2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Roy Karrde]

yes, russia thinks this position is advantageous. why is it impossible that obama also thinks this position is advantageous?

Oh I have no doubt Obama thinks this position is advantageous, it allows him to take a problem off the table, while doing away with a missile shield that is not front of mind for the American people, and avoid the political fall out.

being able to debate an issue such as this in 2014 will be useful for the legitimacy of rule - the actual expansion under obama remains, the ongoing objection of russia remains. neither party has an absolute ground on which an opposition could take hold. if you hold an advantageous domestic position, being able to maintain such a position for the next election cycle is helpful (as in the united states). "russia getting everything it wants" is not actually what russian political operators want; authoritarian elite power only makes sense with an us-versus-them mindset. this is a mindset of the cold war, and it remains in the populace (for now), and thus the ability for continued saber-rattling in the future benefits the maintenance of power (as in russia).

Oh Russia can still contain the us versus them mentality, only now it is "We were able to bring down the great America to our demands" something that will go over very well with the populous. And I will remind you that Obama offering to give more flexibility in this situation actually ceeds ground to Russia.

this is not nearly as certain as you suggest. as with the threat against the russian elite, nothing is absolutely safe from revolution, but the threat of military action remains contained.

Iran has shown previously they will brutally crack down on even the slightest whiff of a protest against them, the possibility of a actual revolution any time soon is fairly unlikely. Not to mention a actual revolution taking place in Iran may be even more dangerous, as they could try to instigate the U.S. or Israel into attacking, or attack a country in a type of "Wag the Dog" scenario to gain patriotic support back at home.

this is not what "invade at the drop of a hat" means. it is the opposite. it is gradual development towards invasion.

Except there was no real gradual development, you can have skirmishes back and forth, but Russia decided that it was time to put the hammer down on Georgia, this wasn't something that was a slow build up for years. It went from small skirmishes to outright invasion in nearly the blink of a eye.