaying issues in order for them to be taken into account in the preference poll. This is valuable data.

    The criticism at large is not that the result is thus invalid, but that it is not comparable to the other polling style (preference first, depth later). As such, you can not say that this poll is a clear movement for the purposes of horserace analysis (when compared with polls which use a wholly different methodology). But you can say that it provides useful information about what people's preferences would be after taking the time to reflect on other pertinent issues - such as, say, over another half year of election campaigning.
    Actually what I am doing is parroting what a professional pollster who has worked in the industry for decades both for a Democratic Campaign, and for Bi Partisan research has been saying, not to mention is the President of a public opinion research firm. So excuse me if I take her experience on the dangers of a proximity bias more than some one who hasn't. Do a couple years in major polling and make your own public research firm and then you can have the same experience as her in comparison of what is invalid and not invalid in polling style.
    Last edited by Roy Karrde; 8th February 2012 at 02:56 PM.

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    Okay Roy... Since it's clear that you'll support any member of the GOP (I remember you supporting Bachmann, Cain, and even Palin) Here's something that a very well-known Republican said today about Santorum.

    (Keep in mind, I still think that Donald Trump is one of the biggest idiots in existence, but this statement he made does make a little sense.)

    "Rick Santorum is a sitting senator who, in re-election, lost by nineteen points. To my knowledge, the most in the history of this country for a sitting senator to lose by is nineteen points. Then he goes out and says, 'Oh, okay, I just lost by the biggest margin in history, now I'm going to run for President.' Tell me, how does that work?

    "That's like me saying I just failed a test, now I'm going to apply to the Wharton School of Finance."

    And Roy... I know that Santorum isn't dumb enough to bring up DADT on his own in a debate. But he'd be even dumber to think that Obama won't use it against him. Because Obama isn't dumb either.

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    I'm not sure why you think q. 31(a) or 31(b) would be an "attack" given that they receive either a great deal of support or a vast majority finding them to be of no importance. This is the opposite of a negative bias! A potentially positive influence.

    If you are just parroting someone else's opinion without any actual experience or training, why are you posting at all? Regardless, I did not say she was wrong, only that she is not talking about the same thing you think she is. She advocates avoiding potential complications in order to provide comparable polling for the horserace discussion - but the question order and style is still not "deliberate" or "definite" negative persuasion, and the result stands on its own merits.

    She even uses the poll's own evidence to suggest it could potentially be comparable: "over half of voters say the more they learn about Romney, the less they like him (a question that appeared before the series of questions on Romney's liabilities)", "tracking shows Romney's unfavorables continue to surge while Obama has opened up a larger lead".

    edit: It is valid to ask an important question at the end of a survey. You just can't pretend it is the same as asking it at the beginning, because even if your questions are neutral on the whole, the opinion of the surveyed person will have time to consider the issues you have added. In this case, you then receive data about what the person chooses after reflecting on the issue, rather than what they think in an unprompted manner. Lots of surveys are conducted this way - how would surveys work at all if anything at the end must automatically be dismissed? You need a greater sample with varied question order to determine whether or not one style is actually providing bias - since they don't have the money to do this in a short-term tracking poll, you can only look at whether the questions are blatantly biased, which is not the case in the given opinion of the professional pollster.
    Last edited by kurai; 8th February 2012 at 03:12 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Okay Roy... Since it's clear that you'll support any member of the GOP (I remember you supporting Bachmann, Cain, and even Palin) Here's something that a very well-known Republican said today about Santorum.
    I will not support Ron Paul, I would crawl over Broken Glass to make sure that Ron Paul does not get elected. I would elect Palin just because I have had two personal experiences with her, and both times I found her to be a very sweet and charming person.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    "Rick Santorum is a sitting senator who, in re-election, lost by nineteen points. To my knowledge, the most in the history of this country for a sitting senator to lose by is nineteen points. Then he goes out and says, 'Oh, okay, I just lost by the biggest margin in history, now I'm going to run for President.' Tell me, how does that work?

    "That's like me saying I just failed a test, now I'm going to apply to the Wharton School of Finance."

    And Roy... I know that Santorum isn't dumb enough to bring up DADT on his own in a debate. But he'd be even dumber to think that Obama won't use it against him. Because Obama isn't dumb either.
    Obama can try to use it against him, but there would need to be a big enough gain for Obama to do so, and unlike this Catholic thing which is more of a recent event it probably would not resonate as much with the voters.

    Quote Originally Posted by kurai
    I'm not sure why you think q. 31(a) or 31(b) would be an "attack" given that they receive either a great deal of support or a vast majority finding them to be of no importance. This is the opposite of a negative bias! A potentially positive influence.
    The mention of Mormonism has long been seen as a tactic used to split people on Romney, infact going in it was seen as a fairly large weakness for Romney.
    Last edited by Roy Karrde; 8th February 2012 at 03:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Karrde View Post
    The mention of Mormonism has long been seen as a tactic used to split people on Romney, infact going in it was seen as a fairly large weakness for Romney.
    Mormonism does not poll as a weakness. What do you suggest this means? A person will be reminded that he is a Mormon, say it doesn't matter, then say they would not vote for him on that secret basis?

    This is a valid concern. But not a practical one, because the inverse is true if you ask the questions in the other order: I would vote for him, and then it does not matter when I am reminded he is a Mormon (because I do not want to contradict myself).

    edit: Either way, this is a misdirect, as Obama's negatives are more proximate to the question at issue.

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    You know Roy, some would say that just being Catholic makes it an uphill battle for Santorum.

    We've had one Catholic President in the history of this country, and even you must admit, Santorum is no Kennedy.

    And please don't get into JFK's faults. I know all about them. He was a very popular President and a civil rights leader. I doubt Santorum will be the same. Like I said, he will oppose gay rights.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kurai View Post
    Mormonism does not poll as a weakness. What do you suggest this means? A person will be reminded that he is a Mormon, say it doesn't matter, then say they would not vote for him on that secret basis?

    This is a valid concern. But not a practical one, because the inverse is true if you ask the questions in the other order: I would vote for him, and then it does not matter when I am reminded he is a Mormon (because I do not want to contradict myself).
    That is not how many Republican pollsters or consultants feel either this cycle or the last, who saw that Romney's mormonism and the fact that the religion has a strange "Occult" feel to it, would be a weakness for Romney. Even Leftist websites like Slate have noticed the problems it poses for him.

    National polls taken in recent months show how far anti-black prejudice has subsided compared to anti-Mormon prejudice. In a Gallup survey, 5 percent of adults said they wouldn’t vote for their party’s presidential nominee if he were black. Six percent said they wouldn’t vote for a woman, 7 percent said they wouldn’t vote for a Catholic, 9 percent said they wouldn’t vote for a Jew, and 10 percent said they wouldn’t vote for a Hispanic. But 22 percent said they wouldn’t vote for a Mormon. Gallup reported:

    The stability in U.S. bias against voting for a Mormon presidential candidate contrasts markedly with steep declines in similar views toward several other groups over the past half-century, including blacks, women, Catholics, and Jews. The last time as many as 22% of Americans said they would not vote for any of these groups (the same level opposed to voting for a Mormon today) was 1959 for Catholics, 1961 for Jews, 1971 for blacks, and 1975 for women. As noted, opposition to voting for each of these has since tapered off to single digits.

    In a Pew survey, 7 percent of adults said they’d be more likely to support a presidential candidate if he were black. Only 3 percent said they’d be less likely. (Among whites, 3 percent said more likely; 4 percent said less likely.) But while 5 percent said they’d be more likely to support a presidential candidate if he were Mormon, 25 percent said they’d be less likely. In the four years since Pew’s last survey on this topic, taken in August 2007, the percentage of respondents who said they’d be less likely to support a black, Hispanic, or female candidate shrank. But the percentage who said they’d be less likely to support a Mormon didn’t change.

    In a Quinnipiac survey, 13 percent of voters said they’d be uncomfortable with a Catholic president, and 15 percent said they’d be uncomfortable with a Jewish president, but 36 percent said they’d be uncomfortable with a Mormon president. In a Lawrence Research survey, 4 percent of voters said they’d never consider voting for a Catholic presidential candidate, and the same number said they’d never consider voting for a Baptist, but 20 percent said they’d never consider voting for a Mormon. In a Poll Position survey, 32 percent of adults said they’d never support a Mormon for president.


    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._the_prej.html

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage
    You know Roy, some would say that just being Catholic makes it an uphill battle for Santorum.

    We've had one Catholic President in the history of this country, and even you must admit, Santorum is no Kennedy.

    And please don't get into JFK's faults. I know all about them. He was a very popular President and a civil rights leader. I doubt Santorum will be the same. Like I said, he will oppose gay rights.
    I wouldn't say that, specifically when Catholics make up a fairly large percentage of the voting block now, and they voted for Obama over McCain in the last cycle, being able to pull them off would help any Republican get to the White House.

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    Fine Roy...

    But I'd still wager any amount of money right now that Romney is going to win the nomination.

    Edit: By the way...

    I'm Catholic. Despite this, I have to side with Obama over this whole argument he's having with church leaders over mandated contraception.

    Of course, the Catholic church's stance on birth control is something I've disagreed with for years. And their very public stance against allowing gay marriage has rubbed me the wrong way too.

    I'm Catholic, I'm Liberal, but I'm avoiding Santorum like the plague.
    Last edited by Dark Sage; 8th February 2012 at 03:48 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Karrde View Post
    That is not how many Republican pollsters or consultants feel either this cycle or the last, who saw that Romney's mormonism and the fact that the religion has a strange "Occult" feel to it, would be a weakness for Romney. Even Leftist websites like Slate have noticed the problems it poses for him.
    Sure. Why else would you poll on the issue? In the most recent result (the one at hand), we find the number at 17% opposition.

    But we are discussing the effect that this question would have on the statistical validity of other polling questions. Simply knowing that people react to Mormonism is insufficient to make any scientific claims on this subject. It is too difficult to separate any potential before/after effect in a given group of people without a differently ordered comparable poll. Perhaps some automatically think Mormon when they hear Romney, and this result will play out at the 17-32% negation of support regardless of whether or not you ask any question about it.

    Along the same lines, this is also true for all the other questions in the survey which add potential bias (for any of the candidates) to the important final question. This does not make it invalid (you can use a scientific argument to suggest otherwise, if you want - research validity is a well-defined field), but rather that it is useful for a different purpose.

    As I said, the poll is "what do you think of this stuff, who should be president?", rather than "who should be president, what do you think of this stuff?". You can not directly expect the same result from these two different methods - but without good reason, neither is simply garbage to be tossed to the wind.

    But you can extrapolate the relationship between sets of concepts by performing polling in every available order - you can't tell whether Mormonism makes people disapprove of Romney, or whether liking Romney makes people ignore Mormonism without looking at it from both potential causal orders. This is why the data is valuable, but not strictly comparable. This is also the criticism that Omero gives.

    As an aside, it is a different scientific test to put together different groups of polls (as in the Slate article). To assess the causal relationship directly from this would be difficult. Instead, it is a question of external validity between varying people surveyed at different times and in different locations... and with potentially different methods and purposes to those surveys. Assuming you can find sets of data which allow for generalization, you still have no idea about the potential causality involved - you can only guess at the relationship, because you did not actually ask the question.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    definately
    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    unconstituional
    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Constintutional
    Triple mother of Christ, and this guy's a writer no less.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Karrde View Post
    I would elect Palin just because I have had two personal experiences with her, and both times I found her to be a very sweet and charming person.
    You know who's a very sweet and charming person?

    My grandmother.

    My grandmother, who is a spritely and generous old lady.

    My grandmother, who I love more than anyone in the senior citizen world and have nothing but gratitude and respect for.

    My grandmother, who is as

    dumb

    as

    a

    fucking

    BAG OF ROCKS.

    If you vote for someone just because they're nice, you're a fool. Kindness is a vital virtue for anyone; I will never deny that, but you have to be a slobbering braindead invertebrate to believe that a person who displays only kindness with no intelligence, authority, influence, and determination to back it up would make a good leader in the modern world.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    I'm sorry, Blade, it's hard to spell perfectly when you use an iPad, which is what I have to use when I'm at work.

    But I agree with you. I personally think that Romney is a very nice guy. (In fact, that's one of his problems. He's a little too nice with his rivals.) But I still don't intend to vote for him simply because he's nice.

    Of course, if the choice were between him and the downright nasty Gingrich, I'd probably choose Romney.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    You know who's a very sweet and charming person?

    My grandmother.

    My grandmother, who is a spritely and generous old lady.

    My grandmother, who I love more than anyone in the senior citizen world and have nothing but gratitude and respect for.

    My grandmother, who is as

    dumb

    as

    a

    fucking

    BAG OF ROCKS.

    If you vote for someone just because they're nice, you're a fool. Kindness is a vital virtue for anyone; I will never deny that, but you have to be a slobbering braindead invertebrate to believe that a person who displays only kindness with no intelligence, authority, influence, and determination to back it up would make a good leader in the modern world.
    That is very true, but by and large many of the Republicans out there share the vast majority of the same ideas, and same beliefs. Thus like Clinton vs Obama, it comes down to personal preference.

    Also to get a bit more back on topic, the President has decided to double down on being "Anti Separation of Church and State"

    Quote Originally Posted by ABCNews
    President Obama “reinforced” his stance on the controversial contraception mandate while speaking at the Democrats’ annual retreat at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. today, Senate Democrats said.

    The retreat was closed to media.

    Following President Obama’s speech at the retreat, a small group of Senate Democrats, mostly women, left the retreat early in order to hold a news conference on Capitol Hill to counter the Republicans’ news conference today at which they called for the mandate to be overturned…

    “The power to decide whether or not to use contraception lies with a woman – not her boss,” said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y. “What is more intrusive than trying to allow an employer to make medical decisions for someone who works for them?”
    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...ratic-retreat/

    First lets answer Gillibrand's question, Religiously-affiliated groups don’t claim the power to decide whether women employees should “use” contraception, if they did, we wouldn’t be having a conversation over who should pay for the contraception that their employees use.

    But more to the point this is shaping up to have all the characteristics of the cluster fuck that was Obamacare, how so? Lets look at what vulnerable Democrats are saying now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Casey
    “It’s a question of whether or not we’re going to allow — as we should — an institution that has a religious mission to make decisions that are consistent with their faith tradition,” Casey said. “Unfortunately what this does is impose upon them rules that I don’t think we should impose upon an institution that has a faith mission.”

    Casey has written to Obama asking him to reverse HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius’s decision.
    http://www.nationalreview.com/campai...-what-hes-done

    And what say you Tom Kaine?
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Kaine
    “I think the White House made a good decision in including a mandate for contraception coverage in the Affordable Care Act insurance policy, but I think they made a bad decision in not allowing a broad enough religious employer exemption,” Kaine said, according to a transcript of his remarks provided by his campaign.

    “This is something that’s been talked about a lot today and I have definitely expressed my grave concerns to the White House about that. I support the contraception mandate but there should be a religious employer exemption that is broader than the one they proposed.”
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/...vzQ_story.html

    And others too!

    Quote Originally Posted by Fox News
    Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who faces re-election in November, sent a letter to Obama complaining that the mandate is a "direct affront to religious freedoms."

    Rep. Dan Lipinski, D-Ill., said in January that the decision "violates the long-standing tradition of protection for conscience rights in federal law."
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...#ixzz1lrFRhctA

    Catholics are already planning to take to the streets in protest, and the polls are not looking good for Obama on this issue, so lets see where we are at, a Constitutional Violation, a tone deaf President, a angry populous, and vulnerable Democrats backing away.

    Good God President Obama is creating all the effects of the hatred and damage created by Obamacare with just a few months left to election day! EXCELLENT!

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    Like I said, Roy, I'm Catholic, I'm Liberal, and I agree with the President on this stupid arguement.

    The Catholic church's hardline stance on birth control has never been their most popular belief, btw. I know plenty of Catholics who defy the church and regularly use contraception.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    I'm surprised Romney has the lead being religion always seems to be a factor in these things. Romney is openly Mormon I believe.

    It's coming down to "who can beat Obama" in the GOP all the time not their platforms.

    Anyway I'm Voting Ron Paul in the primaries.

    The Problem with Texas At least - In Texas you are not bound by any party.
    AS in you can be An Obama voter voting in the Republican primary, vs 4 years ago were you only could choose one or the other.
    What if pro Obama people were voting x republican candidate in the primaries instead of y because y is too much of a threat?
    just a thought.
    Last edited by homeofmew; 9th February 2012 at 08:14 AM.
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    Get real. In Texas, the GOP rules. End of story.

    Come to think of it, Obama did better there in 2008 than any Democrat in a long time.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    shrug, Here in Houston we have Mayor Annise D. Parker who is openly gay.
    we aren't the bible bashing conservatives you think we are. not to say there aren't those types here.

    You'd be surprised how many people voted Obama here in 08 despite it being a "red GOP" state.

    However the reason Texas went to Mc Cain on 08 because of massive voter turnout of the Christians over the obama people.
    (Despite many people voted that normally don't vote)

    :|. I voted in 08 the lines were long
    Last edited by homeofmew; 9th February 2012 at 08:25 AM.
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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Like I said, Roy, I'm Catholic, I'm Liberal, and I agree with the President on this stupid arguement.

    The Catholic church's hardline stance on birth control has never been their most popular belief, btw. I know plenty of Catholics who defy the church and regularly use contraception.
    Two problems, this isn't about the Catholic church and contraception, it is about the separation of church and state. Second, the Catholic Church would not be forced to just pay for say condoms, they would be forced to pay for things that include even sterilization.

    Finally you may be Catholic and Liberal, but from the polls of voters, you are also in the minority.

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    Fine, Roy.

    Remember the Seperation of Church and State thing when Santorum argues against gay rights because of his religious views on homosexuality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    Fine, Roy.

    Remember the Seperation of Church and State thing when Santorum argues against gay rights because of his religious views on homosexuality.
    And that is fine for him, he may have religion shape his judgement on things, however if the church begins to order or force that he act a certain way then you have a problem. Just like Obama is mandating that the church must act a certain way.
    Last edited by Roy Karrde; 9th February 2012 at 10:11 AM.

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    He's not mandating that the church act in a certain-way. He's mandating that institutions funded by the church follow the same rules as anyone else.

    The church can have any opinion that they want, but exceptions cannot be made to the health care rules put in effect for anyone else. If a woman wants birth control pills, and her employer doesn't believe in using them, she shouldn't have to quit her job and get another one in order to get health insurance that covers them.

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    Default Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Sage View Post
    He's not mandating that the church act in a certain-way. He's mandating that institutions funded by the church follow the same rules as anyone else.

    The church can have any opinion that they want, but exceptions cannot be made to the health care rules put in effect for anyone else. If a woman wants birth control pills, and her employer doesn't believe in using them, she shouldn't have to quit her job and get another one in order to get health insurance that covers them.
    Which is a distinction with out a difference as those institutions are a arm of the church. And if a woman wishes to get birth control she can go out and buy it, the employer is not the only place that a person can find birth control, it is widely available at any market. The church nor the Government should violate the line of Church and State to provide what is a easily bought product.

    I will remind you also that the Supreme Court also has upheld the fact that religious institutions are a arm of the Church and subject to the same exemptions from the law that a church does. In fact the decision was so easy to make I do not believe even one judge dissented.

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