2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Dark Sage]

Back to the Prsidential Election.

New today, three polls taken by Quinnipiac University in three critical swing states show good news for Mr. Obama.

In Florida, Obama tops Mitt Romney 49 percent to 42 percent; while beating Rick Santorum 50 percent to 37 percent.

In Ohio, Obama beats Romney 47 to 41 percent and Santorum 47 to 40 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Obama edges Romney 45 to 42 percent, while topping Santorum 48 to 41 percent.

Also, another poll taken by the Washington Post and ABC has more bad news for Romney. It basically says that, well, people just don't like him.

In the new poll, 50 percent of all adults and 52 percent of registered voters express unfavorable opinions of Romney, both higher -- although marginally -- than Obama has received in Post-ABC polling as far back as late 2006. However, the biggest difference between Romney and Obama is on the other side of the ledger: 53 percent of Americans hold favorable views of the president; for Romney, that number slides to 34 percent.

Edit: Getting back to the matter of the Supreme Court's decision. Here's something to think about:

Obama might win politically if the Court finds the Affordable Health Care Act unconstitutional. Democrats will blame it on conservatives in Supreme Court, and will work harder to re-elect Obama to prevent more conservative Justices from being appointed.

And Congress makes the laws, they passed the ACA after butchering it. The Court will say Congress abridged its power by passing the ACA, not Obama. So Republicans will gain nothing in the Presidential contest.

In fact, the GOP had a potential winning issue campaigning against the individual mandate. It would have been hard on Obama with Romney as his opponent, using it against him, but if it goes away, the GOP will have almost nothing.

[Roy Karrde]

Back to the Prsidential Election.

New today, three polls taken by Quinnipiac University in three critical swing states show good news for Mr. Obama.

In Florida, Obama tops Mitt Romney 49 percent to 42 percent; while beating Rick Santorum 50 percent to 37 percent.

In Ohio, Obama beats Romney 47 to 41 percent and Santorum 47 to 40 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Obama edges Romney 45 to 42 percent, while topping Santorum 48 to 41 percent.

Also, another poll taken by the Washington Post and ABC has more bad news for Romney. It basically says that, well, people just don't like him.

Thank you for showing why the ABC Washington Post poll is absolutely invalid. First lets look at the QPac poll, specifically Florida.

Obama tops Mitt Romney 49 percent to 42 percent

Now lets look at the partisan break down of that poll.

D/R/I is 33/29/33

That is a rather dramatic 4 point swing from the last election.

2010 it was 36/36/29

Infact it comes closer to mirroring the 2008 election when Obamamania was at it's highest.

2008 exit polls was 37/34/29,

Now any pollster will say it is ignorant to do head to head during the middle of a primary. But even worse it is insane to give the Democrat's such a partisan advantage with no reason to show for it. This is the reason ABC Washington Post needs to show their partisan break downs, with out it the polls are not worth the paper they are printed on.

Edit: Getting back to the matter of the Supreme Court's decision. Here's something to think about:

Obama might win politically if the Court finds the Affordable Health Care Act unconstitutional. Democrats will blame it on conservatives in Supreme Court, and will work harder to re-elect Obama to prevent more conservative Justices from being appointed.

Problem is that it takes Obama's biggest domestic triumph off the table, he can try to argue for more liberal justices, but that won't help him with independents who like the court as centrist as it is right now.

And Congress makes the laws, they passed the ACA after butchering it. The Court will say Congress abridged its power by passing the ACA, not Obama. So Republicans will gain nothing in the Presidential contest.

In fact, the GOP had a potential winning issue campaigning against the individual mandate. It would have been hard on Obama with Romney as his opponent, using it against him, but if it goes away, the GOP will have almost nothing.

Problem is that Obama pushed Congress heavily for this, a Democratic congress at that, and was seen trumping it up afterwards, the health care law will still be poison even if it is struck down on not. Difference is that if it is struck down, it makes Obama look like a idiot for signing a unconstitutional law while being a 'constitutional scholar". And lets not forget that this actually helps Romney, on a national level when ever Obamacare is brought up, Obama could say "I was just following your lead" if struck down, Romney's argument of it being a state's rights issue becomes much much stronger.

[Dark Sage]

Problem is that it takes Obama's biggest domestic triumph off the table.

His "biggest domestic triumph"? You GOPers call it his biggest failure.

And if fewer Republicans are being polled, Roy, maybe that means fewer Republicans are responding. Meaning that there are fewer Republicans who are actually going to vote.

[Roy Karrde]

His "biggest domestic triumph"? You GOPers call it his biggest failure.

No I believe the Stimulus was his biggest failure, but I am looking at it from the side of the Obama Campaign as to what they are going to push. He is rather limited in his domestic successes, and he really cannot claim the Stimulus was a success so he will need to rely on this.

Edit: BTW CNN is now calling this a "Plane Wreck"

CNN Senior Legal Analyst Jeff Toobin: “This still looks like a train wreck for the Obama Administration, and it may also be a plane wreck. This entire law is now in serious trouble. It also seems that the individual mandate is doomed. I mean, Anthony Kennedy spent much of this morning talking about if we strike down the individual mandate, how should we handle the rest of the law? Now, it is less clear that they are going to strike down the whole law. There does seem to be some controversy in the court about that. Certainly there are some members of the court, Antonin Scalia, Justice Alito, who want to strike down the entire law, but it seemed almost a foregone conclusion today that they were going to strike down the individual mandate, and the only question is does the whole law go out the window with it?”

[Dark Sage]

Roy, if those exact same polls had both shown Romney in the lead, would you have then said that they were accurate? Give me your honest opinion.

Remember, I said the exact same polls. But with different results, showing Romney in the lead.

[Roy Karrde]

Roy, if those exact same polls had both shown Romney in the lead, would you have then said that they were accurate? Give me your honest opinion.

Remember, I said the exact same polls. But with different results, showing Romney in the lead.

If the partisan break down had Republicans so far ahead, I would have dismissed it. And I already dismiss the Washington Post poll. However if brought up I would note that it spells trouble for Obama to be losing to Romney while the Republican field is split, but it is still early in the year and anything can happen. Because unless something massive happens that gives off a 'rally around the flag moment' I am really expecting Obama's approval rating to drop drastically this summer when gas prices skyrocket.

But lets go further, lets say it is 2012 and Romney is President, and Hillary and Obama are slugging it out, and those polls come out with the D/R/I switched, and Romney in the lead, and Obama having unfavorability ratings over 50%. Should we really be trusting them? Obama and Hillary are in a slug match right now, meaning the base is split for him in both polls, and that not only increases his unfavorables but decreases his polling among Republicans.

[Dark Sage]

First, Iasked a yes-no qustion, which you didn't answer.

Second, only a fool thinks that the Republican field is split. Santorum will never win the nomination.

Third, Obama is clearly not losing.

Now please answer the question. If the exact same poll showed Romney in the lead, would you call it authentic. It's a hypothetical question, yes, but it is easy to answer.