2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, I swore I would not proclaim Obama the winner of a debate and claim it as fact...

But come on... Calling Romney a winner in this debate is a very big stretch and a clear case of wishful thinking on the part of many Republicans.

Did Romney win the debate? No. Did Romney win the test of if he could be a Commander in Chief? Yes. The polls last night reflected it. Obama may have won the battle, but after last night is losing the war. He came off as looking incredibly petty and some of his remarks are not going to play well in Navy States. While Romney passed the one hurdle he needed to, and that is come off looking like a Commander in Chief.

Might I add that you are again quoting your favorite consevative website? They were pointing to a panel of eight people as proof, less than the number of players on a baseball team. Hardly the amount needed for an accurate poll. If I went outside right now on the streets of Brooklyn and asked eight people who won the debate, I'm sure I'd get the opposite result.

I didn't know the CBS Morning Show was a Conservative Website, because that is where the video they posted is from.

[mattbcl]

Speaking of social media, I found on my Facebook feed today a friend or two offering up opinions regarding Ann Coulter's use of the word "retard" to describe President Obama in a recent tweet. I don't know about the rest of you folks, but I would like to think I know when that word is being used as an epithet, and looking at the tweet itself (and the one that followed it), it's pretty clear that was the intention.

Republicans and Democrats alike have derided her for use of this term, but there does seem to be a curiously silent exception... Sarah Palin. When Rahm Emanuel said the same word several months ago, she went berserk on him, as she is the mother of a child with Down Syndrome and found it grossly offensive. I shared that outrage, as did many others, but when Rush Limbaugh used the very same term on his program shortly after Emanuel's disgusting outburst, her voice was as silent as it is now. It leads me to wonder if Ms. Palin only gets publicly indignant about it when a Democrat says it.

Personally, I think it deserves righteous indignation, no matter who says it. It should be more than just a convenient political soundbyte. But I'm one of those jokers who's got his head in the clouds most of the time (my height doesn't help this as all). I believe in rigorous debate, examination, cross-examination, and fact-checking, as both candidates have made their share of missteps along the way... but neither of them deserves this.

My two cents thusly deposited.

[Dark Sage]

Palin is beneath contempt. The GOP has disowned her, shown by the fact that she wasn't even invited to the RNC.

Stop giving this failure attention. Her fifteen minutes were up a long time ago.

[RedStarWarrior]

Ann Coulter is a rotten cunt, regardless.

[Dark Sage]

I thought you might want to look at this:

http://www.salon.com/2012/10/24/the_..._gop_will_pay/

It seems that optimism among the GOP has given them so much rope that they may well end up hanging themselves with it.

[mattbcl]

They could use it to bind and gag Donald Trump until after the election. His "huge announcement" today was such a nonevent that even MSNBC and Fox aren't reporting on it.

[Roy Karrde]

Yeah the Trump thing was a whole bunch of nothing, now we have Gloria Alread doing her own thing with the Sealed Court Documents. It could be ironic, Obama gained his U.S. Senate Seat largely by the sleazy move of unsealing court documents, now as he possibly loses the Presidency, Gloria Alread is trying to do the same thing for him.

Speaking of losing the Presidency, it seems that the downward spiral is really starting to begin. Fingers are being pointed at Bill Clinton for a bad strategy, word leaks out that Obama is abandoning states, and then they say he isn't. I do wonder if in a few days his staff is going to look at eachother and say "Should we tell the President that he is going to lose?"

Can things change in the next two weeks? Sure, but right now it seems like President Obama is in the final stages of losing.

[Plantae]

Get real, Roy. It's a statistical dead heat at best. Romney may have a little momentum, but he's not rolling downhill anymore.

It's true that certain states are in play for Romney that weren't before, but based on the polling in swing states, Obama still has numerous paths to electoral victory. Especially since no recent polls take into account the spoiling effect of the third party candidates; it would be interesting to see who Gary Johnson pulls more votes from, but my suspicion is that it's more likely to be from Romney than from Obama. Though this may be very difficult to judge. I also doubt that Romney's done enough to dig himself out of his untenable pitch to women and Latinos.

Obama just had a good, if not spectacular performance at the debate. Romney may have appeared to be an adequate commander-in-chief, but he lacked Obama's real-world experience, and it showed in a blustering approach to certain issues. In summary, I'd be surprised if either of them made any real gains out of their performances.

You're right that this next two weeks holds considerable potential. But at this point, it seems to be less about what the candidates say and more about what swings states they say it in.

And Plantae...let's say you hypothetically started a new Werewolf game....I'd so play

I know, I know. But I've tried restarting it several times, and it seems like there isn't enough interest left around here.

[Roy Karrde]

Get real, Roy. It's a statistical dead heat at best. Romney may have a little momentum, but he's not rolling downhill anymore.

When you are slightly in the lead as Romney is now, all you need is a little momentum.

It's true that certain states are in play for Romney that weren't before, but based on the polling in swing states, Obama still has numerous paths to electoral victory.

Paths that are shrinking as swing states are slipping through his grasp.

Especially since no recent polls take into account the spoiling effect of the third party candidates; it would be interesting to see who Gary Johnson pulls more votes from, but my suspicion is that it's more likely to be from Romney than from Obama.

You forget that he isn't the only third party candidate, there is also those like Jill Stein who will pull votes from Obama

Though this may be very difficult to judge. I also doubt that Romney's done enough to dig himself out of his untenable pitch to women and Latinos.

Don't look now Romney is erasing the gender gap.

http://news.yahoo.com/ap-poll-romney...-election.html

Obama just had a good, if not spectacular performance at the debate. Romney may have appeared to be an adequate commander-in-chief, but he lacked Obama's real-world experience, and it showed in a blustering approach to certain issues. In summary, I'd be surprised if either of them made any real gains out of their performances.

Last time I checked this isn't 2004, and no one is going to be elected over their foreign policy views. All Romney had to do is make people be assured he would be a good Commander in Chief, he did that.

[Leon-IH]

Don't look now Romney is erasing the gender gap.

http://news.yahoo.com/ap-poll-romney...-election.html

Curiously he is also losing the advantage he held with men previously. Romney needs to time his flip flopping so he's supporting the popular side of all the issues to win the election haha.

Obama is doing better in the polls now than a week ago and there's no real opportunity for Romney to make another big leap (and he's got idiots like Mourdock making stupid statements).

Unrelated: Colin Powell has endorsed Obama for a second term.

For those interested in the polls, http://www.electoral-vote.com/ has a pretty good system of covering the latest polling data.

[Dark Sage]

I have to agree with Plantae. The "downward spiral" that the GOP hoped Mr. Obama would experience is wishful thinking at best.

Furthermore, after what Richard Mourdock said, the GOP are clearly not gaining more support among women, and are going to need a miracle to gain control of the Senate.

[Roy Karrde]

I have to agree with Plantae. The "downward spiral" that the GOP hoped Mr. Obama would experience is wishful thinking at best.

And yet you cannot deny that the finger pointing has begun, or that they are threatening to pull out of swing states.

Furthermore, after what Richard Mourdock said, the GOP are clearly not gaining more support among women, and are going to need a miracle to gain control of the Senate.

So you are just going to ignore the poll on Romney erasing the Gender Gap?

[Dark Sage]

No, Roy, I'm going to ignore YOU from this point.

The GOP keeps saying horrible things, and you won't even address them. You focus on the good things they do, but are silent on the atrocious things that they are saying.

When Mr. Obama wins on the 6th, maybe you'll finally accept defeat. I doubt that folks like you will believe that Romney has any chance to lose before he actually does.

[Roy Karrde]

No, Roy, I'm going to ignore YOU from this point.

The GOP keeps saying horrible things, and you won't even address them. You focus on the good things they do, but are silent on the atrocious things that they are saying.

I believe I said what Akin was either ignorant or stupid.

When it comes to the other, I do not hold him to the same thing, nor do I believe what he said was that horrible.

When Mr. Obama wins on the 6th, maybe you'll finally accept defeat. I doubt that folks like you will believe that Romney has any chance to lose before he actually does.

So you believe Obama will win now.

[Dark Sage]

So you believe Obama will win now.

Yes.

Just like I did four years ago, even though I was mocked by the same people who are telling me to "keep drinking the kool aid" now. They disgust me.

These idiots don't even know that the incident that inspired the "kool aid analogy" that they're so fond of using is innacurate. It was not a case of mass suicide by a blindly loyal cult, it was a mass murder committed by the cult's leader. Those cultists were forced to drink the cyanide at gunpoint, and were shot if they refused.

[Oslo]

Don't look now Romney is erasing the gender gap.

http://news.yahoo.com/ap-poll-romney...-election.html

@ how you say Obama "is in the final stages of losing" and then, less than twelve hours later, cite an article that describes the race as "a virtual dead heat."

[Magmar]

Bipartisan issues aside... let's talk about that shady deal with Floridians receiving memos that they are ineligible to vote. What kind of bullcrap motivated that?? Was it race-targeted or general random selection? I hope they catch whoever did it, convict him or her of a felony, and then they lose their voting privileges

Also, a serious issue is the fact that Hurricane Sandy could be striking up here pretty close to election time. November as voting season is probably one of the best bets, since the weather is usually calmest in November, at least looking at things from a national perspective. If we lose power from this storm and can't have electricity during balloting... I wonder what will happen! Granted there's no way in hell that Rhode Island is voting republican... I mean, neither candidate has even bothered to visit or mention the state.

[Dark Sage]

The GOP is trying every dirty trick, Magmar.

In Pennsyvania, they're trying their hardest to convince minorities that ID cards are still required to vote in order to convince them to stay home, trying their hardest to keep people in the dark about the court's ruling.

[Magmar]

See, I read earlier that more Republicans came forward about receiving those notices than Democrats. I don't know if it's necessarily a GOP thing... sounds like something an extremist would do, and both parties have their share of crazies.

I still maintain that I support the candidate that promises me civil rights.

[Dark Sage]

Take a look at this, Magmar.

Seeing as the GOP kept using voter fraud as their excuse for keeping the voter ID laws, this is gonna come as a shock:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_1990104.html

[Roy Karrde]

@ how you say Obama "is in the final stages of losing" and then, less than twelve hours later, cite an article that describes the race as "a virtual dead heat."

Because National Polls, many of which have Romney ahead =/= State Polls? Like I said, a winning campaign does not point fingers, does not pull out of swing states, and surely does not go extremely negative.

Also @Magmar and Dark Sage

Here is more info on the Florida story.

http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Flo...z/-/index.html

[Dark Sage]

I condemn this action that was done in Florida, regardless of who is behind it.

Along with every case of voter fraud in the article that I posted a link to.

My question to Roy is...

Do you?

[Roy Karrde]

I condemn this action that was done in Florida, regardless of who is behind it.

Along with every case of voter fraud in the article that I posted a link to.

My question to Roy is...

Do you?

Of course, when did this become a silly pissing match of "Do you condemn this"?

[Dark Sage]

Because, if you want to point to instances of Democrats trying to rig votes, you have to accept the fact that Republicans are doing it too, and admit that every case of it, no matter which side does it, is wrong.

[Magmar]

Thanks guys for the links. It's clear that whoever is behind the Florida letters is of unconfirmed political affiliation.

[Dark Sage]

I just heard something disturbing over the wire.

It turns out that one of the donors at Romney's infamous meeting where he made the "47% remark" did jail time for....

...wait for it...

Tax evasion.

I don't know whether to laugh or throw up.

[Roy Karrde]

Well it seems that Romney is largely hitting 50% in the national polls and coming pretty close in the local polls. Typical wisdom is that the late deciders will break toward the challenger, if so we could be seeing solidification around a Romney majority number now that the debates are over.

[Heald]

I'm still incredibly skeptical about any chance of a Romney win, mainly because a) the undecideds in the places that matter are leaning to Obama according to reports I heard earlier today and b) betting shops are still taking giving Romney far longer odds than a close election suggests.

[Dark Sage]

It also seems that his earlier predictions about voter enthusiasm were wrong. Voter turnout is higher than average for early voting, and Obama seems to be ahead in most exit polls in the places where it's allowed.

[Roy Karrde]

I'm still incredibly skeptical about any chance of a Romney win, mainly because a) the undecideds in the places that matter are leaning to Obama according to reports I heard earlier today and b) betting shops are still taking giving Romney far longer odds than a close election suggests.

Got anything to back up the info on the undecideds?

It also seems that his earlier predictions about voter enthusiasm were wrong. Voter turnout is higher than average for early voting, and Obama seems to be ahead in most exit polls in the places where it's allowed.

Proof?

[Dark Sage]

Here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-early-voting/

From now on, I'm more than prepared for when he wants proof. I'm never going to say something I can't back up.

[Roy Karrde]

Here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-early-voting/

From now on, I'm more than prepared for when he wants proof. I'm never going to say something I can't back up.

And yet that does not seem to have a clear indication that Democrats are more enthusiastic, They are voting earlier? Great, but as the article notes those could very well already be the diehards. The enthusiasm gap is going to come into play with the less than diehard voters.

[Dark Sage]

Roy, you know, deep down, I admire your tenacity...

You were like this four years ago at this time, oh yeah, I remember that... Even on Election Day, it took you a while to accept that McCain had lost Pennsyvania...

Some may call it stubborn, some may call it foolish, but...

If you're so willing to stand up for what you believe in that you will throw out every last possibilty in an attempt counter everything we throw at you that shows that Romney is losing, then I can't help but admire it...

At least you didn't mention that ridiculous Gallup Poll that claimed that Romney had shot up to a seven-point lead overnight. Only the most ignorant GOPs actually believed it.

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, you know, deep down, I admire your tenacity...

You were like this four years ago at this time, oh yeah, I remember that... Even on Election Day, it took you a while to accept that McCain had lost Pennsyvania...

Some may call it stubborn, some may call it foolish, but...

If you're so willing to stand up for what you believe in that you will throw out every last possibilty in an attempt counter everything we throw at you that shows that Romney is losing, then I can't help but admire it...

At least you didn't mention that ridiculous Gallup Poll that claimed that Romney had shot up to a seven-point lead overnight. Only the most ignorant GOPs actually believed it.

I do note that you have no longer quote polls, just a few weeks ago when Obama was in the lead you would post them all the time. Now? Nothing.... Yet you claim Romney is losing.

[Dark Sage]

Romney is ahead by three points in the Rasmussen Reports.

By GOP logic, considering the reaction I got when Obama had the same lead, that is completely insignificant.

Remember?

Here's something else to consider:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...a-3-point-lead

According to this, all polls show Obama with a lead in Ohio.

And no Republican in history has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio, as I'm sure you already know.

[Roy Karrde]

Romney is ahead by three points in the Rasmussen Reports.

By GOP logic, considering the reaction I got when Obama had the same lead, that is completely insignificant.

Remember?

Kind of different when the election is less than 12 days away.

Here's something else to consider:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...a-3-point-lead

According to this, all polls show Obama with a lead in Ohio.

And no Republican in history has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio, as I'm sure you already know.

Yeah he is up 5 in the Time Poll in Ohio, The Time Poll in Ohio also has a D+9 Advantage and lower turn out for Republicans than in 2008 which is why neither the campaigns or even MSNBC are taking it as fact.

[kurai]

ON THE FIRST DAY OF ELECTIONMAS,

FiveThirtyEight - Now-cast



RealClearPolitics - General Election: Romney vs. Obama



Intrade - 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)



Votamatic



electoral-vote.com



RealClearPolitics Electoral College Map



Talking Points Memo - Electoral Scoreboard



Huffington Post - Electoral Map



Karl Rove



UnSkewed Polls - Unskewed Projection

[Dark Sage]

Thank you Kurai.

I think your research has shown that the polls are pretty varied and evenly split.

Although, even if I supported Romney, I'd have my doubts about the accuracy of that last one. It looks suspiciously like a lot of the ones I saw four years ago that turned out to be wishful thinking by McCain supporters.

On another note, in a Missouri Senate poll I saw, Akin is behind McCaskill by seven points, and is sinking like a brick.

[Heald]

Got anything to back up the info on the undecideds?

It was on BBC's radio news analysis program when I was driving home tonight, which is generally a reputable source. We're still 11 days away so anything can change, but it'd be blindly optimistic at this stage to say Romney has the upper hand.

[Dark Sage]

You're lucky, Heald. The closest thing we have here to a "reputable source" on public radio is WCBS Newsradio (and thank goodness the season is over for the Yankees, because their games always take priority on that station). On other stations, we have to listen to jerks like Rush Limbaugh.