2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[kurai]

Here's what I don't understand, what happens when a candidate like say Santorum, wins the iowa primaries and seems to be close to possibly winning them all, but he isn't on some of the ballots for the states? Virginia only has Romney and Ron Paul on our ballot. I suppose they could do a write in but most people are too lazy lol they just pick one or the other. Not that I have a problem with that since I'm not big on any of the ones who were left out, just curious?

Don't really know all the primary 'rules', can anyone give me a quick lowdown, never really been interested in politics lol

Okay. The whole process is decided at an almost entirely arbitrary level locally. It's all about allocating delegates towards conventions.

The definition of 'local' varies based on the type of primary.

Yesterday, in Iowa, there was a non-binding caucus. As it is non-binding, the caucus itself is pretty meaningless and does not actually determine the outcome of Iowa's 25 delegates to the nomination convention in August. The state party structure can ultimately direct them to do whatever they like (this won't ultimately happen until perhaps June). If you had watched the proceedings on C-Span or otherwise, local party meetings essentially decided on their own rules and voted for their presidential nominee preference. Caucuses are party-organized local gatherings. In Urbandale, for example, they held an open voting round on procedure before balloting, and set a limit of 15% support to qualify to send a local delegate upwards to the state level.

Next week, in New Hampshire, we will have a semi-closed primary. A primary tends to imitate an election and is significantly more binding on its delegates - it's also organized by the state itself and directly subject to law. It is semi-closed because both Republican party members and undeclared voters can participate in the nominee preference voting process. Entrance to the ballot itself only requires a $1,000 filing fee.

Following this, there is South Carolina, an open primary (no party restriction). Then we have Florida, with a closed primary (total party restriction). This is a 50 delegate, winner-takes-all contest. One month from now, Nevada holds a binding caucus - to get on its ballot, you needed $10,000 and a declaration of your candidacy. They have a precinct caucus to determine delegates for the county convention, which moves to the state convention, which then goes onwards to the final level. In this process, you support the delegates which support the nominee that you prefer, but the delegates aren't really bound until the state convention.

Virginia has an open primary on Super Tuesday. In such a case, it needs a formal ballot process. It follows a proportional method: "Representation shall be based on a percentage of the total number of Republican votes cast in each county and city in the last gubernatorial and presidential election combined. Each unit is entitled to one (1) Delegate Vote for each two hundred fifty (250) votes cast or major portion thereof for the Republican candidate in the most recent elections for President and Governor. Each unit shall be entitled to at least one (1) Delegate Vote." Perhaps your county only gets 20 state delegates, which then aim towards the allocation of Virginia's 50 delegates to the national convention. The national convention will involve 2286 delegates.

Virginia will have 50 of the 438 total delegates available that day, but perhaps it is a particularly expensive media market not worth campaigning in (I would guess this is the case). Santorum is ranked last in fundraising and has essentially only campaigned in Iowa. He will not be able to run his Iowa-style operation in every Super Tuesday state - he has neither the time nor the funds. The aim is to eliminate the competition through withdrawl and concession before this point... because a large amount of the delegates are not going to be bound towards anyone in particular until mid-year! This strategy probably won't work for Santorum, but it is the reason why Romney is the perennial frontrunner. Get money, stay in the race.

[Asilynne]

Okay. The whole process is decided at an almost entirely arbitrary level locally. It's all about allocating delegates towards conventions.

The definition of 'local' varies based on the type of primary.

Yesterday, in Iowa, there was a non-binding caucus. As it is non-binding, the caucus itself is pretty meaningless and does not actually determine the outcome of Iowa's 25 delegates to the nomination convention in August. The state party structure can ultimately direct them to do whatever they like (this won't ultimately happen until perhaps June). If you had watched the proceedings on C-Span or otherwise, local party meetings essentially decided on their own rules and voted for their presidential nominee preference. Caucuses are party-organized local gatherings. In Urbandale, for example, they held an open voting round on procedure before balloting, and set a limit of 15% support to qualify to send a local delegate upwards to the state level.

Next week, in New Hampshire, we will have a semi-closed primary. A primary tends to imitate an election and is significantly more binding on its delegates - it's also organized by the state itself and directly subject to law. It is semi-closed because both Republican party members and undeclared voters can participate in the nominee preference voting process. Entrance to the ballot itself only requires a $1,000 filing fee.

Following this, there is South Carolina, an open primary (no party restriction). Then we have Florida, with a closed primary (total party restriction). This is a 50 delegate, winner-takes-all contest. One month from now, Nevada holds a binding caucus - to get on its ballot, you needed $10,000 and a declaration of your candidacy. They have a precinct caucus to determine delegates for the county convention, which moves to the state convention, which then goes onwards to the final level. In this process, you support the delegates which support the nominee that you prefer, but the delegates aren't really bound until the state convention.

Virginia has an open primary on Super Tuesday. In such a case, it needs a formal ballot process. It follows a proportional method: "Representation shall be based on a percentage of the total number of Republican votes cast in each county and city in the last gubernatorial and presidential election combined. Each unit is entitled to one (1) Delegate Vote for each two hundred fifty (250) votes cast or major portion thereof for the Republican candidate in the most recent elections for President and Governor. Each unit shall be entitled to at least one (1) Delegate Vote." Perhaps your county only gets 20 state delegates, which then aim towards the allocation of Virginia's 50 delegates to the national convention. The national convention will involve 2286 delegates.

Virginia will have 50 of the 438 total delegates available that day, but perhaps it is a particularly expensive media market not worth campaigning in (I would guess this is the case). Santorum is ranked last in fundraising and has essentially only campaigned in Iowa. He will not be able to run his Iowa-style operation in every Super Tuesday state - he has neither the time nor the funds. The aim is to eliminate the competition through withdrawl and concession before this point... because a large amount of the delegates are not going to be bound towards anyone in particular until mid-year! This strategy probably won't work for Santorum, but it is the reason why Romney is the perennial frontrunner. Get money, stay in the race.

Thank you kurai