2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Dark Sage]

Really? You have talked to EVERY Democrat in the country? Have you polled Democrats across the country? Didn't think so. Sorry but "What I heard" does not justify you as a polling organization.

Not every one, but I hear support for Obama on news message boards and chat rooms all the time. The common thread among what they say is that Romney is a liar and a fraud, and that him being President would be much like the Bush Administration.

Whenever a Republican shows up in these places, his attacks on Obama get about a dozen counter-responses, and woe to those who show up wanting him to release his college records.

What's your source, may I ask?

[Roy Karrde]

Not every one, but I hear support for Obama on news message boards and chat rooms all the time. The common thread among what they say is that Romney is a liar and a fraud, and that him being President would be much like the Bush Administration.

Whenever a Republican shows up in these places, his attacks on Obama get about a dozen counter-responses, and woe to those who show up wanting him to release his college records.

What's your source, may I ask?

So your response is partisan message board users... Yeah...

My source? That would be Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156194/de...2004-2008.aspx

But hey it is only a widely respected nation polling organization, how can that compete with Message Board Posters!

[Dark Sage]

So you think poll trumps the ones I've provided because, if true, it's good news for Romney. You're basically saying that this poll is better than those polls.

Good one, Roy.

In other news, Gingrich, Cain, Bachmann, and Perry will NOT be speaking at the Convention, as they were not invited to.

Showing that whoever is running it has common sense that is unusual for the GOP. Whether this person will retain this common sense and keep Trump and Palin out of it, remains to be seen.

[Roy Karrde]

So you think poll trumps the ones I've provided because, if true, it's good news for Romney. You're basically saying that this poll is better than those polls.

Good one, Roy.

No I think it does because it has a parity number of Republican + 1, nothing outlandish like Democrat + 9 and more in line with the 2010 returns. Furthermore it backs up two other things that have been noticed.

A: The lack of turnout for Obama at events compared to 2008

B: The lower fundraising Obama is getting in currently.

[Dark Sage]

I'd like to point something out, if I may.

At a campaign event in May, Romney appeared to endorse a supporter's idea for a constitutional amendment stating that a “president has to spend at least three years working in business before he can become president of the United States."

Romney continued, "You see, then he or she would understand that the policies they're putting into place have to encourage small business, make it easier for business to grow.”

The problem is, Ryan does not meet this criteria. As the Associated Press notes:

At 42, Ryan has spent almost half of his life in the Washington fold, the last 14 representing a southern Wisconsin district that runs from the shores of Lake Michigan through farm country south of Madison.

Now, before you say that Obama doesn't meet this criteria either, don't. He most certainly does. Here's his full resume, although I doubt it will satisfy the Birthers; as you can see, he's worked for no less than eleven for-profit businesses:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...m-business-am/

Of course, working in an ice cream store isn't exactly the type of job that Romney is used to, but it shows that Obama had to work his way up from the ground, unlike Romney, who started at the top.

[Dark Sage]

Oh, Roy? Since you respect Gallup Polls so much, take a look at this one:

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...1#.UCkv2chSTDU

Ryan doesn't seem all-too popular if you ask me.

[Roy Karrde]

Oh, Roy? Since you respect Gallup Polls so much, take a look at this one:

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...1#.UCkv2chSTDU

Ryan doesn't seem all-too popular if you ask me.

He also is a fairly unknown figure as the poll points out, however his energy and enthusiasm is driving people to see him, as 10,000+ people who packed the event in High Point North Carolina yesterday can attest.

But since you seem so eager to put up some polls try this one.

In weekend interviews 38 percent responded favorably to Ryan joining the Republican ticket, up from 23 percent in pre-selection interviews last week. Positive views rose among independents as well as among Republicans, and among women. And Ryan was notably well-received among senior citizens – a group of interest given his plan to reshape Medicare.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...tive-movement/

Ryan is seeing a rise in women, independents, and seniors.

Also I would suggest looking at this poll.

“Thought given to the election” is one of Gallup’s “likely voter” questions, and is a predictor of voter turnout. The current data, from a July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll, would suggest that voter turnout among the voting-age population will be lower in 2012 than it was in 2004 (55%) and 2008 (57%), but higher than in the 2000 election (51%).

The percentage of Americans thinking about the election typically increases over the course of the campaign; thus, more Americans should be paying attention to the election during the party conventions, debates, and final push to Election Day.

....

The “closely follow” question also shows a party difference, with 87% of Republicans and 79% of Democrats saying they are following news of the election closely. The party gap is even greater among those paying very close attention — 45% vs. 33%, respectively.

If Democrats continue to lose to Republicans on enthusiasm then we may see a turnout of Republicans that surpasses Democrats, something NO poll I have seen has predicted and something that should theoretically propel Mitt Romney to a easy if not a landslide win.

[Dark Sage]

You keep counting on low Democrat voter turnout.

It's a gamble that every serious GOP voter my father and I are debating with seems to be hedging his bets on. It seems that all of you are counting on that one factor.

What happens if you're wrong?

[Roy Karrde]

You keep counting on low Democrat voter turnout.

It's a gamble that every serious GOP voter my father and I are debating with seems to be hedging his bets on. It seems that all of you are counting on that one factor.

What happens if you're wrong?

It all depends on the independents then, but a high Democrat voter turn out could easily win Obama the seat as it did in 2008, but currently polls and information like the low turn out at Obama functions ( Obama held a $50 dollar a plate fundraiser yesterday and it was only half full! ), and Obama's fundraising problems point to a split turn out at best like in 2010, or maybe even a slightly up Republican turn out, in which case Mitt Romney would seem to easily win. Even in a slight up Democratic turn out, Mitt Romney would have a chance of winning as some polls put him significantly ahead of Obama in terms of independents.