2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Roy Karrde]

This article is pretty obviously PNAC nonsense. Consider the central thesis: "it is important to remember this: He has absolutely no chance to win the Republican nomination for president. This is largely, though not entirely, due to his foreign policy views."

Such is entirely counter-intuitive to actual polling data:



What of the argumentation?

Largely it is true, while his strength may be in a isolationist Foreign Policy view, the American Public by and large are focused on the economy, not Foreign Policy, and even then Republicans by and large do not support isolationist policies.

Now lets look where Ron Paul's support is coming from.

In a hotly-contested Republican race, it appears that only about half of Paul’s supporters are Republicans. In Iowa, according to Rasmussen, just 51 percent of Paul supporters consider themselves Republicans. In New Hampshire, the number is 56 percent, according to Andrew Smith, head of the University of New Hampshire poll.

The same New Hampshire survey found that 87 percent of the people who support Romney consider themselves Republicans. For Newt Gingrich, it’s 85 percent.

So who is supporting Paul? In New Hampshire, Paul is the choice of just 13 percent of Republicans, according to the new poll, while he is the favorite of 36 percent of independents and 26 percent of Democrats who intend to vote in the primary. Paul leads in both non-Republican categories.

“Paul is doing the best job of getting those people who aren’t really Republicans but say they’re going to vote in the Republican primary,” explains Smith. Among that group are libertarians, dissatisfied independents and Democrats who are “trying to throw a monkey wrench in the campaign by voting for someone who is more philosophically extreme,” says Smith.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexamin...op-race/276751

Only half of his base are Republicans, that will not help him in closed primary states. This could even trigger a backlash among Republicans who feel that those outside of the party are trying to elect a nut to help Obama win.

By the way, as of today the Democrats chances to retain the Senate got a lot harder.

Democrats have no candidate waiting in the wings. They will have to scramble for a candidate who can quickly organize a statewide campaign and raise millions in less than a year, while competing against Republicans who have been in campaign mode for more than a year.

It’s not impossible, but the odds are long. Some Democrats whose names have been bandied about as possible contenders include State Sen. Steve Lathrop and former Lt. Gov. Kim Robak.

For Republicans, the dream of holding all five of Nebraska’s congressional seats and all five statewide offices is now within reach.

Nelson was the lone Democrat to hold a high statewide or federal office in Nebraska. The next highest-ranking Democrat in the state is Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle.

http://www.omaha.com/article/2011122...tedly-retiring

Ben Nelson was probably going to lose anyway, but now the chances of retaining the seat becoming slimmer and slimmer.