2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Leon-IH]

On another note, in a Missouri Senate poll I saw, Akin is behind McCaskill by seven points, and is sinking like a brick.

Regardless of your political opinions, you've got to respect the brains of whoever came up with McCaskill's strategy -- in a tough swing state -- take advantage of the republicans knowing it's a tough swing state and run ads painting Akin as too conservative during the Republican primaries (basically ensuring the least appealing Republican to moderates wins the nomination), then let him fuck up and scare away the female vote.

It's amazing how conservative guys like Akin are, I'm pretty sure Nixon would look centrist next to some of these tea party crazies.


Unrelated: Ohio polls are incredibly stable next to some other states, it's almost like the overloading of political ads in Ohio has caused people to start blocking all the media out and just voting as they would before.

[Dark Sage]

The thing is, it's overconfidence on the GOP's part that idiots like Mourdock think they can say the things they are saying and get away with it.

They can't. People aren't going to stand for it. The GOP have too much slack, and as I said before, give a man too much rope, he'll hang himself with it.

The worst part is, the view held by Mourdock and Akin is far from unique among GOP Senate candidates. Take a look.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2018934.html

And to think, the GOP say that the War on Women doesn't exist? I beg to differ!

[Roy Karrde]

The thing is, it's overconfidence on the GOP's part that idiots like Mourdock think they can say the things they are saying and get away with it.

They can't. People aren't going to stand for it. The GOP have too much slack, and as I said before, give a man too much rope, he'll hang himself with it.

The worst part is, the view held by Mourdock and Akin is far from unique among GOP Senate candidates. Take a look.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2018934.html

And to think, the GOP say that the War on Women doesn't exist? I beg to differ!

And what exactly was wrong with what Mourdock said?

[Dark Sage]

He said that a rape victim should not be allowed to terminate her pregancy because it was "something God intended".

You don't see anything wrong with that?

A woman should have to bear a rapist's child? Spend nine months with morning sickness, a sore back, and the other illnesses associated with pregancy carrying a child that she doesn't want, which reminds her every waking moment of the horrid attack that took her innocence?

This happens to children sometimes, by the way. You want a twelve-year-old girl to endure this?

What happens when the child is born? She'll hate it, that's what will happen. She'll never take custody of it. If the kid is lucky, he'll be placed in foster care. Less fortunate ones will be abandoned and left to die.

And if the child grows to adulthood and tries to find his mother, what if he succeeds? His mother may well be sickened by the sight of him and order him to leave and never come back. I pity someone whom that happens to.

"Something God intended." Right. More like the work of the Devil.

[Roy Karrde]

He said that a rape victim should not be allowed to terminate her pregancy because it was "something God intended".

You don't see anything wrong with that?

A woman should have to bear a rapist's child? Spend nine months with morning sickness, a sore back, and the other illnesses associated with pregancy carrying a child that she doesn't want, which reminds her every waking moment of the horrid attack took her innocence?

This happens to children sometimes, by the way. You want a twelve-year-old girl to endure this?

What happens when the child is born? She'll hate it, that's what will happen. She'll never take custody of it. If the kid is lucky, he'll be placed in foster care. Less fortunate ones will be abandoned and left to die.

And if the child grows to adulthood and tries to find his mother, what if he succeeds? His mother may well be sickened by the sight of him and order him to leave and never come back. I pity someone whom that happens to.

"Something God intended." Right. More like the work of the Devil.

He said that he believes that life is intended by God, now we can go down and consider the act, but at the end of the day he believes that each life is sacred and intended by God. That is a personal religious belief, and one many people hold, so again I cannot see the problem with that. Especially since it is no where near Akin's view.

I mean at the end of the day the question is: Is all life sacred or not? If so there should be nothing wrong with his belief.

[Dark Sage]

Is the rape victim's life sacred? Because this crime is one that can mentally scar a woman for her entire life, and a pregancy only makes it far worse.

Some would say that rape is an even worse crime against a woman than murder, for many reasons. If you ever spoke to a victim of this horrid act, you'd understand.

And your attempts to defend him only sicken me.

[Roy Karrde]

Is the rape victim's life sacred? Because this crime is one that can mentally scar a woman for her entire life, and a pregancy only makes it far worse.

Some would say that rape is an even worse crime against a woman than murder, for many reasons. If you ever spoke to a victim of this horrid act, you'd understand.

One could say that we do not know why God does some things, why he tests us, etc etc. But you did not answer my question, is all life sacred or not? Does God have plans for everyone or not?

And your attempts to defend him only sicken me.

Don't care?

[Dark Sage]

Roy, let's forget about politics for a minute...

I consider myself Roman Catholic, and I do believe in God.

I'll admit that I'm not overly fond of Cardinal Dolan, nor do I like Benedict much, with all that's been going on at the Vatican lately... But I am friends with a lot of good priests that I respect, such as the one at the small church at my home town in Connecticut.

And while they do tend to be pro-life in general, they would never approve of this zero tolerance policy towards abortion that would demand that a rape victim suffer.

Do you know why? Because they realize that the victim of a crime should not be punished, letalone in a manner worse than the criminal should.

These priests I speak of are truly worthy of their vestments, unlike a lot of the ones you hear about on the news.

I don't know what faith you belong to, nor am I rude enough to ask. But if there is a clergyman that you truly respect, why don't you talk to him sometimes. They tend to be good listeners, and give good advice. Talking to these people can give you a whole different view on just what "God's will" is. They are the experts on the subject. Politicians aren't.

Edit: To answer your question, yes.

But... A fetus has no heartbeat or brain activity until many months into the pregnancy, so I do not believe it is truly a sentient human until then, and therefore, cannot be considered "life" in the same way that a newborn infant is.

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, let's forget about politics for a minute...

I consider myself Roman Catholic, and I do believe in God.

I'll admit that I'm not overly fond of Cardinal Dolan, nor do I like Benedict much, with all that's been going on at the Vatican lately... But I am friends with a lot of good priests that I respect, such as the one at the small church at my home town in Connecticut.

And while they do tend to be pro-life in general, they would never approve of this zero tolerance policy towards abortion that would demand that a rape victim suffer.

Do you know why? Because they realize that the victim of a crime should not be punished, letalone in a manner worse than the criminal should.

These priests I speak of are truly worthy of their vestments, unlike a lot of the ones you hear about on the news.

I don't know what faith you belong to, nor am I rude enough to ask. But if there is a clergyman that you truly respect, why don't you talk to him sometimes. They tend to be good listeners, and give good advice. Talking to these people can give you a whole different view on just what "God's will" is. They are the experts on the subject. Politicians aren't.

Well the question is who truly is suffering? If a person believes that life begins at conception, if that truly is life, then isn't that life, the life of the baby suffering a far worse fate than the rape victim? She has to carry the child for 9 months, that is horrible I know, but the punishment is a far less fate than death! Not to mention you are in the end punishing a innocent life with the ultimate penalty, you cannot kill the rapist, so you kill the rapist child, what is in essence a innocent life given by God. That is of course if you believe that all life is sacred and that it is given by God, which is what Mourdock believes.

[Dark Sage]

I believe that Mourdock is a deluded bastard.

A child conceived in rape is not given by God. Its a vile thing given by an evil man.

[Roy Karrde]

I believe that Mourdock is a deluded bastard.

A child conceived in rape is not given by God.

That is your own personal opinion, but you cannot really fault him for having his own. And I am sure many mothers and children who carried their baby to term would disagree with you.

[Dark Sage]

Roy, I'm going to ask you a question, and I want an answer.

If this happened to your twelve-year-old daughter, what would your reaction be?

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, I'm going to ask you a question, and I want an answer.

If this happened to your twelve-year-old daughter, what would your reaction be?

First I would want to kill the bastard that did it. Then I would sit down with her and have a long discussion with her and her mother about it. Mind you I never said that this was MY view. Merely that I can see his view, and respect it, especially with out calling him a deluded bastard.

[Dark Sage]

He certainly has the right to his opinion, Roy. But I don't respect it, and I'm not alone.

It's certainly not going to help him win the election. It has a good chance of making him lose, in fact, given the uproar it's caused.

You can say it's no big deal, but your opinion is not widely shared.

[Roy Karrde]

He certainly has the right to his opinion, Roy. But I don't respect it, and I'm not alone.

It's certainly not going to help him win the election. It has a good chance of making him lose, in fact, given the uproar it's caused.

You can say it's no big deal, but your opinion is not widely shared.

So you would rather have had him lie about his views? To conceal them and go with the most poll tested view? That is one of the biggest complaints about politicians. The minute that some one admits to holding a view that may not be popular or widely shared. He or she is demonized for it, instead of applauded for atleast being truthful and upfront to those voting for him or her.

[Dark Sage]

No, I'd rather have had the GOP been smart and not have associated with people like this in the first place, letalone have nominated them for the Senate.

I swear. With the state the GOP is in these days, Abraham Lincoln must be rolling over in his grave.

[Roy Karrde]

No, I'd rather have had the GOP been smart and not have associated with people like this in the first place, letalone have nominated them for the Senate.

So you are saying the party should penalize him for his religious beliefs?

I swear. With the state the GOP is in these days, Abraham Lincoln must be rolling over in his grave.

Same could be said about the Democratic Party and JFK.

[Dark Sage]

Same could be said about the Democratic Party and JFK.

I won't deny that.

But I still prefer their policies to those of the GOP.

[Roy Karrde]

Since it seems we have nothing more on the subject there is some breaking news from Fox News.

Fox News has learned from sources who were on the ground in Benghazi that three urgent requests from the CIA annex for military back-up during the attack on the U.S. Consulate and subsequent attack nearly seven hours later were denied by officials in the CIA chain of command — who also told the CIA operators to “stand down” rather than help the ambassador’s team when shots were heard at approximately 9:40 p.m. in Benghazi on Sept. 11.

Former Navy SEALs Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty were part of a small team who were at the CIA annex about a mile from the U.S. Consulate where Ambassador Chris Stevens and his team came under attack. When they heard the shots fired, they radioed to inform their higher-ups to tell them what they were hearing. They were told to “stand down,” according to sources familiar with the exchange. An hour later, they called again to headquarters and were again told to “stand down.”

Woods, Doherty and at least two others ignored those orders and made their way to the Consulate which at that point was on fire. Shots were exchanged. The quick reaction force from the CIA annex evacuated those who remained at the Consulate and Sean Smith, who had been killed in the initial attack. They could not find the ambassador and returned to the CIA annex at about midnight.

At that point, they called again for military support and help because they were taking fire at the CIA safe house, or annex. The request was denied. There were no communications problems at the annex, according those present at the compound. The team was in constant radio contact with their headquarters. In fact, at least one member of the team was on the roof of the annex manning a heavy machine gun when mortars were fired at the CIA compound. The security officer had a laser on the target that was firing and repeatedly requested back-up support from a Specter gunship, which is commonly used by U.S. Special Operations forces to provide support to Special Operations teams on the ground involved in intense firefights. The fighting at the CIA annex went on for more than four hours — enough time for any planes based in Sigonella Air base, just 480 miles away, to arrive. Fox News has also learned that two separate Tier One Special operations forces were told to wait, among them Delta Force operators.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...k-sources-say/

Three request for help, lasers designated on the mortar team, ample timing for them to get help in. And they did nothing. Dark Sage you are right this isn't White Water, this is worse than Watergate.

[Dark Sage]

May I suggest a different point of view, considering your source?

http://mediamatters.org/research/201...ndoning/190948

It seems that this is far from the first very damning claim that Fox News has made about the attacks.

[Roy Karrde]

May I suggest a different point of view, considering your source?

http://mediamatters.org/research/201...ndoning/190948

It seems that this is far from the first very damning claim that Fox News has made about the attacks.

So far I see nothing in that article that contradicts what Fox News was saying. And really, attacking Fox News through Media Matters? And you claim I post biased sources....

[Dark Sage]

And I see no-one else reporting this story. No-one on the cable news networks, and no-one else on the internet. And I've Googled "Benghazi" three times.

I'm afraid I can't take the word of a network who has admitted in court that it is willing to lie and call it news.

[Roy Karrde]

And I see no-one else reporting this story. No-one on the cable news networks, and no-one else on the internet. And I've Googled "Benghazi" three times.

I'm afraid I can't take the word of a network who has admitted in court that it is willing to lie and call it news.

The article just came out two hours ago, and is considered a exclusive. By the way instead of engaging in basically a ad hominem attack, why don't you actually look at the information.

[Dark Sage]

I just heard Mr. Romney's speech, and I think it shows exactly why he isn't going to win.

See, Romney is trying to portray a sense of gloom and doom, if you will, about the economy, referring to how bad it is, hoping to pin the blame for it on Mr. Obama.

The only problem is, people don't see it that way in places where it matters.

In swing states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, and Iowa, what people are being told by their Republican governors a contradicting story. They aren't seeing gloom and doom. Unemployment is way down in those places, and the economy is fine.

For this reason, Romney's message is failing in the must-win places. He's behind in Ohio, he's never been ahead in Wisconsin (the place where his running mate is from, for Pete's sake) and it's going to hurt him dearly.

He's leading in the national polls, but they mean nothing if the Electoral College doesn't turn out in his favor. If it turns out we get a popular vote/electoral vote split (which has been known to happen) he'll get bragging rights, but little else.

And that's why I think Mr. Obama has a better chance than you believe.

[Heald]

I just did the BBC 'call the election' thingie and called it 272 to 266 in favour of Obama:

Link

This is definitely going to be a tight race and harder and harder to call. Romney winning is more than an outside chance and the Dems really need to up their shit to stop this election being stolen from the jaws of victory. Otherwise Romney will steal the White House. This would be quite funny, as the rest of the world seems almost certain that Obama is going to win but the election of Romney will cause a worldwide jimmy rustling like never before.

[Roy Karrde]

For this reason, Romney's message is failing in the must-win places. He's behind in Ohio, he's never been ahead in Wisconsin (the place where his running mate is from, for Pete's sake) and it's going to hurt him dearly.

Romney is tied in Wisconsin

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...nsin_president

He is also tied in Ohio according to Sullfolk and Rasmussen.

By the way according to PPP and Rasmussen Romney was up by 1 in Wisconsin just a week and a half ago.

[Heald]

I might actually put a wager on Romney winning more than 250 electoral votes, I reckon that's an absolute certainty now.

[mattbcl]

I find it interesting that Libya is apparently no longer part of Romney's stumping, especially if the article from Fox is as damning as it would appear. You'd think he would want to pounce on it in the first 5 seconds of having seen it and use it to define yet another failing of the current administration.

[Roy Karrde]

I find it interesting that Libya is apparently no longer part of Romney's stumping, especially if the article from Fox is as damning as it would appear. You'd think he would want to pounce on it in the first 5 seconds of having seen it and use it to define yet another failing of the current administration.

Again the article is only a few hours old, and Romney already had a prepared speech today on the economy, not on foreign policy.

[Dark Sage]

Again the article is only a few hours old, and Romney already had a prepared speech today on the economy, not on foreign policy.

Well, CBS Newsradio still has nothing on it, and they're usually the first ones to break ANY story.

[mattbcl]

Again the article is only a few hours old, and Romney already had a prepared speech today on the economy, not on foreign policy.

I'm aware of that, but it would seem to be the perfect double-whammy, if he can get a statement out in the next news cycle - paint the current administration as wholly incompetent not only in domestic affairs, but foreign ones, as well. Conservatives have been grumbling about Libya having fallen to the wayside in Romney's speeches.

Enter one back-scratcher offered by our friends at Fox News.

[Roy Karrde]

Well, CBS Newsradio still has nothing on it, and they're usually the first ones to break ANY story.

And that means what? CBS is not the end all be all news source for breaking news

[Dark Sage]

I clicked on that link you provided, Heald.

Seems that five out of the six experts predicted that Obama would win. Two of them said Obama would gain more than 300 Electoral Votes. Go figure.

Edit: But CBS is far more respectable than Fox News, and I defy you to say otherwise.

[Roy Karrde]

Edit: But CBS is far more respectable than Fox News, and I defy you to say otherwise.

Dan Rather would have something to say about that...

[Dark Sage]

Roy, give it up.

That Fox News story won't even say who their source is. I'm willing to bet it's the same people who made the claim that Stevens was sodomized.

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, give it up.

For what reason? Right now it seems you are the one on defense.

That Fox News story won't even say who their source is. I'm willing to bet it's the same people who made the claim that Stevens was sodomized.

That would be pretty easy to check out, those that made the claim about Stevens was a Lebanese News Service.

More than likely the claim comes within the CIA, some one who is sick and tired of seeing their bosses engaging in a CYA coverup.

[Dark Sage]

Aw, man... Something just came over the wire that made me laugh so hard I almost fell out of my chair.

Romney's latest endorsment: Aging rock star Meat Loaf.

That sure is better than Obama's recent endorsment by Colin Powell, right guys?

Lol. Did I mention that Mr. Loaf was once a contestant on Donald Trump's reality show (I use the term loosely).

Romney sure is getting endorsments from a lot of kooks. And my message to him is, he can keep them!

[Roy Karrde]

Looks like Obama dodged the question if there were calls for help like in the Fox News story.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...ests-for-help/

[kurai]

Election Travels, Day Two

I still hear the wild dogs circling the camp. It feels like we haven't moved at all, yet such a long trek remains ahead of us. God, if only I had not dropped my knife - it would already be over.

FiveThirtyEight - Now-cast [no change]



RealClearPolitics - General Election: Romney vs. Obama



Intrade - 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)



Votamatic [no change]



electoral-vote.com



RealClearPolitics Electoral College Map [no change]



Talking Points Memo - Electoral Scoreboard



Huffington Post - Electoral Map



Karl Rove [no change]



UnSkewed Polls - Unskewed Projection [no change]



Princeton Election Consortium - Electoral College Map [new addition]



Washington Dispatch - Electoral College Count [new addition]



--



Go long, America.

[mr_pikachu]

UnSkewed Polls - Unskewed Projection [no change]

Huh. Well, that's a... different approach, I suppose.

I might be a little more inclined to buy into their analysis if I could find their results from 2008. I haven't been able to find anything of that sort, though, which suggests that this is the first year they've tried this analysis which is "expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia."

Somehow it just makes me wonder if they're ignorant of stratified sampling techniques. I agree that most of the polls have a slightly inaccurate stratification -- mathematically, if one poll is exactly correct, the others must be a little off -- but that doesn't mean we should throw out basic stratification as a whole. I also hesitate to accept their idea to average the last four elections together as one of their factors, as the political climate has changed quite a bit since 1996. (It also discounts reactionary effects, like the discontent with Bush -- who won two straight elections -- which contributed to Obama's 2008 victory.)

The more I look at this, the more this reeks of overfitting a statistical model. Maybe I'm missing something. Maybe they'll prove me wrong and Romney will carry two-thirds of the electoral college. But I'll believe it when I see it.