Are women pulling away from the GOP? Let's see what we can find in some general election gender cross-tabs.
Code:
CNN/ORC (2/10 - 2/13) -
Obama Gingrich
M 50 47
F 66 31
Obama Paul
M 46 52
F 58 38
Obama Romney
M 44 53
F 61 36
Obama Santorum
M 52 47
F 60 36
PPP (2/9 - 2/12) -
Obama Gingrich
M 49 42
F 55 39
Obama Paul
M 44 46
F 53 36
Obama Romney
M 46 43
F 53 41
Obama Santorum
M 46 48
F 53 40
Pew Research (2/8 - 2/12) -
Obama Romney
M 45 50
F 59 38
Obama Santorum
M 46 49
F 59 38
PPP (1/13 - 1/16) -
Obama Gingrich
M 43 49
F 36 49
Obama Paul
M 41 50
F 52 34
Obama Romney
M 43 49
F 53 40
Obama Santorum
M 43 47
F 55 37
CNN/ORC (1/11 - 1/12) -
Obama Gingrich
M 49 43
F 58 40
Obama Paul
M 44 49
F 56 40
Obama Romney
M 45 49
F 53 45
Obama Santorum
M 50 43
F 57 42
I will say there is a really obvious gender gap between Obama and every Republican nominee. Over time, it seems fairly clear that this gap is widening in per-candidate polls.
If we compare to McCain 2008 exit polls as a starting ballot, we find:
Code:
Obama McCain
M 49 48
F 56 43
So we find a fairly dramatic divide between this result and the most recent Gingrich polling data. If the Romney/Santorum trend of fading support continues, there will be a serious demographic problem for their election potential.