2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Roy Karrde]

Well today will probably be the last national poll before the election. With the Hurricane knocking out power in several swing states we won't see any new information beyond yesterday's.

[mr_pikachu]

Well today will probably be the last national poll before the election. With the Hurricane knocking out power in several swing states we won't see any new information beyond yesterday's.

If that's true, then that's really unfortunate timing. If Romney was going to make a move in Ohio, now would have been the time, and the latest Rasmussen poll indicated that he might have been doing just that -- or that he was the lucky winner of a statistical fluke. But if we won't get a clear picture until election day (or weeks later, if some of the polls have to go with paper ballots), then one side or the other is going to be very surprised by the Ohio outcome.

[Leon-IH]

If that's true, then that's really unfortunate timing. If Romney was going to make a move in Ohio, now would have been the time, and the latest Rasmussen poll indicated that he might have been doing just that -- or that he was the lucky winner of a statistical fluke. But if we won't get a clear picture until election day (or weeks later, if some of the polls have to go with paper ballots), then one side or the other is going to be very surprised by the Ohio outcome.

It's probably worth noting that Rasmussen has routinely had Romney doing better in Ohio than most other pollsters, Rasmussen has a slightly different methodology to a lot of other pollsters (and was somewhat Republican leaning relative to the actual outcome at the 2010 elections).

[Roy Karrde]

It's probably worth noting that Rasmussen has routinely had Romney doing better in Ohio than most other pollsters, Rasmussen has a slightly different methodology to a lot of other pollsters (and was somewhat Republican leaning relative to the actual outcome at the 2010 elections).

This I believe is the first time that Romney has lead in Ohio according to Rasmussen. If the conventional wisdom is right, and that Republicans in Ohio will outperform their national numbers as has happened in past elections. Then most of the other polls are really off.