2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[kurai]

Are you honestly telling me that with all the environmental concerns in Canada, and all the trouble it would take to convince a native tribe to allow the pipeline through, that Harper wouldn't pay a political price? As you said, that is total gibberish

I would suggest China would be far less likely to allow refined Canadian oil to go to the global market, and more likely to stay within their own country as they grow a greater need for oil.

Yes, I don't think you understand the circumstances. The Harper government is currently immune to criticism outside the judicial arena. A majority federal government is able to do whatever it likes barring judicial restrictions. The notion that having to "convince a native tribe" is something which the federal government has a difficulty in doing is ridiculous - this is how the entire country has been developed over the last 150 years. That is how Canada was built.

Yes, if China's demand is met by refining Albertan crude, then the demand is met. This "helps oil prices" - China does not have infinite demand. If they are refining Canadian crude, this means that they are not demanding other refined sources on the global market (ie. they do not act in a bubble). You speak of allowing "refined Canadian oil to go to the global market" - but this makes no sense.

[Roy Karrde]

Yes, I don't think you understand the circumstances. The Harper government is currently immune to criticism outside the judicial arena. A majority federal government is able to do whatever it likes barring judicial restrictions. The notion that having to "convince a native tribe" is something which the federal government has a difficulty in doing is ridiculous - this is how the entire country has been developed over the last 150 years. That is how Canada was built.

So you are saying that Harper's Government does not have to go to the voters any time in the next ten years as that is how long it will take for the West Coast pipeline to be built.

Yes, if China's demand is met by refining Albertan crude, then the demand is met. This "helps oil prices" - China does not have infinite demand. If they are refining Canadian crude, this means that they are not demanding other refined sources on the global market (ie. they do not act in a bubble). You speak of allowing "refined Canadian oil to go to the global market" - but this makes no sense.

That is unless China's oil demand some how peeks and does not continue to suck more and more crude in.

[kurai]

So you are saying that Harper's Government does not have to go to the voters any time in the next ten years as that is how long it will take for the West Coast pipeline to be built.

That is unless China's oil demand some how peeks and does not continue to suck more and more crude in.

It will be too late to act by the time Harper has to face an election - and it would not matter in any case. You are projecting a ten year schedule, but the process will already be in motion by the time he has to face a campaign. And why would it be an electoral issue? Do you might suppose that an Aboriginal protest to modern infrastructure is a deciding issue in Canadian politics? It isn't. At the same time, profits and returns would be enjoyed by the Albertans for whom the project is a boon - and this is the same region where Harper's most solid support base lives.

Your second point is probably missing a word. The key is that any pipeline will be limited by physical capacity, and the current supply to the United States is already exceeding refinement capacity - this is why the price of Albertan crude is so cheap. Yes, the price of this crude will go up when a second export source is developed. It was going to go up after Keystone XL was developed - this is the whole motivation for TransCanada's proposal of the project. If you are specifically focusing on refined oil, you need to disabuse yourself of the notion that China is acting in a bubble: we are talking about a global market. Regardless of the ultimate source, rising Chinese demand would be met by increased prices on the market. There is no way to escape this - but providing an additional avenue for which Albertan supply can be sold to China acts only to temper the demand. Imagine the price increase if no such avenue existed.

[Roy Karrde]

It will be too late to act by the time Harper has to face an election - and it would not matter in any case. You are projecting a ten year schedule, but the process will already be in motion by the time he has to face a campaign. And why would it be an electoral issue? Do you might suppose that an Aboriginal protest to modern infrastructure is a deciding issue in Canadian politics? It isn't. At the same time, profits and returns would be enjoyed by the Albertans for whom the project is a boon - and this is the same region where Harper's most solid support base lives.

I believe that the protests from Environmentalists which reject the drilling of oil at all would play a pretty key part in ousting Harper's Government if they could. You seem to forget that the pipeline would go through much of Canada by then and would as such give the environmentalists a scare campaign of the pipeline bursting and creating massive ecological problems.

Your second point is probably missing a word. The key is that any pipeline will be limited by physical capacity, and the current supply to the United States is already exceeding refinement capacity - this is why the price of Albertan crude is so cheap. Yes, the price of this crude will go up when a second export source is developed. It was going to go up after Keystone XL was developed - this is the whole motivation for TransCanada's proposal of the project. If you are specifically focusing on refined oil, you need to disabuse yourself of the notion that China is acting in a bubble: we are talking about a global market. Regardless of the ultimate source, rising Chinese demand would be met by increased prices on the market. There is no way to escape this - but providing an additional avenue for which Albertan supply can be sold to China acts only to temper the demand. Imagine the price increase if no such avenue existed.

You seem to either be not understanding or misreading what I am saying. Granted it may temper some of China's demand, or it may not, we have no idea what China's demand will be in 2020. However the likelyhood of China placing extra oil on the market is far smaller than it is for the United States. As far as we know China could be in the mist of a recession by then, and could just store the oil for when the demand rises again instead of placing it on the market and allowing it to impact the global price of oil.

The fact is that by sending it to China the likelyhood that it will go onto the global market even by it's excess, to impact the price of oil, is remarkably low.

[kurai]

I believe that the protests from Environmentalists which reject the drilling of oil at all would play a pretty key part in ousting Harper's Government if they could. You seem to forget that the pipeline would go through much of Canada by then and would as such give the environmentalists a scare campaign of the pipeline bursting and creating massive ecological problems.

1) 'Environmentalists' do not form a significant political base in Canada; they are unable to secure more than a single federal election riding.
2) It does not go through much of Canada. It goes through a few provinces. The majority of Canada is therefore unconcerned.
3) There are already massive ecological problems caused by the oil sands. This has no effect on Canadian politics: since their expansion, the Conservative Party of Canada (ie. Harper's party, which supports such expansion) has only grown in electoral success. The other historically major federal party (LPC) were the ones overseeing such expansion before the CPC came to power and thus they can not complain either.

Canadian parties are not analogous to those in America. What you suggest is not actually a viable threat in Canadian politics - there is no environmental wing of another party to threaten Harper, and the organized environmentalist party itself is completely ineffective.

And why have we switched from Aboriginal political effects to environmentalism? It is of no consequence - neither have an effect on the federal election process.

You seem to either be not understanding or misreading what I am saying. Granted it may temper some of China's demand, or it may not, we have no idea what China's demand will be in 2020. However the likelyhood of China placing extra oil on the market is far smaller than it is for the United States. As far as we know China could be in the mist of a recession by then, and could just store the oil for when the demand rises again instead of placing it on the market and allowing it to impact the global price of oil.

The fact is that by sending it to China the likelyhood that it will go onto the global market even by it's excess, to impact the price of oil, is remarkably low.

The issue is not China "placing extra oil on the market". It is whether or not China is buying extra oil from the market. You propose a curious circumstance in which China purchases Albertan crude oil, and despite the profit available through refinement and resale/use, for some reason they decide to create a stockpile instead of reselling at a profit. You then suggest that this practice would not "impact the global price of oil".

It would. If China is stockpiling as a necessity of purchase quotas (of which none actually exist, but we can theoretically accept that they might) rather than using the product, its own demand is necessarily no longer at its peak. They want to refine it in order to use it: if they are no longer using it, they are not going to continue buying it at an inflated price unless they absolutely have to as a consequence of formal treaty.

This would then lead to another instance of oversupply, and thus the price of Albertan crude would again fall - exactly the circumstance we have now. It is a dynamic global market. Chinese action has an effect on prices, but so does Chinese inaction. Your proposed scenario has no bearing on market results.

[Roy Karrde]

1) 'Environmentalists' do not form a significant political base in Canada; they are unable to secure more than a single federal election riding.
2) It does not go through much of Canada. It goes through a few provinces. The majority of Canada is therefore unconcerned.
3) There are already massive ecological problems caused by the oil sands. This has no effect on Canadian politics: since their expansion, the Conservative Party of Canada (ie. Harper's party, which supports such expansion) has only grown in electoral success. The other historically major federal party (LPC) were the ones overseeing such expansion before the CPC came to power and thus they can not complain either.

Canadian parties are not analogous to those in America. What you suggest is not actually a viable threat in Canadian politics - there is no environmental wing of another party to threaten Harper, and the organized environmentalist party itself is completely ineffective.

And why have we switched from Aboriginal political effects to environmentalism? It is of no consequence - neither have an effect on the federal election process.

When I speak of Environmentalists I am talking about a political belief not a political party, if you honestly think this will not become a issue for those that wish to oppose Harper's policies and not rely on scare tactics of oil bursting through the pipeline then you are incredibly politically stupid.

Edit: One example would be British Columbia where opposition to the pipeline is growing more and more.
http://www.globaltvbc.com/half+of+bc...164/story.html