With Super Tuesday (February 5th) fast approaching, I figured it was time we had a topic to discuss this all-important nomination process.
Both the Republican and Democratic sides are engaging in heated battles for the top spot in their parties. Now that Fred Thompson has officially thrown in the towel, the main Republican hopefuls appear to be John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee. According to the delegate scorecard on CNN.com, the former two candidates split wins in Nevada and South Carolina on the 19th, and both will be looking to carry the momentum into the critical Florida primary on the 29th. Following a fast start in Iowa, Huckabee has fallen back with no more than five delegates won from any state since.
While he led the national polls for awhile, declining to campaign in many of the first several states appears to have been a critical blunder for Rudy Giuliani. RealClearPolitics (which, in my opinion, is one of the very few sites that actually tries to be somewhat impartial) now shows McCain leading the party nationally by anywhere from 4% to 14%. While Ron Paul has campaigned more, his message has not resonated with voters and he has accumulated only six delegates. Unless Huckabee (29 delegates) or Giuliani (2 delegates) can pick up the pace quickly, this could become a two-man race between McCain (38 delegates) and Romney (73 delegates).
The Democratic race is already much clearer, which only three candidates appearing to have any semblance of a chance. The two leaders, Hillary Clinton (218 delegates) and Barack Obama (127 delegates) currently hold an advantage over John Edwards (53 delegates). Following Obama's nine-point win in Iowa, Clinton has garnered more votes in New Hampshire and Nevada (but has earned fewer delegates in each state). With Michigan and Florida penalized for holding their primaries early, South Carolina's 45 delegates are the last at risk before Super Tuesday.
Despite currently holding the lead in estimated delegates, the shaky Clinton campaign may need help regaining its footing. A solid win on Saturday could help her do just that. A big win for Obama, however, could swing the national polls in his favor. Edwards is also looking for a score tomorrow; too many further losses could force him out of the race early.
So what do you think? What do you think about my analysis and that of other, slightly more famous political commentators? Who has the best chance to move on and make the big November contest? And who will you be voting for in the coming rounds (or, if you can't vote, who would you support)? This is your chance to speak up, so let your voice be heard!