2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[kurai]

News That No One Saw Coming:

House Republicans are sending a stark message to the White House: If President Barack Obama pushes for tax increases during the lame-duck session, it would ruin his chances for a productive second term.

Republicans aren’t conceding that Obama will win Tuesday, but they’re warning that allowing tax rates on high-income Americans to increase at the end of the year — as Obama and Hill Democrats have proposed — will set a bad tone that would complicate major deal making in the 113th Congress.

“Poisoning the well right out of the gate makes no sense if the goal is a productive second term,” said one senior House GOP leadership aide.

The warning shows that Republicans are in a defensive posture already regarding the impending negotiations over taxes and spending that loom during the lame duck. And they fear Obama would use his reelection to justify an upper income tax increase.

Senate Democrats, who are all but certain to keep control of the upper chamber, will force separate votes on retaining current tax rates for incomes below $250,000 while increasing rates for higher-income earners — “decoupling,” in Washington speak. Republicans privately have been talking about $1 million as a new tax threshold for the wealthy, but Democrats are cool to that.

Democrats plan to use the new revenue from a tax increase — nearly $1 trillion — toward blunting automatic domestic and Pentagon spending cuts that kick in on Jan. 2. Canceling the first year of defense cuts is a top priority for Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and House Republican leaders, as well as Defense Department officials.

“Same old story,” said David Krone, chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), characterizing the Republican position to POLITICO. “We haven’t even had the election yet and already the Republicans are drawing a line in the sand. It’s really sad to see.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories...#ixzz2BMuymy5x

[Roy Karrde]

News That No One Saw Coming:

Dude we are heading for Tax Armageddon come January ;~; Everyone grab ahold of some gold and bail out of the stock market!!!!111111111

Seriously they need to figure out something to do before the Bush Tax Cuts expire in January.

[kurai]

last gallup

[Roy Karrde]

Rasmussen has the same thing for their final poll

R: 49
O: 48

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

This is with a D+2 rating with likely voters so not out of the realm of possibility.

[Plantae]

Not that I consider Cracked to be a particularly reputable website, but here's some food for thought for all you election haters.

[Telume]

Not that I consider Cracked to be a particularly reputable website, but here's some food for thought for all you election haters.

*snaps fingers* DAMN, beat me to it. Oh well, I concur with the Kingdom of Plants above. This means that: No Roy, Obama is not as much of a liar as you think he is.

[Roy Karrde]

*snaps fingers* DAMN, beat me to it. Oh well, I concur with the Kingdom of Plants above. This means that: No Roy, Obama is not as much of a liar as you think he is.

Umm why was I randomly thrown into this post?

[kurai]

final karl rove



probably confirmation of no PA swing

[Roy Karrde]

So how does Obama's campaign end? Playing... in a half full arena in Ohio.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...tadium-in-Ohio

I am getting flashbacks of John McCain here..

[kurai]

[mr_pikachu]

So how does Obama's campaign end? Playing... in a half full arena in Ohio.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...tadium-in-Ohio

I am getting flashbacks of John McCain here..

Perhaps, although I'm also sensing some trouble from the Romney camp. The reach for Pennsylvania in the closing days was way too reminiscent of McCain's desperation for my liking. Some people are arguing that he was actually just trying to push Obama even harder, to keep the election from even being close, but if you take kurai's quote referencing the next session of Congress into account, his position starts to look very shaky.

Maybe I'm reading too much into those items, but at this incredibly late stage, it does make me wonder whether the window's closing on Romney. I suppose we'll see very soon.

[Roy Karrde]

Perhaps, although I'm also sensing some trouble from the Romney camp. The reach for Pennsylvania in the closing days was way too reminiscent of McCain's desperation for my liking. Some people are arguing that he was actually just trying to push Obama even harder, to keep the election from even being close, but if you take kurai's quote referencing the next session of Congress into account, his position starts to look very shaky.

Maybe I'm reading too much into those items, but at this incredibly late stage, it does make me wonder whether the window's closing on Romney. I suppose we'll see very soon.

I think you are reading into it too much. McCain went after Pennsylvania as it was a last minute effort to try to win by going after a hard to reach state. Romney on the other hand saw polls moving that way in the state after the first debate, saw Obama was not campaigning hard there, and decided to dump some of their extra cash into the market.

Its pretty much the difference between desperation and opportunism.

[Magmar]

I'm so glad this will be over tomorrow night <3 we can't know who wins until the people speak!! Everyone please vote if you can! Everything else is just projection and gossip.

[DarkestLight]

>.> I'm moving to where Chibz lives :/ Until America gets its crap together. Sick of politics.

Oh and uhhh Montana is gonna be blue, gaiz. Its kinda wargroundish here right now :/

[Roy Karrde]

>.> I'm moving to where Chibz lives :/ Until America gets its crap together. Sick of politics.

Oh and uhhh Montana is gonna be blue, gaiz. Its kinda wargroundish here right now :/

Umm Romney is up by 10 there today according to Rasmussen.

[kurai]

the billions available this cycle messed up the idea of a battleground state

e.g. pennsylvania was not an honest attempt but rather a dumping of money into the only available ad market with open space

given the earlier margins for obama in PA, it would have made no sense to invest in ad buys, charter reservations, etc. far ahead of time; all this stuff had to be done well in advance in ohio proper. money alone fails to create more airtime, but given infinite dollars, you might as well invest in the small cross-over available in the PA media-market.

within a couple cycles, campaigns should be well funded enough for total ad penetration of all media markets simultaneously.

so you can look forward to that

[kurai]

FiveThirtyEight - Forecast



RealClearPolitics - General Election: Romney vs. Obama



Intrade - 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)



Votamatic



electoral-vote.com [no change]



Talking Points Memo - Electoral Scoreboard [no change]



Huffington Post - Electoral Map



Karl Rove



UnSkewed Polls - Unskewed Projection



Princeton Election Consortium - Electoral College Map [no change]



Washington Dispatch - Electoral College Count [no change]

[kurai]

my personal feeling is something like



basically the most conservative outcome i can envision, based on:

- most of the 'swing states' never really polled as swing states
- colorado is a guess at best: power of the choom gang should overcome
- new hampshire is also pretty unpredictable, but thin current margins remain on the side of wider margins in the past
- i don't really trust late polling that indicates a surge or flip, as we are seeing in VA (and FL, sort of); let them break to the challenger
- ohio, the kingmaker, trends much more consistently for obama

also, the only acceptable popular vote outcome is 53 Obama/47 Romney

[RedStarWarrior]

I'm so glad this will be over tomorrow night <3 we can't know who wins until the people speak!! Everyone please vote if you can! Everything else is just projection and gossip.

Other countries are the same or worse when it comes to politics.

[Dark Sage]

I just cast my ballot. It was an experience.

I had to wait in line for 90 minutes. The place was a zoo. Crowded as hell. Even with eight lines, it took a long time.

And when I left, the line outside was even longer than it was when I came in, practically around the block.

Now, given that this is a blue state where it wouldn't really hurt Obama if some Democrats had gotten out and gone home -and I didn't see anyone at all do that - I'm beginning to thing that the GOP's claim of lack of enthusiasm were wishful thinking.

I also heard that there were about 300 people waiting in line at a polling place in Milwaukee when it opened, despite bad weather in Wisconsin.

Voters in Florida waited six hours for polls to open. According to Florida Sec. of State Ken Detzner, a woman broke her leg in an accident outside an Escambia County polling place. It didn't stop her; she was carried inside by her husband to vote.

This is going to a long day... I can tell...

[Roy Karrde]

Now, given that this is a blue state where it wouldn't really hurt Obama if some Democrats had gotten out and gone home -and I didn't see anyone at all do that - I'm beginning to thing that the GOP's claim of lack of enthusiasm were wishful thinking.

I wouldn't be so sure, this is from Hotline's Josh Kraushaar

Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/0...-early-voting/

Also if Wisconsin has huge lines, that could very well spell good news for the Romney Campaign, as the GOTV effort created in the recall election of Scott Walker is in full swing today.

[kurai]

elections?



too easy

OR IS IT?

[Dark Sage]

Don't believe Faux Noise's lies. From what the actual police know, the incident with the New Black Panthers involved one unarmed member. And from what we saw, all he was doing was holding the door open for an old woman. Hardly a menace to society there.

Besides, the New Black Panthers are wanna-bes. All former members of the original Black Panthers that remain disavow any relation to the new group and condemn their actions, saying that they do not represent their current or past political ideas in the least.

[Roy Karrde]

Don't believe Faux Noise's lies. From what the actual police know, the incident with the New Black Panthers involved one unarmed member. And from what we saw, all he was doing was holding the door open for an old woman. Hardly a menace to society there.

Besides, the New Black Panthers are wanna-bes. All former members of the original Black Panthers that remain disavow any relation to the new group and condemn their actions, saying that they do not represent their current or past political ideas in the least.

So if a KKK member was standing infront of the voting center in full white hooded garb, and was opening the doors for people, you would not find that threatening?

[Dark Sage]

So if a KKK member was standing infront of the voting center in full white hooded garb, and was opening the doors for people, you would not find that threatening?

Yes I would Roy, because the KKK is a notoroius hate group that has been around for over a hundred years.

These guys are almost laughable. And like I said, this is a single member, not a group effort.

[Roy Karrde]

Yes I would Roy, because the KKK is a notoroius hate group that has been around for over a hundred years.

These guys are almost laughable. And like I said, this is a single member, not a group effort.

"The New Black Panther Party is a virulently racist and anti-Semitic organization whose leaders have encouraged violence against whites, Jews and law enforcement officers. Founded in Dallas, the group today is especially active on the East Coast, from Boston to Jacksonville, Fla. The group portrays itself as a militant, modern-day expression of the black power movement "

http://www.splcenter.org/get-informe...-panther-party

And it does not matter if it is a single member or a group, I merely said if a KKK member in full garb was standing there.

[Dark Sage]

"The New Black Panther Party is a virulently racist and anti-Semitic organization whose leaders have encouraged violence against whites, Jews and law enforcement officers. Founded in Dallas, the group today is especially active on the East Coast, from Boston to Jacksonville, Fla. The group portrays itself as a militant, modern-day expression of the black power movement "

True. They are a hate group.

But they just aren't a successful one.

[Roy Karrde]

True. They are a hate group.

But they just aren't a successful one.

That doesn't matter, the mere presence of a hate group outside of a polling place is threatening no matter if they are a White Hate Group or Black one.

[Dark Sage]

News out of Ohio:

WASHINGTON -- An election eve poll conducted for the AFL-CIO found that 70 percent of unionized workers in Ohio were voting for Obama, as opposed to 21 percent for Romney.

Among early voters, the numbers were even starker: 79 percent for Obama, 21 for Romney, for a margin of 58 points.

The poll was conducted by Hart Research, a firm that tends to poll for progressive and labor groups. The poll's sampling included 408 union workers, 138 of whom had already cast their ballots.

If he does take Ohio, Obama will owe much of his success there to organized labor. The AFL-CIO, the largest federation of labor unions, has expended much of its resources in the crucial swing state, which has a high quotient of unionized workers compared to other regions of the country. Richard Trumka, the AFL-CIO's president and a former coal miner, spent much of the past week stumping for the president in Ohio.

According to Hart, Obama's support among union voters in Ohio has risen by 5 percentage points since 2008. Some of that is no doubt due to the passions surrounding SB 5, the controversial Ohio measure that nearly stripped many of the state's public-sector workers of their collective bargaining rights. Although the law was passed, it was overturned by voters last year.

Other nuggets from the Hart poll:

* The union workers supported Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over challenger Josh Mandel (R) by a measure of 70 percent to 29.

* Two thirds of those polled said they support public funding to prevent public-sector layoffs.

* More than 62 percent of those polled said Romney's support of SB 5 made them less likely to cast a ballot for him.

[Heald]

I'm going to bed in an hour. I expect to wake up to see Obama has been re-elected according to exit polls or whatever.

Not a single reputable news source is saying anything other than either it's a dead-heat with Obama just slightly edging ahead, or that Obama is very likely to win. Romney's odds are now worse than 4 to 1. I placed a bet earlier that Obama would win and although I'm not gonna win much I'll hopefully be a little richer by the end of tomorrow. If Romney ends up stealing this then fair play to him.

[Asilynne]

I just got back from voting :3

[Dark Sage]

News from Virginia.

According to their Board of Elections, voter turnout is bigger than it was in 2008.

Who will benefit from this? It remains to be seen.

[Roy Karrde]

News from Virginia.

According to their Board of Elections, voter turnout is bigger than it was in 2008.

Who will benefit from this? It remains to be seen.

Southwestern Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania are reportedly seeing big turnout for Romney.

Remember Obama's main strategy was to cannibalize his most loyal voter base by having them vote early. Having heavy turnout today would seem to benefit Romney if most of Obama's big supporters voted early.

Edit: In Staunton’s Ward 4 in 2008, 1450 people voted. As of 1:30 p.m. today , 1223 people had voted. McCain won this precinct 54.8 – 44.3.

By noon 972 votes had been cast in Elmont’s precinct 704 in Hanover County. In 2008, there were 1422 total votes cast in the precinct, which McCain won 68-30 in 2008.

In Democratic stronghold Charlottesville at 1 p.m., turnout was 36 percent of registered voters. Obama got 80 percent of the vote there in 2008.

In Democratic stronghold Martinsville at noon, turnout was out 34 percent of registered voters. Obama got 65 percent of the vote there in 2008.

Yancey Precinct In Augusta County has seen 1474 people vote as of 1 p.m., that’s 48 percent of the precinct’s registered voters. John McCain won Yancey Precinct 68 to 30 percent.

Bluefield media market and Withville we’re seeing 2 hour wait lines – this is coal country in VA. These are Romney voters.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...ing-rich-lowry

[Dark Sage]

Here's the first set of exit polls - this by a GOP research team.

http://www.businessinsider.com/repor...-polls-2012-11

[Asilynne]

Here's the first set of exit polls - this by a GOP research team.

http://www.businessinsider.com/repor...-polls-2012-11

"Of course, Goddard cautions: "Probably best to ignore them."

Probably a good idea Goddard Can't wait til we get some real updates.

[Dark Sage]

First confirmed state of the night: Vermont. It has gone to Mr. Obama.

267 to go.

Edit: As of right now, things look good for Mr. Obama. His opening lead in Ohio is rather large, and strangely enough, he's winning in North Carolina too.

Also, the GOP's prospects of taking the Senate look kind of dim right now. Bill Nelson is the projected winner in Florida, Kirsten Gillibrand in Vermont, and Angus King in Maine. Also, Mourdock is losing in Indiana, which should come as no surprise, and McMahon is getting her ass kicked in Connecticut. Elizabeth Warren is winning in Massechusetts too.

[kurai]

florida 51% report, +1% romney
new hampshire 4% report, +31% obama
ohio 20% report, +19% obama
virginia 22% report, +15% romney

[kurai]

florida 69% report, +1% obama
nh 9% report, +21% obama
ohio 25% report, +13% obama
virginia 37% report, +9% romney

[Dark Sage]

Something else that's no surprise. Akin is losing.

[kurai]

florida 78% report, tie
nh 13% report, O+13
ohio 31% report, O+9
virginia 42% report, R+9
colorado 17% report, O+10