2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Roy Karrde]

So you think poll trumps the ones I've provided because, if true, it's good news for Romney. You're basically saying that this poll is better than those polls.

Good one, Roy.

No I think it does because it has a parity number of Republican + 1, nothing outlandish like Democrat + 9 and more in line with the 2010 returns. Furthermore it backs up two other things that have been noticed.

A: The lack of turnout for Obama at events compared to 2008

B: The lower fundraising Obama is getting in currently.

[homeofmew]

And ladies and gentlemen, this makes 2000 replies in less than a year. Top work one and all.

Yeah I also noticed this thread is almost 1 yr old.

[Dark Sage]

Yeah I also noticed this thread is almost 1 yr old.

I know Mew, and it seems even longer.

Like I once said, this is the Year of the Dragon on the Chinese calendar, which means, being an election year, it tends to "drag on" longer than usual.

[Roy Karrde]

Rumor has it we should see the running mate announced tomorrow, some are saying even as soon as 9 am tomorrow morning. The two latest are either Paul Ryan or Scott Walker. Really I know the Democrats love to demonize Paul Ryan as wanting to kill Grandma, but he is a utter genius and would run circles around the mental midget of a VP we have now in the debates.

Edit: AP confirms its tomorrow.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...08-10-23-20-38

Edit Again: Drudge says these are the final names on the list ( SOURCES: Final names Ryan, Rubio, Pawlenty, Christie, Portman and one unnamed wild card )

Edit AGAIN Again: NBC News and Gretta from Fox are saying its Paul Ryan!

[Andrew]

Don't know if this has been brought up already, but have you guys seen this?

http://www.isidewith.com/

My results were pretty lol. http://www.isidewith.com/results/44167238

Apparently American Domestic Policy is my #2 concern. I suppose it is a bit ironic. Another country taking so much interest in shaping the domestic policy of another.

[Dark Sage]

I heard.

Seems Mitt is going for the economic angle here...

I suppose Roy is gonna say this is a good thing, despite the fact that Ryan has even less experience than Palin did... He certainly isn't the "safe choice" that Romney claimed he wanted.

[Roy Karrde]

I suppose Roy is gonna say this is a good thing, despite the fact that Ryan has even less experience than Palin did... He certainly isn't the "safe choice" that Romney claimed he wanted.

He was elected to national office in 1999, Palin assumed the Governorship in 2006.

Overall at Townhall.com they are saying this is a gamechanger.

"Any way you slice it, this is a game-changer. As I wrote earlier this week, Paul Ryan is one of the sunniest, most likeable conservatives on the scene today. He’s also the party’s top wonk and is completely fluent in fiscal issues. I predict that Democrats will publicly gloat over this pick (“he’ll be so easy to demonize!”), even as they privately worry. Paul Ryan is earnest, smart, articulate, attractive, calm, good-humored, and exceptionally gifted in explaining his case in persuasive and unthreatening terms. He’s from the Midwest, has blue collar appeal (unlike Romney, he did not grow up wealthy), and has a beautiful young family. The Left will launch vicious and totally dishonest attacks, as they have throughout the last two years of budget debates. But never before has Paul Ryan enjoyed a larger platform from which to make his case to the American public: The country is going broke, a fiscal calamity awaits, but we can avoid it if we take responsible, urgent action. This campaign is about to get a major (and needed) injection of seriousness."



Come Back Team!

[Asilynne]

Mitt and his VP were in my home town this afternoon! There were some good speeches and people were lined up all around the block, everyone was so fired up it was a pretty cool experience! I got waved at when the motorcade went by ;D

[Dark Sage]

I meant in terms of age, Roy. My apologies.

Still, I would say that Ryan is not the "safe pick" that Romney said he wanted. Need I bring up something called the Ryan Budget?

[Roy Karrde]

I meant in terms of age, Roy. My apologies.

He will be nearly 43 by the time they take the White House. That is only like a year younger than Kennedy, and a few years younger than Obama, and Paul Ryan certainly beats Obama in terms of experience. But he looks young, that we can both agree on, something that will play well with voters. Remember how much Obama's youth and handsomeness was played up in 2008? Same applies here.

Still, I would say that Ryan is not the "safe pick" that Romney said he wanted. Need I bring up something called the Ryan Budget?

Of course, this is obviously a shake up and a sign that Mitt Romney realizes that even though he is largely polling even with Obama, he needs to make a Game Changer because he should be running away with it right now.

[Dark Sage]

I dunno Roy.

Ryan seems like the same deal as Romney. A businessman who's going to make things better for the rich, not someone who will appeal to the middle class.

And don't count your chickens before they hatch. Do that, and you get rotten eggs.

By the way, Roy, in a poll taken last week on prospective Romney picks, Ryan didn't do too well. About 38% of responders hadn't even heard of him.

See for yourself: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...re-these-guys/

[Roy Karrde]

I dunno Roy.

Ryan seems like the same deal as Romney. A businessman who's going to make things better for the rich, not someone who will appeal to the middle class.

That is where you are wrong, as you and others will quickly learn Paul Ryan is a young, energetic young man that is pretty much a genius and can appeal to the middle class and independents. Lets not forget that Paul Ryan's district has not voted for a Republican President since Ronald Reagan, and yet he continues to win election there even as Obama won the district. Being a powerful Republican and winning in a decisively Democratic district says alot about his ability to sway voters.

And don't count your chickens before they hatch. Do that, and you get rotten eggs.

I agree, but I have to admit that is kind of ironic coming from you, how many promises and bets have you made in this thread?

[Dark Sage]

See above post. I edited it.

And since it's after midnight, and I've been up 18 hours, I'm going to bed.

[Roy Karrde]

See above post. I edited it.

And since it's after midnight, and I've been up 18 hours, I'm going to bed.

Alrighty then.

By the way, Roy, in a poll taken last week on prospective Romney picks, Ryan didn't do too well. About 38% of responders hadn't even heard of him.

See for yourself: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...re-these-guys/

62% is pretty high, and I am sure the next few days will act as even more of a roll out for Paul Ryan. Here is a poll by the Democrat polling form PPP that you on the other hand should note.

http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-...lection-2012-7

Put it simply in Wisconsin atleast and possibly elsewhere, a Romney-Ryan ticket is in a dead heat with Obama in a Blue State, and is AHEAD of Obama in the Youth Vote.

[Dark Sage]

Roy, I'm gonna ask you two questions, and I want you to answer them honestly:

Is Ryan the man that you expected, and do you think he is the best choice, given what Romney has said in the past?

In my own honest opinion, speaking as someone who followed this campaign, my answer for both questions is "no". While I admit that Ryan is much better than Palin could ever hope to be, Romney expressed his desire for a "safe pick", which Ryan is clearly not.

Edit: Btw, attempts to win the youth vote using a VP tend to end in disaster. I believe that was one of the biggest reasons for G.H.W. Bush choosing Dan Quayle. Not that Ryan is anything like Quayle, I'll admit...

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, I'm gonna ask you two questions, and I want you to answer them honestly:

Is Ryan the man that you expected, and do you think he is the best choice, given what Romney has said in the past?

In my own honest opinion, speaking as someone who followed this campaign, my answer for both questions is "no". While I admit that Ryan is much better than Palin could ever hope to be, Romney expressed his desire for a "safe pick", which Ryan is clearly not.

Edit: Btw, attempts to win the youth vote using a VP tend to end in disaster. I believe that was one of the biggest reasons for G.H.W. Bush choosing Dan Quayle. Not that Ryan is anything like Quayle, I'll admit...

Is it a safe pick? No, he could have gone boring no doubt. But remember that Romney has other qualifications than just being a safe pick. Is he the best choice? Yes I believe so, and he was on my own short list with Rubio and Jindal. It does help that in real life I share a name with him, but I have been excited about Paul Ryan for several years now.

[Dark Sage]

I saw Ryan's interview on 60 Minutes last night... I have to admit you're right, Roy... He might be the best choice for Romney's VP pick... In fact, I'm starting to think that Ryan may be far more qualified to be President than Romney is.

Anyway... My respect for the GOP just edged up a little when I heard that Palin had NOT been invited to speak at the Convention. Seems the ones in charge are a little smarter than I give them credit for. I'm still not going to watch it; but take heart, I won't be watching the Democrats' either. Both are good for nothing but cures for insomnia.

[RedStarWarrior]

Romney taints Ryan. I like Paul.

[Dark Sage]

By the way, for anyone who still wants to support Palin, here's some information about governors:

Of all of the men and women who’ve been elected governor of their state since the year 1900...Over 1200 politicians have taken that first-term oath of office.

Some died in office.

Many resigned to accept other positions in government, including Spiro Agnew who was “tapped” by Nixon after being the Governor of Maryland for about five minutes. (We all know what happened to him.)

On a handful of occasions, a first-termer was arrested or impeached.

One was incapacitated by a nervous breakdown and one left just as impeachment came knocking on his door.

So—how many out of over 1200 just up and resigned before the end of their term?

Three: Jim McGreevy, Eliot Spitzer and Sarah Palin.

Two of those quit due to scandal.

That leaves Palin to be the only one out of 1200 that quit for no legitimate reason.

Unless you count greed as a "legitimate reason".

[Roy Karrde]

That leaves Palin to be the only one out of 1200 that quit for no legitimate reason.

Unless you count greed as a "legitimate reason".

Except she had a legitimate reason, lefty idiots were engaging in lawsuit after lawsuit against her when she got back, many of them absolutely frivolous. This drained both her time, and money as she was forced to defend herself against each lawsuit.

Now let me be fair, I liked Sarah Palin, I met her twice, she did a wonderful thing for my Grandma, and she is a very sweet person in real life....

But for the first time since 1996, I can sit back in a election and not have to worry about what a candidate will say during a interview/speech.

Edit: As I said before on Fast and Furious, this thing is heading to court to get the documents.

CBS News has learned that the House Oversight Committee expects to file a civil contempt suit against Attorney General Eric Holder Monday. The lawsuit is to try to force Holder to release documents from the Fast and Furious gunwalking operation.

The Republican-led House of Representative voted to hold Holder in contempt on June 28 for failing to turn over thousands of pages of subpoenaed documents. The Justice Department has said it is withholding documents under White House executive privilege.

Seventeen Democrats voted with 238 Republicans in the 255-67 vote for contempt. Democratic leaders called the contempt vote a “political witch hunt.”

In a past subpoena dispute between Congress and the executive branch, a federal judge ordered the executive branch to turn over the disputed documents. However, before the executive branch could pursue an appeal, the two sides reached a compromise and certain documents were turned over.

Obama is going to have to answer in court how executive privilege can be used to protect Holder from possible criminal prosecution of perjury and obstruction of justice.

[Dark Sage]

Except she had a legitimate reason, lefty idiots were engaging in lawsuit after lawsuit against her when she got back, many of them absolutely frivolous. This drained both her time, and money as she was forced to defend herself against each lawsuit.

Then there was no way in Hell that she was ever qualified to be President. Your attempts to defend her only make me laugh.

Obama is going to have to answer in court how executive privilege can be used to protect Holder from possible criminal prosecution of perjury and obstruction of justice.

I think it's safe to put my money with Obama here. Assuming it even gets to court.

[Roy Karrde]

Then there was no way in Hell that she was ever qualified to be President. Your attempts to defend her only make me laugh.

The President has the Justice Department to defend himself/herself from lawsuits, Sarah Palin on the other hand was paying it out of pocket and having to deal with it on state time.

I think it's safe to put my money with Obama here. Assuming it even gets to court.

Then you will probably lose your money, the court has long established that the President cannot use executive privilege when it comes to criminal action.

[Dark Sage]

Roy, look...

The GOP's first mistake in this whole mess was thinking that holding Holder in contempt would accomplish anything.

This civil suit is the second mistake. It will be nothing but a waste of time and money that they will send taxpayers the bill for.

But I've come to expect that from them. The Starr Report sticks out in my mind when people bring up costly witch hunts that they started.

Edit: By the way, Roy, my brother was an intern for Al Gore's staff while attending G.W. University. I met the guy frequently, and I think he was a very nice guy too, far removed from the stiff, boring personality that people often portray him as being.

Oh, and another thing. If the GOP is so damn certain that they'll control the House, Senate, and White House after the elections, why bother with this civil case? By the time a court agrees to hear it, it won't even be necessary, by your reasoning.

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, look...

The GOP's first mistake in this whole mess was thinking that holding Holder in contempt would accomplish anything.

This civil suit is the second mistake. It will be nothing but a waste of time and money that they will send taxpayers the bill for.

But I've come to expect that from them. The Starr Report sticks out in my mind when people bring up costly witch hunts that they started.

Except unlike Bill Clinton lying to the nation and tampering with witnesses, this involves actual deaths, people died here, and people will continue to die from the ineptitude of this program. Eric Holder lied about it, he hid information, and he did his damnedest to prevent justice from happening. This is not a witch hunt, this is justice. By the way the Democratic party should be well versed in witch hunts, they conducted one in 2006 with Scooter Libby.

Oh, and another thing. If the GOP is so damn certain that they'll control the House, Senate, and White House after the elections, why bother with this civil case? By the time a court agrees to hear it, it won't even be necessary, by your reasoning.

Same reason that the Democrats issued a Civil Case against the Bush Administration after they issued executive privileged, to get to the bottom of the problem.

[Dark Sage]

Yeah, well... My dad says that, in his honest opinion (which I respect), this is political manuvering. And that the concern for the victims on the GOP's part is minimal.

[Roy Karrde]

Yeah, well... My dad says that, in his honest opinion (which I respect), this is political manuvering. And that the concern for the victims on the GOP's part is minimal.

Yes because of course the GOP has a very long history of not being concerned about our men and women in uniform... Yeah....

[Dark Sage]

Yes because of course the GOP has a very long history of not being concerned about our men and women in uniform... Yeah....

Is that so?

The GOP is the party that Bush belonged to... You know, the President who got us involved in two costly, unnecessary wars that Mr. Obama has spent his whole first term trying to get us out of, that lasted longer than Vietnam.

While Mr. Obama actually got results, and took out Osama bin Laden.

Right... The GOP sure sounds like they care a LOT about our troops after all that...

[Roy Karrde]

Is that so?

The GOP is the party that Bush belonged to... You know, the President who got us involved in two costly, unnecessary wars that Mr. Obama has spent his whole first term trying to get us out of, that lasted longer than Vietnam.

While Mr. Obama actually got results, and took out Osama bin Laden.

Right... The GOP sure sounds like they care a LOT about our troops after all that...

Two Unnecessary Wars? Am I to assume that you believe that Afghanistan was a Unnecessary War?

By the way last time I checked it wasn't the GOP but Senate Leader Harry Reid that said the Iraq war was lost... It was also Joe Biden and Obama who said that the surge would not work there.

But then we can go to any anti war protest and see how much the left cares for the troops. That is if we can get past the spitting and shoving the troops.

[Dark Sage]

Oh, Roy? Since you respect Gallup Polls so much, take a look at this one:

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...1#.UCkv2chSTDU

Ryan doesn't seem all-too popular if you ask me.

[Roy Karrde]

Oh, Roy? Since you respect Gallup Polls so much, take a look at this one:

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...1#.UCkv2chSTDU

Ryan doesn't seem all-too popular if you ask me.

He also is a fairly unknown figure as the poll points out, however his energy and enthusiasm is driving people to see him, as 10,000+ people who packed the event in High Point North Carolina yesterday can attest.

But since you seem so eager to put up some polls try this one.

In weekend interviews 38 percent responded favorably to Ryan joining the Republican ticket, up from 23 percent in pre-selection interviews last week. Positive views rose among independents as well as among Republicans, and among women. And Ryan was notably well-received among senior citizens – a group of interest given his plan to reshape Medicare.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...tive-movement/

Ryan is seeing a rise in women, independents, and seniors.

Also I would suggest looking at this poll.

“Thought given to the election” is one of Gallup’s “likely voter” questions, and is a predictor of voter turnout. The current data, from a July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll, would suggest that voter turnout among the voting-age population will be lower in 2012 than it was in 2004 (55%) and 2008 (57%), but higher than in the 2000 election (51%).

The percentage of Americans thinking about the election typically increases over the course of the campaign; thus, more Americans should be paying attention to the election during the party conventions, debates, and final push to Election Day.

....

The “closely follow” question also shows a party difference, with 87% of Republicans and 79% of Democrats saying they are following news of the election closely. The party gap is even greater among those paying very close attention — 45% vs. 33%, respectively.

If Democrats continue to lose to Republicans on enthusiasm then we may see a turnout of Republicans that surpasses Democrats, something NO poll I have seen has predicted and something that should theoretically propel Mitt Romney to a easy if not a landslide win.

[Dark Sage]

You keep counting on low Democrat voter turnout.

It's a gamble that every serious GOP voter my father and I are debating with seems to be hedging his bets on. It seems that all of you are counting on that one factor.

What happens if you're wrong?

[Roy Karrde]

You keep counting on low Democrat voter turnout.

It's a gamble that every serious GOP voter my father and I are debating with seems to be hedging his bets on. It seems that all of you are counting on that one factor.

What happens if you're wrong?

It all depends on the independents then, but a high Democrat voter turn out could easily win Obama the seat as it did in 2008, but currently polls and information like the low turn out at Obama functions ( Obama held a $50 dollar a plate fundraiser yesterday and it was only half full! ), and Obama's fundraising problems point to a split turn out at best like in 2010, or maybe even a slightly up Republican turn out, in which case Mitt Romney would seem to easily win. Even in a slight up Democratic turn out, Mitt Romney would have a chance of winning as some polls put him significantly ahead of Obama in terms of independents.

[Asilynne]

It all depends on the independents then, but a high Democrat voter turn out could easily win Obama the seat as it did in 2008, but currently polls and information like the low turn out at Obama functions ( Obama held a $50 dollar a plate fundraiser yesterday and it was only half full! ), and Obama's fundraising problems point to a split turn out at best like in 2010, or maybe even a slightly up Republican turn out, in which case Mitt Romney would seem to easily win. Even in a slight up Democratic turn out, Mitt Romney would have a chance of winning as some polls put him significantly ahead of Obama in terms of independents.

I know its just my own experience and I obviously can't say how it is at the other rallies, but Romney doesn't seem to have this problem. When Romney and Ryan were in Manassas on Saturday, the gates opened at 2:45, I got there at 3:30 and the line wove all around 3-4 square blocks, even after I got in line people were still lining up behind me and I was so far away from the stadium I couldn't even hear the music for a whole hour. People filed in through security until it was full and the rest of us that couldn't get in didn't go home, we gathered in the parking lot where they had a screen set up and had our own block party. The stadium they were in was FULL and there were either the same # or more people outside of it. Afterwards people still didn't leave, we waited for the tour bus to go by and waved and cheered some more lol

And this isn't a state or even an area that's typically conservative. Northern VA is notoriously liberal. VA in its entirety is a swing state I believe. I don't spend my time looking at polls and such like you guys but from what I've seen, seeing as how no one cares about my town, people sure were flocking from all over the DC metro area to attend this rally. That was pretty inspiring in itself.

[Dark Sage]

I'd like to point something out, if I may.

At a campaign event in May, Romney appeared to endorse a supporter's idea for a constitutional amendment stating that a “president has to spend at least three years working in business before he can become president of the United States."

Romney continued, "You see, then he or she would understand that the policies they're putting into place have to encourage small business, make it easier for business to grow.”

The problem is, Ryan does not meet this criteria. As the Associated Press notes:

At 42, Ryan has spent almost half of his life in the Washington fold, the last 14 representing a southern Wisconsin district that runs from the shores of Lake Michigan through farm country south of Madison.

Now, before you say that Obama doesn't meet this criteria either, don't. He most certainly does. Here's his full resume, although I doubt it will satisfy the Birthers; as you can see, he's worked for no less than eleven for-profit businesses:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...m-business-am/

Of course, working in an ice cream store isn't exactly the type of job that Romney is used to, but it shows that Obama had to work his way up from the ground, unlike Romney, who started at the top.

[Roy Karrde]

Except Paul Ryan did the exact same thing, working service jobs such as serving at Tortillia Coast.

http://www.gq.com/news-politics/blog...e-beltway.html

[Dark Sage]

Yes, Roy, but if you read my link again, you'll see that Obama is well qualified to meet the conditions of that hypothetical constitutional amendment that Romney approves of. He had more than three years of careers in actual business.

Ryan did not. Aside from jobs like working at the Tortillia Coast (which I'm not saying is bad, as I've eaten there, and it's a great place) he's been a politician all his life.

[Roy Karrde]

Yes, Roy, but if you read my link again, you'll see that Obama is well qualified to meet that hypothetical constitutional amendment that Romney approves of. He had more than three years of careers in actual business.

Ryan did not. Aside from jobs like working at the Tortillia Coast (which I'm not saying is bad, as I've eaten there, and it's a great place) he's been a politician all his life.

Thing is Obama worked a assorted small jobs when he was young and in college, the same goes for Paul Ryan. If we are to talk about their post college careers then both have practically been politicians all their life.

[Dark Sage]

Roy... I am stating flat out that Ryan is NOT qualified to meet the criteria for President that Romney has publically stated should exist.

I'm right, and I think you are avoiding the question.

[Roy Karrde]

Roy... I am stating flat out that Ryan is NOT qualified to meet the criteria for President that Romney has publically stated should exist.

I'm right, and I think you are avoiding the question.

Sure, but then neither does Obama, if we are talking about post college private sector experience, and not just small summer jobs, the neither of them do, period.

[Dark Sage]

But it makes more of a difference to Romney, because HE was the one who thought it was a good idea.

See Roy, Romney, not Obama, was the one who thought that a President should be required to have three years of business experience, and now his VP pick doesn't meet that criteria!

Do you know what they call someone promotes an idea but doesn't practice it?