you are misreading the data

the -3.8 is not "in his first year", it is the net change over the previous year (ie. the losses in bush's final year, which is why the polling data above indicates the popular blame held for bush and the republicans)



but anyway, of course obama will campaign on the post-crisis recovery

yes, the talking point is an 'anemic recovery', but they are still using the word recovery - the next step is the transition into a characterization of coming back from bush's disaster

this is why it is not a particularly great idea for romney to focus on the issue of women's jobs - it is a demographic he does not have, and not an issue on which obama is particularly weak

assuming the recovery continues on a slow and steady incline approaching november, it is hardly an appropriate centerpiece for the campaign against obama