2008 U.S. Presidential Election - Primaries

[mr_pikachu]

Hmm, that doesn't bode well for Clinton. Part of the key in mass advertising is to get the public's attention, take a death grip on it, and never let go. It sounds as though Clinton's slower advertisements are falling into the classic trap of lacking energy, while Obama's emphasize the charisma of his campaign. The speed, like you said, doesn't give the viewer the chance to look away; Clinton's slower ads sound as if they induce yawning.

Also, a 2-to-1 advantage in quantity isn't always a good thing when the quality is poorer. Just as you would notice the one red brick in the middle of a gray wall, Clinton's advertisements run the risk of blurring together while Obama's stand out.

Very intriguing. Clinton just can't take advantage of her resources...

[Roy Karrde]

Here is a example of the two main ads that are running in the DFW Area.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JnwkY2L74c <- Obama

Anyway I figured I would put together a series of clips from old Campeigns. See how much has changed in the message ( Or hasn't changed... )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwXtJvm1Zws <- Bill Clinton 1992 Economy ( It will restore our economy )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-LzNi--bgw <- George Bush 1980 ( Bring Excellence back to America/Washington )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgS_q...eature=related <- George W Bush 2004 Defend America ( I will defend America, what ever it takes )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ujaix6ya54 <- Jimmy Carter 1976 Leader for Change ( Walls built around Washington )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE7JDIkiEZg <- John F Kennedy 1960 ( Health care for seniors )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY <- Ronald Reagan 1984 Peace ( Working together for Peace for our children )

[firepokemon]

CNN Poll has Obama over Clinton by 4% in Texas.

Though these polls are all over the place and this is just one poll. But the polls in Texas were lowering already, one would need to see CNN's demographics of the people they polled. What ages, were they latino, were they black, were they independents, or were they even republicans crossing over.

Edit: Well actually ARG American Research Group has a texas poll with Obama up by 8%.

Thus RealClear Politics has Clinton up by just one. RCP of course takes a look at all polls and that will change.

I still think the polls are wrong. Obama could well win in Texas with a 10% spread and if that happens, it will be independents and young people.

Likewise Clinton could win by 10% in Texas depending on how the Latino vote goes and who turns out to the polls.

[mr_pikachu]

Clinton, Obama clash over NAFTA, Iraq

The gritty battle's getting all the harsher. They're shooting back and forth while complaining about the already negative campaign... this makes me wonder why Clinton expects that the general election would be so much harder for Obama than the primary. This clash has been nothing but one assault after another, on every topic from tax returns to Saturday Night Live.

If you need more proof that this is an exceptionally intense fight, you should know about the man who stabbed his brother over the nomination.

Clinton Lead Slipping in Ohio

The Rasmussen poll has Clinton's lead down to 5%, while the RCP Average has it at 6.8%. Obama currently leads the RCP Texas polls by an average of 1.2%. He has been gaining ground fairly steadily in both polls for the last 8-9 days.

[Magmar]

I met Clinton on Sunday!

Click!
That's my article about the event. And picture. <3

[firepokemon]

Magmar is she likely to win Rhode Island or is it up in the air as to who is likely to take out your state.

[Clark]

who cares, she runs NY. and Chelsea has been getting better looking. i def want some of that.

[firepokemon]

Acey stop being so pastey.

[mr_pikachu]

Bloomberg not running for president

Let's be realistic. Super Tuesday was over three weeks ago. Did anyone not see this coming?

[Katie]

I sent in my absentee ballot today! Gogogo Obama! Also: my old math teacher, an awesome dude, is running for rep, if anyone happens to be in TX district 3 vote Minkow

Huckabee and Chuck Norris visited my campus today. Why is he still running again? Oh well, rednecks here loved him and his gimmick supporter.

[mr_pikachu]

Clinton ad stirs waters

The advertising is getting more intense heading into the big Tuesday primary. Obama holds a 2% lead in Texas according to RealClearPolitics, while Hillary has a five-point edge in Ohio. Clinton has a solid lead in Rhode Island as well, while Obama has a massive advantage in Vermont.

One way or another, Obama's double-digit winning streak is about to end. But it doesn't exactly look like Clinton is positioned to recover much ground.

[firepokemon]

I think you're right about Clinton. Texas has her down and even if she wins the primary. 1/3 or 1/4 of the delegates are decided in a caucus where Obama has tended to do well. I would say though that Clinton can win Texas depending on who votes and Obama could well win by 10%. It just really depends on what demographics and ethnic groups turn out.

In Ohio, Clinton's lead is definately getting smaller, and Obama could well by Tuesday grab the lead, but Clinton thus far is holding Ohio.

Rhode Island is funny, because Obama is advertising more yet Clinton is leading, though RCP doesn't exactly have that many polls on Rhode Island. So Obama could potentially take it.

In Vermont. Obama is looking good, but I don't think one should look at the polls slowly.

Finally, I think Clinton must win Texas and Ohio otherwise I just can't see her gaining enough delegates. But I also think that all four primaries regardless of what the polls are saying are up in the air. Potentially they'll all be close, or all four will go to one candidate. Or someone could win big in one or more states. Its that open.

[mr_pikachu]

Obama spends heavily to seek knockout blow

Both candidates are spending like crazy in Texas and Ohio. This was to be expected, as Tuesday is the biggest set of primaries remaining for the Democrats.

But there's one quote here that's worth special mention.

Mrs. Clinton’s advisers have suggested that she will bow out of the race if she falters in either state, after 11 straight losses.

Let us therefore turn to the RCP averages in both states.

Ohio: Clinton +4.0%
Texas: Obama +0.8%

Obama's Texas numbers declined on February 29th, as his lead in the Zogby poll plunged from 6% to 2%. He also lost 5 points in the InsiderAdvantage survey on the 27th, which negated his gains in Rasmussen.

This showdown could be all or nothing...

[firepokemon]

Its so close in these polls. Oh I wish I didn't have 3 classes on that day. I'll prolly be home and half the results will be over.

Edit:

My predictions.

Clinton beats Obama in Texas Primary via women and latinos.

Clinton just beats Obama in the Texas caucus.

Clinton wins in Ohio by 5% thanks to low income voters.

Clinton wins in Rhode Island by 10%.

Obama wins in Vermont by 15% thanks to Clinton basically ignoring the state.

Edit No. 2.

And bleh either my browser went crazy or tpm I had to type this thing out so many times. And I ended up changing it from Obama and Clinton basically tied in caucus to Clinton winning it. I thought I'd predict now before I got too influenced by what polls and articles would say.

[mr_pikachu]

The big primary is today. Does anyone else have any predictions for Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont?

My thoughts: Rhode Island and Vermont are blowouts. My assessment is basically identical to fp's here.

I agree that Hillary will win in Ohio, but it probably won't be by as much as the polls suggest. It may be splitting hairs, but I'm guessing she squeaks it by 2-3%.

As for Texas, I predict a similar slight shift toward Obama; I have him winning by 1, maybe 2 percent there. It's hard to place complete faith in the standard polls, as many of them haven't completely figured out how to deal with the "Obama factor," which I perceive simply as so-called "unlikely" voters going to the polls.

The bigger question for me is whether Clinton will live up to the previous suggest that she will drop out in the event of a split. Personally, I think it was just a ploy to get her supporters to vote: "If she doesn't win here, it's over! I'd better do my part!" Almost as good as crying and whining.

[firepokemon]

The real funny thing is that these primaries all have completely different rules with how they are distributed. Some of them are proportional some of them are to do with the district and reaching certain percentages grant you more. Its so bizarre that I found so many different explanations just for Ohio alone that to show how the delegates are done and how they are awarded is just too difficult.

[mr_pikachu]

Looking at the RealClearPolitics data for Texas, I've noticed something odd. There are currently eight major polls being tracked for the RCP Average, which Clinton leads by 0.3%. One of these, the WFAA is tied. Of the remaining seven, Obama leads in five: three by 1% and two by 3%. Clinton leads in only two - but by 5% and 6%, respectively.

At first I was willing to consider them balancing polls that might counterbalance the skewing of the others, but now I wonder if they're statistical outliers. The two polls to which I'm referring are InsiderAdvantage and PPP. Looking at the past data for the Texas primary, they have consistently leaned more toward the Clinton side than the other polls throughout this campaign.

As an example, the Feb. 25 InsiderAdvantage poll had Obama leading by 1% while SurveyUSA and ARG had him up by 4% and 8%, respectively. PPP presented a tie on Feb 23-24, right in between those two aforementioned polls. So are they counterweights or does their manner of collection and interpretation somehow incorrectly skew them toward Clinton?

[firepokemon]

Polls are all over the place. Look at the ones you consider to be fairly accurate ie. reuters, CNN, NYT, Fox, AP those kinda ones and ignore the rest. But these polls have not been very accurate whatsoever.

Makeup of Ohio delegates:

161 delegates
Of those 20 are superdelegates
Remaining 141 delegates split into two parts.
92 are split amongOhio's 18 Congressional Districts and are awarded proportionally,
Remaining 49 delegates awarded proportional to the state-wide result.

Makeup of Texas delegates
228 delegates
35 superdelegates
Remaining 193 divided into 126 district delegates and 67 state-wide delegates
1/3 of delegates awarded in caucus.

Makeup of Rhode Island delegates
32 delegates
11 super delegates
Remaining 21 delegates
Of those 21 delegates there are 13 district delegates and 8 state-wide delegates.
The 13 delegates are divided among two congressional districts.

Makeup of Vermont delegates
23 delegates
8 superdelegates
15 delegates awarded. 10 via congressional districts and 5 via state-wide results.
And here is where it gets even more complicated.

The Vermont Democratic Party uses the results of the state's presidential preference primary on March 4 to determine the allocation of delegates to each presidential candidate. Though the primary is used for allocation of delegates, the delegates themselves are selected in a caucus process. On March 22, the Party holds a series of town-level caucuses to select its first tier of delegates. On May 24, the Party holds its state convention in which the town-level delegates select the 10 district-level delegates that will attend the 2008 Democratic National Convention. The remaining 5 pledged delegates plus an unpledged delegate are selected at the Vermont Democratic Party's National Convention Delegate Meeting on June 7.[1]

Information gathered via news articles and wikipedia and a few blogs.

Bleh so as you can see these primaries are fucking complicated. Because blacks tend to vote in elections the districts where blacks live get more delegates and cities also get higher delegates. Thus Clinton could win the popular vote but still not win the delegate count. And Texas is so complicated with its rules that I'm sure half of it is wrong.

[mr_pikachu]

This process would be so much simpler if we just switched to a national poll. For both parts. All this nonsense with delegates and electoral votes is irritating. I keep score of baseball games and this is getting to be too much.

It's not that the rules for individual states are complicated, but why do we need to bother with having so many rules? It clutters up the whole process and keeps it from being transparent.


EDIT: Maybe someday we'll have massive groups of people (perhaps pollsters!) betting on long-shots in elections and then conspiring to throw those elections with their own votes. The Black Sox meet the White House.

Nader 2080!

[Clark]

kaboom
wheres the love for women. hillary better win. :p

[Roy Karrde]

I figured I would add in something interesting for the Texas Primaries. Last night we had a bit of a Snow/Ice storm that moved through. While it wasn't enough to snow anyone in, it did ice some of the freeways a bit, as well as ice people's cars. The freeways are incredibly backed up right now and many schools are starting late.

Becuase of that many in North Texas where the Black Population is heavy ( Dallas being the biggest black populated area ) may decide not to go vote before work due to the increased traffic. As well as the incredibly windy and cold conditions outside today.

[Clark]

good. they should just stick to being lazy bums like usual.

[firepokemon]

Obama and McCain projected to win Vermont. No surprise here, the constituents just were not in Huckabee or Clinton's favour. Must be big margins if they can project already.

Edit:

McCain projected to win Ohio.

[Roy Karrde]

WBAP: "You are really starting to see Hillary's base coming out. That being women who are starting to say that they do care about the safety of their family, that they care about their job. And it is starting to swing momentum away from Obama and back toward Hillary in Texas and Ohio."

"People are having buyer's remorse now, taking a hard look at Obama and saying "Is this who we really want as the Democrat Nominee"

Also Texas may not be decided for another two hours becuase of El Paso and it's large hispanic population voting in the Mountain Time Zone. Also today's voting in Texas has been huge and packed, but there are rumors coming out of the Clinton camp of voter intimidation at precincts.

Hillary is about to take over in Texas, won Ohio, and won Roade Island. So I found a Post Card to pretty much sum up the night.

[firepokemon]

McCain has won enough delegates to offically be named the republican nominee for the 2008 Presidential campaign.

Hillary wins big in Rhode Island. Clinton with a sizeable lead (at this stage in Ohio). Clinton currently in Lead in Texas.

I feel the Clinton train coming.

[Roy Karrde]

I feel the Clinton train coming.

Lol Mark Davis is having a orgasm on the radio with Clinton winning, also rumor has it that in Harris county * Houston Texas * The Obama Caucusers are shutting the door on the Clinton Cacusers. And becuase of the Texas system, the Caucus vote could be the biggest vote of the night.

Figured I would break this down by spin, feel free to change it for what you believe.

Obama Supporter: We are still ahead in deligates, and we have a large majority of the populous backing us, Clinton won her firewall states like she was planning to, no real big surprises.

Clinton Supporter: Obama is beatable, we are coming back and we are going to win. Obama has won alot of states that the Democrats will lose in the election anyway. Hillary will win Democrat States and help keep California in play.

Republicans: Grab a beer and relax, the Democrats have to spend another 4 weeks fighting eachother and spending more and more money attacking eachother. If it comes to the Convention with Obama having more supporters, but Clinton having more deligates. The Democrat party will tear itself apart.

[firepokemon]

Clinton projected to win Texas Primary. The percentage is small and the way texas delegates are awarded could benefit Obama.

So far 5% of Texas caucus in with Obama by 10%.

Edit: Not watching tv but CNN has at 9pm NZT (so 3am EST) Obama by 10 with 35% of the caucus precincts reporting in.

How slow are these caucus numbers. And more importantly how credible are these caucus results. The way they're taking is so up for corruption.

[The Blue Avenger]

Republicans: Grab a beer and relax, the Democrats have to spend another 4 weeks fighting eachother and spending more and more money attacking eachother. If it comes to the Convention with Obama having more supporters, but Clinton having more deligates. The Democrat party will tear itself apart.

Yeah, I definitely think the Republicans are in the best spot they could be right now.

Dammit, Democrats, pull it together.

[mr_pikachu]

Clinton hints at shared ticket

Yeah, like that's gonna happen. Obama's totally going to just drop his whole campaign right here so that he can claim the #2 role on the Clinton ticket. The fact is, this campaign may very well go down to the wire (maybe even to convention), and the longer it drags on the less likely these two are to form a team.

It seems more like a strategic jab to me. Although she was far more overt in certain other post-primary comments, this was one instance where she basically implied that Obama was suddenly the underdog (a possible argument, since she now has momentum) and let the voters draw their own conclusions. Seems like a rare tactful attack from her - it's a damaging thought to which Obama can't directly respond because she didn't actually say anything about his chances.

...Except for the other 99.7% of her commentary, of course. Oh well.

[firepokemon]

Well this Texas Caucus is a shamble. Not only for its controversy but the fact results are so fucking slow coming out for it. Frankly these caucuses are essentially a grassroots institution that fronts as a democratic and safe way of doing politics. But is in its entirely frankly undemocratic.

And what the hell is with america and voting? Is it that fucking hard to have a proper ballot where people just make a tick to the nominee that they want?

Anyway delegates from primaries:

Ohio:

Clinton 71
Obama 59

Rhode Island:

Clinton 13
Obama 8

Texas:

Clinton 65
Obama 61

Vermont:

Obama 9
Clinton 6

Vermont and Rhode Island. You can pretty much say those are the numbers. Ohio close but Texas needs sorting and the caucus results need to be done.

[mr_pikachu]

Slightly changing the subject for a moment...

Dean urges do-over voting in Fla., Mich.

As much as I hate to say it, this is looking more and more likely by the day. It doesn't seem like Florida and Michigan should be rewarded for breaking party rules - if this goes through, the nation will focus on their primary twice - and while I don't particularly mind, it would drain the budget of... well, someone. They're still bickering over who has to foot the bill. It also benefits the candidate who broke the boycott initially: namely, Clinton. While I can't be objective here since I'm firmly anti-Hillary, that doesn't seem entirely fair.

Also, Texas in second day of counting caucus results. They hope to finish sometime today, but it could extend into tomorrow.

[firepokemon]

I hope they do a do-over. They're just too important states to be ignored. As for the Texas Caucus - these things are shambles and should be replaced by primaries. Democratically they sound nice, but they most definately do not sound democratic to me.

[Roy Karrde]

I hope they do a do-over. They're just too important states to be ignored.

The problem that arises is that Clinton already has a major advantage already in both of them. She spent tons of money in both Michigan and Florida, even though the votes did not count. So she already has a base to build upon.

As for the Texas Caucus - these things are shambles and should be replaced by primaries. Democratically they sound nice, but they most definately do not sound democratic to me.

You have no idea what a Cluster F the Texas Caucus is, the thing is that Texas is so far in the back when it comes to Caucuses that it is just a formality 99.9999% of the time. So everyone goes with the idea of "Why fix something that usually recieves local caucus votes of 6 people". Which is why many locations were utterly overwhelmed Tuesday night, places that at best saw 6 people in 04, saw nearly 200 to 1,000 on last Tuesday.

[firepokemon]

Obama wins Wyoming 59% to 40. No real surprise. A natural republican state going for the bluest of the blue democratic candidates who just happens to have an excellent grassroots campaign. There were several places that Clinton could have won ie. Maine and others but she chose to essentially ignore them. To her peril I might add.

Mississippi also looks good for Obama. The problem Clinton is having is shes not winning places as big as Obama is doing which is really hurting her. And where she doesn't think she can win she tends to ignore them thus Obama produces big wins. Thus he continues gaining delegates because she realises he will win but then doesn't think about how many delegates he can get.

I see in Texas Clinton only gained one more delegate than Obama according to AP. Rather pitiful really. So Clinton wins by 100, 000 and all its worth is one delegate? Big states lose to small states its that simple.

[Toxicity]

Slightly changing the subject for a moment...

Dean urges do-over voting in Fla., Mich.

As much as I hate to say it, this is looking more and more likely by the day. It doesn't seem like Florida and Michigan should be rewarded for breaking party rules - if this goes through, the nation will focus on their primary twice - and while I don't particularly mind, it would drain the budget of... well, someone. They're still bickering over who has to foot the bill. It also benefits the candidate who broke the boycott initially: namely, Clinton. While I can't be objective here since I'm firmly anti-Hillary, that doesn't seem entirely fair.

If you want to know the truth, here's the vocalized mind of Gov. Crist this past week:

"Stay here, baseball! You're important to Florida's economy...oh well, let's spend money and make the legislature session start in splendor...nono, I really don't want to do another primary. Wait, what was I talking about agai--oh! Money!"

It seems like he doesn't want to waste time and make Democrats vote a second time - as late as June supposedly - although his mind is clearly elsewhere. While I do agree with you as to the likelihood of Michigan and Florida both having another primary, I don't think it should happen unless the nomination is too close to call. Of course, this is assuming neither candidate slips up within the next few weeks and/or drops.

Democrats aside, I still wonder where self-proclaimed "true red Republicans" plan to go given how many have announced strong disagreement with McCain's views. Could this mean Nader's Raiders will be stronger than ever?

[firepokemon]

Well the final results are in for Wyoming with Obama winning 61& to 38% pikcing up seven delegates to Clinton's five.

What really gets me though and I realise these caucus and primary rules are different state to state is that Obama won about 1500 more votes thus gaining two extra delegates while in the big states someone would need to win a far bigger number of votes to gain an extra delegate.

[firepokemon]

Well the Mississippi primary is over and done with and once again Obama wins big. I really think Clinton made a big mistake to not at least court some more votes. But clearly Obama is a black candidate and clearly they see him as winnable so they vote for him. No doubt Bill Clinton played a part. But I do think the blacks would have went with Obama anyway. So Obama wins 61% to Clintons 37% and picks up 19 delegates to 14 which I find simply astounding.

No change in the Texas caucus I guess we just wait and see. And now there is like six weeks till Pennsylvania. So I prolly won't think much about the primary season till we get near the Pennsylvania primary.

[Roy Karrde]

Well Obama is imploding, and it is great! The numbers came out today that 1 in 5 Democrats will vote for McCain if their nominee isn't elected.

Yet that isn't the big thing, that isn't the big news of today. Obama yesterday was on a interview and talked about his Grandmother. Saying she is a "Typical White Person in that if they are walking down the street and see some one they do not know, there is a reaction that comes out" that is the exact quote, Typical. White. Person.

The true Obama is really starting to show through.

[firepokemon]

Is anyone surprised? I can't say I am. Anyone that offers such an optimistic message needs to be carefully vetted because they always have surprises.

[Toxicity]

Not so shocked following the obvious - Reverend Wright's remarks.

Even then, this makes no sense that he'd renounce part of his multiracial heritage; the part that he was raised by. Unless the preachings did change his view entirely.