2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Dark Sage]

I hate to double-post, but...

The President's stimulus program has been called by many to be "wasteful government spending" and "a failure".

Or is it?

http://cbo.gov/publication/43014

[Roy Karrde]

I hate to double-post, but...

The President's stimulus program has been called by many to be "wasteful government spending" and "a failure".

Or is it?

http://cbo.gov/publication/43014

No it is still a unmitigated failure, the CBO has had a lot of trouble estimating how well or how poorly it has done because of how the Obama White House has screwed with the numbers so that even if a job received even a dime of money it was counted as created or saved.

That being said I do not know how anyone could not call it both a failure and wasteful government spending when you look at the cost, what was promised, and the piss poor results that followed.

By the way this alone should be what shows it is a unmitigated failure.

The rate of unemployment in the United States has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, making the past three years the longest stretch of high unemployment in this country since the Great Depression. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the unemployment rate will remain above 8 percent until 2014. The official unemployment rate excludes those individuals who would like to work but have not searched for a job in the past four weeks as well as those who are working part-time but would prefer full-time work; if those people were counted among the unemployed, the unemployment rate in January 2012 would have been about 15 percent. Compounding the problem of high unemployment, the share of unemployed people looking for work for more than six months—referred to as the long-term unemployed—topped 40 percent in December 2009 for the first time since 1948, when such data began to be collected; it has remained above that level ever since.

That metric alone makes gives it a F, Obama campaigned that passing the Stimulus would keep unemployment below 8% that if not it would rise above 8%. That was the reason that it must be passed. It failed.

Edit: Further information on how the CBO gauges how jobs are created with the Stimulus money.

Douglas Elmendorf, the head of the Congressional Budget Office, has stated plainly that his team’s estimates do not measure real-world outputs (just inputs), that they do not serve as an independent check on its success or failure, and that if the stimulus had not created jobs, the CBO’s figures would not reflect that fact. So no, sorry, try again: The CBO’s updates do not actually confirm whether or not the stimulus is creating jobs.

In other news...

While the GOP candidates are campaigning in Michigan, about 250 auto worker marched to protest Romney, who as you know, wanted to let the auto companies go bankrupt. Almost all of them, when asked, say that they are supporting Obama. A lot of them say that Romney should have stayed in Massechusetts.

If I had to guess, I'd say that Romney will win the Michigan primary... But I would also guess that Michigan will turn from swing state to blue state, if it hasn't already.

Wow yeah 250 auto workers... yeah the UAW is really calling in the heavy guns now!

[Dark Sage]

Roy, people were saying that the country was at risk of slipping into a full-scale depression.

To compare an actual depression to the situation we have now, according to an online textbook I looked up, the unemployment rate in the United States averaged around 25% during the Great Depression. And it was worse in other countries, reaching 33% in some.

Now, call everything Obama has done a failure, but he has prevented such a crisis from happening.

Might I add, the DJIA has flirted with its highest close in years.

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, people were saying that the country was at risk of slipping into a full-scale depression.

To compare an actual depression to the situation we have now, according to an online textbook I looked up, the unemployment rate in the United States averaged around 25% during the Great Depression. And it was worse in other countries, reaching 33% in some.

Now, call everything Obama has done a failure, but he has prevented such a crisis from happening.

And instead of actually not wasting 800 billion dollars and allowing those companies to fail and then we rebound our economy, we have had 3 years of stagnation, with atleast from what the CBO is reporting atleast two more to come.

Might I add, the DJIA has flirted with its highest close in years.

Which means very little, I point you to what Democratic Strategists are saying.

Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg is out with a must-read polling memo this morning, which offers some eye-opening advice to President Obama and his re-election team. After testing several of the president’s economic messages, he finds the argument that the economy is back on the right track polls miserably – and “produces disastrous results.”

“It is weaker than even the weakest Republican message and is 10 points weaker in intensity than either Republican message,” Greenberg wrote. “A third said this message made them less likely to support Barack Obama. Alarmingly, this message barely receives majority support among self-identified Democrats – and even less support among all other groups.”

The memo reads as a glaring wake-up call to the White House, which has been trumpeting improving economic figures lately. Greenberg notes that voters are reporting “no improvement” in their job situation since last June, and have experienced reduced wages and benefits and health insurance coverage. The picture Greenberg’s polling paints is an America public still deeply pessimistic about their future, and skeptical of Obama’s handling of the economy.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...dont-think.php

If any Democrat wishes to run on the message of "Happy days are here again" PLEASE be my guest.

[Dark Sage]

If any Democrat wishes to run on the message of "Happy days are here again" PLEASE be my guest.

Did I say that? Please don't put words in my mouth.

The country isn't in great shape, but I don't see the GOP offering any solutions. They simply been anti-Obama for the past three years.

Before you go into detail about the bills they've tried to pass, please look at them closely. They were all ridiculous and would have accomplished nothing.

They waste time with repelate bills that die in the Senate, bring up issues like keeping "In God We Trust" on our currency, and dubunk every policy that Obama tries to impose.

In fact, I sincerely believe that if the Affordable Health Care Act were initiated by a Republican President (as Romney might have if he had been nominated and elected in 2008) no-one would have any problem with it. The GOP can't stand the fact that they aren't running things.

And after the mess at that debate on Wednesday, I think they've hurt their chances of "running things" a great deal.

[Roy Karrde]

Did I say that? Please don't put words in my mouth.

By quoting the DOW you are inferring that the economy is getting better.

The country isn't in great shape, but I don't see the GOP offering any solutions. They simply been anti-Obama for the past three years.

Before you go into detail about the bills they've tried to pass, please look at them closely. They were all ridiculous and would have accomplished nothing.

They waste time with repelate bills that die in the Senate, bring up issues like keeping "In God We Trust" on our currency, and dubunk every policy that Obama tries to impose.

Really? All 30+ bills the GOP House has passed are ridiculous and accomplish nothing? I thought you were only posting facts.

Lets look at a few shall we?

The Small Company Capital Formation bill changes SEC rules to allow companies to sell up to $50 million in shares without filing lengthy paperwork — and its equivalent passed the House by a vote of 421 to 1. Sen. Pat Toomey has introduced the companion measure in the Senate, and his bill enjoys the support of numerous Democratic co-sponsors.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s Shareholder Registration Thresholds bill would increase the number of shareholders permitted to invest in a community bank from 500 to 2,000. Its House version passed the lower chamber by a slightly smaller margin than Sen. Toomey’s bill — or 420 to 2. Democratic senators Claire McCaskill, Ben Nelson and Mark Pryor are co-sponsors.

The Access to Capital for Job Creators act, sponsored by Sen. John Thune, would eliminate an SEC regulation that inhibits companies from reaching out to potential investors in order to raise capital. More than 400 members of the House voted for its equivalent, too — 175 of them Democrats.

The House version of Sen. Scott Brown’s Democratizing Access to Capital act drew the support of 169 House Democrats — and 407 members of the House total. It would change SEC regulations that inhibit entrepreneurs from raising capital among large groups of small dollar investors.

Atleast 4 of the GOP's 30+ job bills have drawn MASSIVE support, and yet the Democrats in the Senate have held it up. So does that mean that all of these Democratic congressmen believe they are ridiculous and accomplish nothing?

In fact, I sincerely believe that if the Affordable Health Care Act were initiated by a Republican President (as Romney might have if he had been nominated and elected in 2008) no-one would have any problem with it. The GOP can't stand the fact that they aren't running things.

Doubtful, Washington may not want to repeal it, but the states which bear the burden of the ridiculous law would be jumping at the chance to repeal it.

[Dark Sage]

In other news...

Rick Santorum has publically denounced Mr. Obama for his apology for the accidental burning of several copies of the Quran, the incident that has caused a crisis in Afghanistan. He says that the President showed "weakness" by doing so.

Mr. Santorum, if I may be blunt... Apologizing does not show weakness, it shows class, compassion, and understanding, all things you would not know if they punched you in the face. I'll bet you would demand an apology from the ruler of Afghanistan if it had been members of his militia burning copies of the Bible.

That's my $0.02

[Dark Sage]

Romney seems to agree with Santorum here. Big surprise.

Come to think of it, apologizing is something that Republicans seem to be loath to do. I certainly never heard the words "I'm sorry" come out of Bush's mouth. Limbaugh apologized once in his career, i believe. Every other time he said something that turned out to be a boldfaced lie, he made excuses.

Obama has to apologize. We need the support of the government of Afghanistan. Because the GOP doesn't want to raise taxes, we lack the funds to fight the Taliban by ourselves. And unless we discover a cave full of pirates' treasure somewhere on US soil, we aren't going to get the funds.

The GOP is just showing how desperate they are to paint the President as incompetent by making statements like this. I ask Santorum and Romney... Since you're so concerned about family values, didn't your parents ever tell you to apologize when you did something wrong? Even if it was an accident?

Mine sure did. 'Nuff said.

[Roy Karrde]

Romney seems to agree with Santorum here. Big surprise.

Come to think of it, apologizing is something that Republicans seem to be loath to do. I certainly never heard the words "I'm sorry" come out of Bush's mouth. Limbaugh apologized once in his career, i believe. Every other time he said something that turned out to be a boldfaced lie, he made excuses.

You don't remember Abu Gharab?

Obama has to apologize. We need the support of the government of Afghanistan. Because the GOP doesn't want to raise taxes, we lack the funds to fight the Taliban by ourselves. And unless we discover a cave full of pirates' treasure somewhere on US soil, we aren't going to get the funds.

The hell? You honestly think the Afghanistan Government is helping pay for this war?

The GOP is just showing how desperate they are to paint the President as incompetent by making statements like this. I ask Santorum and Romney... Since you're so concerned about family values, didn't your parents ever tell you to apologize when you did something wrong? Even if it was an accident?

Mine sure did. 'Nuff said.

So umm... when will the Afghanistani's be apologizing for all the troops their own people are killing in response?

You're right, he should have said 'Fuck you and your book of spells', that would've been much better

Which, although you weren't implying he SHOULD say that instead of apologising, the Afghan people would have taken the absence of an apology as such. The USA has alienated nearly every nation on the planet in the last 10 years with its rather careless attitude to the sentiments and feelings of other cultures, any President would do well to at least pretend they care about it and to start repairing the wounds.

I agree it is a damned if you do, damned if you don't approach, I just wonder if not apologizing may have helped take out much of the legitimacy of this and allowed it to blow over. Because apparently now after the apology the backlash has become even larger, in Libya for example after it was heard Obama apologized they went and desecrated the grave site of thousands of British troops.

[Dark Sage]

I am not saying for one minute that the riots and the murder of American troops was justified. The Taliban has clearly used this incident as a propaganda device, as terrorists often do.

But not apologizing would have been the equivalent of him saying "screw you" and would have made it worse. It would have also lowered the chances of the Afghan government helping to quell this violence and punish the two murders to almost nonexistent.

[Heald]

I agree it is a damned if you do, damned if you don't approach, I just wonder if not apologizing may have helped take out much of the legitimacy of this and allowed it to blow over. Because apparently now after the apology the backlash has become even larger, in Libya for example after it was heard Obama apologized they went and desecrated the grave site of thousands of British troops.

I don't really see how the events are linked, no news source I can find, reputable or otherwise, seems to be linking the apology and further violence, only the continuing violence amidst an apology.

There is form on this as well. Bush's White House apologises after a soldier shot their books of spells. It's not like this is completely unheard of for a US president to do, considering how rare instances are (or at least how rare they are to be reported, I can image dozens of similar incidents that don't see the light of day).

[Dark Sage]

New polls are out.

http://www.politico.com/polls/politi...ound-poll.html

I suggest everyone read the entire article.

I'm certain that Roy will post soon, saying that these polls are screwed or inaccurate. I'm not even going to argue with him when he does.

[Roy Karrde]

Nah considering that is one poll out of three that shows Obama ahead, USA Today has Obama losing swing states, as does Rasmussen. Making the Politico one the outlier of the group. But hey, any poll showing any candidate up or down, is absurd right now as the Republicans still have not chosen a nominee, and neither have really debated or gotten into it yet.

[Dark Sage]

Uh, Roy?

The two polls you posted have Obama trailing by an average of two percentage points behind Romney in individual states, and an average of five behind Santorum (who is about as electable as a tree stump at this point). The poll I posted has Obama leading them both by double digit numbers in a nationwide poll.

I rest my case.

[Dark Sage]

In other news...

Romney is the probable winner in Arizona tonight, and is leading in Michigan.

The biggest surprise is, Santorum is starting to lose the support of Catholic voters, if the exit polls are any indication. He appears to have gotten only 30% of the Catholic vote this time.

[Dark Sage]

What follows is an editorial opinion. Opposing viewpoints are welcome.

This thread has been rather quiet lately. Maybe it’s because of the disgrace that the GOP has become.

Due to Rush Limbaugh’s chauvinistic… No, check that, misogynistic statements that he refuses to recant, the Republican candidates have practically lost the edge they had against Obama on the contraception issue. Santorum can argue until he’s blue in the face that the issue is about religion, but the only women voters who he’ll draw to his side because of it are nuns. Maybe.

And the way Santorum and Romney’s enmity (calling a “rivalry” at this point doesn’t seem to fit) keeps getting dirtier, you’d think their names were Hatfield and McCoy. I have seen such an immature political fight in my lifetime.

When a Republican these days opens his mouth, I hear stupidity. Then Obama speaks, and I hear logical talk explaining why what the Republicans say is stupid. All the people who eight months ago were chanting “Anyone but Obama in 2012!”… Golly, I wonder where those guys are? I haven’t heard from them in a long time.

What's my point? Obama hardly needs to do anything to win re-election. His opponents are doing a good job of making sure of that for him.

That’s my two cents.

[Roy Karrde]

What follows is an editorial opinion. Opposing viewpoints are welcome.

This thread has been rather quiet lately. Maybe it’s because of the disgrace that the GOP has become.

Or you know its because you keep losing debates and running away.

Due to Rush Limbaugh’s chauvinistic… No, check that, misogynistic statements that he refuses to recant, the Republican candidates have practically lost the edge they had against Obama on the contraception issue. Santorum can argue until he’s blue in the face that the issue is about religion, but the only women voters who he’ll draw to his side because of it are nuns. Maybe.

Except it is still about religion, Rush Limbaugh is a shock jock, a talk show host that throws out things to get ratings. And really what he said was pretty tame comparatively to what has been said about this woman by other radio show hosts. That being said it does not take away the underlying issue, and that is Obama violated the Separation of Church and State.

And the way Santorum and Romney’s enmity (calling a “rivalry” at this point doesn’t seem to fit) keeps getting dirtier, you’d think their names were Hatfield and McCoy. I have seen such an immature political fight in my lifetime.

Missed the Clinton/Obama fighting didnt cha? Because if you say you have not seen such immature political fighting in your life time then you really must have had a blind eye in 2008.

When a Republican these days opens his mouth, I hear stupidity. Then Obama speaks, and I hear logical talk explaining why what the Republicans say is stupid. All the people who eight months ago were chanting “Anyone but Obama in 2012!”… Golly, I wonder where those guys are? I haven’t heard from them in a long time.

What's my point? Obama hardly needs to do anything to win re-election. His opponents are doing a good job of making sure of that for him.

That’s my two cents.

Please, have Obama do nothing for 2012, by your logic McCain should have coasted to a victory. Now I realize Obama has been a miserable cluster fuck, and he really doesn't have anything to run on, so please let him set back. He will be out on his ass before he knows it.

[Dark Sage]

I'll give an example of what I'm talking about. This happened just today.

Obama was holding a fundraiser in New York. A heckler (who did not have the floor, and was completely out of line) shouted, "Use your leadership! No war with Iran!"

That was the stupidy spouted by the GOP.

Here was the President's reply to her, which showed how stupid it was.

"Nobody's announced a war, young lady, but we appreciate your sentiment. You're jumping the gun a little bit there."

He by all rights should have had security show her out. But he proved he was the bigger man, and the smarter one.

[Dark Sage]

Maybe it is. Still, talking about sex isn't as taboo as it used to be. I point to the success of Sex in the City as one example.

[Heald]

Maybe it is. Still, talking about sex isn't as taboo as it used to be. I point to the success of Sex in the City as one example.

Sex in the City talks about 3 whores and a donkey having sex, which isn't the same thing as talking about sex.

[Dark Sage]

Here's something to think about...

About a third of the voters at the exit polls in Ohio (a state that the GOP must win in November in order to win the White House, if history is any indication) said that they believe abortion should be legal.

If that's not a bad sign for the GOP, I don't know what is.