2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Leon-IH]

Well I could go in how that the economy was doing pretty well into around 1990 when a number of factors including the Gulf War slowed it down. Or the fact that Reagan actually lifted the economy after the steaming pile left by Jimmy Carter.

Reagan sent the bill to the next generation by tripling the debt, and his policies (which Bush Sr continued early in his term) created the 1990-1991 recession.

Or that Bush warned Congress repeatedly about the Subprime Crisis, only for Democrats to rebuff him multiple times.

The largest causes of the subprime crisis were CFMA -- which was passed by bipartisan effort, albeit primarily republican -- and the SEC deregulating the industry in 2004.

You realize that the Republicans got the House and the Senate midway through Clinton's first term, and that the only big policy that he really tried to get through before that to my memory was Hillarycare.

OBRA-93 was significant in terms of reducing the deficit.

It's funny you mention Hillarycare though, because the Republican proposal at the time was very similar to Obamacare.

Proof?

The vast majority of his veto's were overridden (even Republicans voted against him routinely late in his term), and if you look at the policies passed at that time and the one's he's campaigning on now -- night and day difference.

[Roy Karrde]

Reagan sent the bill to the next generation by tripling the debt, and his policies (which Bush Sr continued early in his term) created the 1990-1991 recession.

Want to provide proof that Reagan specifically created the Savings and Loan Crisis and the Oil Crisis from the Gulf War?

The largest causes of the subprime crisis were CFMA -- which was passed by bipartisan effort, albeit primarily republican -- and the SEC deregulating the industry in 2004.

You do realize that Bush and Republicans were pushing for MORE regulation in terms of Subprime loans in 2004 and in 2003 and in 2002, and upward until the bottom fell out in 2008, and were rebuffed at every turn by Democrats saying there was no housing bubble.

OBRA-93 was significant in terms of reducing the deficit.

Which would have meant nothing if the Republicans did not keep spending limits down in their budgets.

It's funny you mention Hillarycare though, because the Republican proposal at the time was very similar to Obamacare.

And that is relevant how?

The vast majority of his veto's were overridden (even Republicans voted against him routinely late in his term), and if you look at the policies passed at that time and the one's he's campaigning on now -- night and day difference.

Veto power is not the only power or influence a President has when it comes to crafting policy. As Mitt Romney has said repeatedly he sat down with Democrats weekly to work on crafting a agenda and policy that both sides could agree on. So I am still waiting for your proof that he was merely a rubber stamp.

[kurai]

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[mr_pikachu]

*scratches head*

Okay, so, I just want to point out something.

This was yesterday's UnSkewed Polls map:

UnSkewed Polls - Unskewed Projection [no change]

And here's the one from today:

UnSkewed Polls - Unskewed Projection

Discounting the safe/leaning weights, that's a 58-electorate swing. In 24 hours. I count Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all switching columns at once.

I'm not saying that the people at UnSkewed Polls necessarily have a bad system. But, really, what happened in the election to cause that kind of swing overnight? Barring a candidate's arrest or untimely death, that just seems... I don't know, unlikely? I guess it's just odd to observe a poll that's so unstable compared to the others, even given the wide variance in the others' "stable" projections.

On a side note, Roy, I'd also be interested to see Leon provide proof that Romney was a rubber stamp, if only because I don't think such proof is possible for any politician (with the possible exception of those in comas). I mean, you're right that there are other ways a government leader influences policy decisions, so with that in mind, I'm not sure how you can prove that any candidate didn't do any of those things. Pretty much any politician, Romney included, engages in meetings with others. Proving that said politician had no influence over policy throughout any of those meetings is... well, good luck.

Briefly, proving the nonexistence of something, including proving that a politician did absolutely nothing, is generally impossible, so demanding such isn't really reasonable. (While I personally disagree with the original claim that it was used to challenge -- and I really don't care to get into an argument over religion and philosophy here -- Russell's teapot is a useful analogy to this situation.)

[Roy Karrde]

Discounting the safe/leaning weights, that's a 58-electorate swing. In 24 hours. I count Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all switching columns at once.

I'm not saying that the people at UnSkewed Polls necessarily have a bad system. But, really, what happened in the election to cause that kind of swing overnight? Barring a candidate's arrest or untimely death, that just seems... I don't know, unlikely? I guess it's just odd to observe a poll that's so unstable compared to the others, even given the wide variance in the others' "stable" projections.

One poll seems to be with out leaners and just presupposing that the politician will gain every state that leans their way, the other doesn't.

[kurai]

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[Roy Karrde]

Well today will probably be the last national poll before the election. With the Hurricane knocking out power in several swing states we won't see any new information beyond yesterday's.

[mr_pikachu]

Well today will probably be the last national poll before the election. With the Hurricane knocking out power in several swing states we won't see any new information beyond yesterday's.

If that's true, then that's really unfortunate timing. If Romney was going to make a move in Ohio, now would have been the time, and the latest Rasmussen poll indicated that he might have been doing just that -- or that he was the lucky winner of a statistical fluke. But if we won't get a clear picture until election day (or weeks later, if some of the polls have to go with paper ballots), then one side or the other is going to be very surprised by the Ohio outcome.

[Leon-IH]

If that's true, then that's really unfortunate timing. If Romney was going to make a move in Ohio, now would have been the time, and the latest Rasmussen poll indicated that he might have been doing just that -- or that he was the lucky winner of a statistical fluke. But if we won't get a clear picture until election day (or weeks later, if some of the polls have to go with paper ballots), then one side or the other is going to be very surprised by the Ohio outcome.

It's probably worth noting that Rasmussen has routinely had Romney doing better in Ohio than most other pollsters, Rasmussen has a slightly different methodology to a lot of other pollsters (and was somewhat Republican leaning relative to the actual outcome at the 2010 elections).

[Roy Karrde]

It's probably worth noting that Rasmussen has routinely had Romney doing better in Ohio than most other pollsters, Rasmussen has a slightly different methodology to a lot of other pollsters (and was somewhat Republican leaning relative to the actual outcome at the 2010 elections).

This I believe is the first time that Romney has lead in Ohio according to Rasmussen. If the conventional wisdom is right, and that Republicans in Ohio will outperform their national numbers as has happened in past elections. Then most of the other polls are really off.

[kurai]

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[kurai]

Our new Halloween poll finds that 62% of voters have a favorable opinion of Halloween. 26% of voters say they’ll be dressing up for Halloween this year. More Democrats (33%) than Republicans (23%) say they’ll be donning costumes this year, but among those more Republicans (95%) than Democrats (80%) said they had decided on their costume at the time they were polled.

Chocolate bars were overwhelmingly the most favorite type of Halloween candy, with 62% of voters choosing them and 11% picking candy corn, 7% for fruit-flavored candies and 6% opting for candy apples. 36% of voters wish they could still go trick-or treating.

37% of voters believe in ghosts, and 26% say they’ve seen a ghost. By a 52-40 margin voters think it’s possible for a house to be haunted, and respondents are split 47-45 on whether they be willing to sleep in a “haunted house” with men saying they’d be willing to by a 56-38 margin but women declining 39-51. 29% of voters say zombies are the scariest monster, with vampires (15%) werewolves (12%) and “something else” (17%) all reaching double digits. Ghosts got 6%, mummies and witches 5% and Frankenstein 3%. If forced to turn into a monster 27% of voters would choose to be a vampire, 22% a witch, 12% a werewolf, 6% a zombie and 25% something else.

Voters either have very high or very low opinions of their ability to survive a zombie apocalypse – 27% say they’d survive less than a week but 32% say they’d survive more than a year with the rest somewhere in between.

36% of voters say black cats are good luck, 23% say bad luck, and 42% aren’t sure. Democrats say black cats are good luck by a 43-20 margin but Republicans are split 31-26.

45% of respondents said they enjoy horror movies, and responses were split among several horror movie franchises when asked which was the favorite, with Friday the 13th, the Halloween movies, Nightmare on Elm Street, Night of the Living Dead and Paranormal Activity franchises all cracking double digits among horror fans.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...l-results.html









god-fearing republicans, democrats seeking mindlessness and leeching from others; this poll truly has it all

[Dark Sage]

I'm 100% confident of my likelyhood to survive a zombie apocalypse, due to the fact that zombies don't exist.

Despite the fact that the military is wasting our tax dollars on a program that is training soldiers on how to handle a zombie apocalypse.

I swear to God, I am not lying. The military is actually doing that.

Your tax dollars at work.

And before Roy says anything, I have no idea what idiot approved it.

[DarkestLight]

:/ You say idiocy. I say "Axe heads on rake. Practice squats and sprints. Gotta get a lateral slice cleaner than the force used to execute it."

[Roy Karrde]

This could be something, the Daily Caller is reporting and with video, allegations that Senator Bob Menedez stiffed two hookers on how much he should pay them after a night of servicing. And by servicing I mean screwing.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/01/wo...ican-republic/

Right now he has a 14 point lead against his challenger, in the power loss state of New Jersey. So if this thing blows up, voters in New Jersey may be completely unaware of it. If he does vacate his seat as has happened in the past when it comes to sex scandals. It would be up to the Governor ( Chris Christie ) to appoint a new Senator.

Roy's Tip: ALWAYS PAY YOUR HOOKERS

[Dark Sage]

I would say that I trust the word of two prostitutes even less that of a Republican.

This doesn't even come close to the scandal with the Secret Service. The woman in that case wasn't afraid to give her name, and we had far more to go on than a 'he said, she said' deal.

Come on, Roy, this is low and you know it. I'm ashamed that you'd even consider that story as fact.

[Roy Karrde]

Come on, Roy, this is low and you know it. I'm ashamed that you'd even consider that story as fact.

Note what I said: "This could be something" and "So if this thing blows up"

I never said it was fact, merely saying it could be something that could blow up into a story.

[kurai]

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[Roy Karrde]

Some interesting things to point out.

AP: Near Majority of Likely Voters say Romney will fix partisan gridlock
http://news.yahoo.com/fix-political-...-election.html

Wa Post has Ohio move into the toss up category from "Leans Obama"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...electoral-map/

Here is the final swing state money buys

Ohio - $30M total: Romney $18.4M, Obama $11.4M
Florida - $22M total: Romney $13.7M, Obama $8.4M
Virginia - $19.7M total: Romney $13.4M, Obama $6.3M
Pennsylvania - $13.7M total: Romney $10.8M, Obama $2.9M
Wisconsin - $10.8M total: Romney $7.8M, Obama $3M
Iowa - $9.8M total: Romney $6.7M, Obama $3M
Colorado - $8.9M total: Romney $5.5M, Obama $3.3M
Nevada - $8.5M total: Romney $5.6M, Obama $2.9M
New Hampshire - $7.0M total: Romney $4.7M, Obama $2.3M
Michigan - $5.7M total: Romney $5.2M, Obama $500k
Minnesota - $2.7M total: Romney $2.1M, Obama $550k
North Carolina - $3.4M total: Romney $1.9M, Obama $1.4M
New Mexico - $225k total: Romney $225k (ROF), Obama $0
Maine (Bangor) - $70k total: Romney $70k (ROF), Obama $0

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2...1-billion?lite

[Roy Karrde]

Alot bigger news coming out on Benghazi today

It’s unlikely any outside military team could have arrived in Benghazi quickly enough to save Ambassador Chris Stevens or his colleague Sean Smith, both of whom died from smoke inhalation after a band of more than 100 men overran the U.S. mission at around 9:30 p.m. that evening and set the buildings inside ablaze.

But military backup may have made a difference at around five the following morning, when a second wave of attackers assaulted the CIA annex where embassy personnel had taken refuge. It was during this second wave of attacks that two ex-SEALs working for the CIA’s security teams—Glenn Dougherty and Tyrone Woods—were killed in a mortar strike…

“The State Department is responsible for assessing security at its diplomatic installations and for requesting support from other government agencies if they need it,” a senior U.S. Defense official said. “There was no request from the Department of State to intervene militarily on the night of the attack.”

The president, however, would have the final say as to whether or not to send in the military.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-benghazi.html

Here is what I think happened, the CIA teams reached the safe house, when they realized they were in trouble they radioed support ( As said in the Fox News article ). The CIA passed that along to the White House and State Department. Seeing the situation the White House/State believed it would be better if the Libyan militia handle it, instead of having U.S. troops on the ground engaging in what could be a prolonged battle. So they did not call in support, and instead went with the militia route, which was unable or unwilling to get there in time.

This really is the only scenario I can see having played out after getting this information.

[shazza]

The Economist endorses Obama!

[Telume]

Cracked offers proof that Obama is likely to win: http://www.cracked.com/article_20139...-election.html

[Roy Karrde]

Cracked offers proof that Obama is likely to win: http://www.cracked.com/article_20139...-election.html

Guess it will all come down to Carolina at Washington this week. The fate of a nation resting on two crappy teams.

[kurai]

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[kurai]

some notable state-level polling analysis:

A relatively small number of survey firms have conducted a majority of the state polls, and therefore have a larger influence on the trends and forecasts generated by my model. Nobody disputes that there have been evident, systematic differences in the results of these major firms: some leaning more pro-Romney, others leaning more pro-Obama. As I said at the outset, we’ll know on Election Day who’s right and wrong.

But here’s a simple test. There have been hundreds of smaller organizations who have released fewer than a half-dozen polls each. Most have only released a single poll. We can’t reliably estimate the house effects for all of these firms individually. However, we can probably safely assume that in aggregate they aren’t all ideologically in sync – so that whatever biases they have will all cancel out when pooled together. We can then compare the overall error distribution of the smaller firms’ surveys to the error distributions of the larger firms’ surveys. (The survey error is simply the difference between the proportion supporting Obama in a poll, and my model’s estimate of the “true” proportion on that state and day.)

If the smaller firms’ errors are distributed around zero, then the left-leaning firms are probably actually left-leaning, and the right-leaning firms are probably actually right-leaning, and this means that they’ll safely cancel each other out in my results, too. On the other hand, if the smaller firms’ error distribution matches either the left-leaning or the right-leaning firms’ error distribution, then it’s more likely the case that those firms aren’t significantly biased after all, and it’s the other side’s polls that are missing the mark.

What do we find? This set of kernel density plots (smoothed histograms) shows the distribution of survey errors among the seven largest survey organizations, and in grey, the distribution of errors among the set of smaller firms. The smaller firms’ error distribution matches that of Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, YouGov, and PPP. The right-leaning firms – Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing, and ARG – are clearly set apart on the pro-Romney side of the plot.



If, on Election Day, the presidential polls by Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, YouGov, and PPP prove to be accurate, then the polls by Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing, and ARG will all have been underestimating Obama’s level of support by 1.5% consistently, throughout the campaign. Right now, assuming zero overall bias, Florida is 50-50. The share of Florida polls conducted by Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing, and ARG? 20%. Remove those polls from the dataset, and Obama’s standing improves.

[Leon-IH]

Well, apparently Romney is set to be campaigning in PA, MN and WI in the last few days.


As far as I can tell that has 3 possible meanings

1. Romney thinks Ohio or Virginia is a lost cause.

2. Romney thinks Ohio and Virginia are in the bag and wants to get a bigger majority.

3. Romney isn't certain either way on Ohio and Virginia but feels more campaigning there won't achieve anything.


Personally I think it's a bit sad that Romney (a man too weak to stand up to the looneys who think Obama is a Muslim) has a better shot of winning than McCain (who wasn't).

[shazza]

Well, apparently Romney is set to be campaigning in PA, MN and WI in the last few days.


As far as I can tell that has 3 possible meanings

1. Romney thinks Ohio or Virginia is a lost cause.

2. Romney thinks Ohio and Virginia are in the bag and wants to get a bigger majority.

3. Romney isn't certain either way on Ohio and Virginia but feels more campaigning there won't achieve anything.

How pervasive!

[Roy Karrde]

Well, apparently Romney is set to be campaigning in PA, MN and WI in the last few days.


As far as I can tell that has 3 possible meanings

1. Romney thinks Ohio or Virginia is a lost cause.

2. Romney thinks Ohio and Virginia are in the bag and wants to get a bigger majority.

3. Romney isn't certain either way on Ohio and Virginia but feels more campaigning there won't achieve anything.

Right now it is a mixture of 2 and 3 from what I am hearing. PA, MN, and especially WI are moving Romney's way, and forcing Obama to spend his last weekend defending reliably blue states.

Personally I think it's a bit sad that Romney (a man too weak to stand up to the looneys who think Obama is a Muslim) has a better shot of winning than McCain (who wasn't).

So Romney needs to rebut everything that a looney says? By that logic why hasn't Obama gone after all those magic underwear jokes and everything else his looneys have said about Romney and Mormonism? Or is the President just too weak to stand up to that?

[shazza]

So Romney needs to rebut everything that a looney says? By that logic why hasn't Obama gone after all those magic underwear jokes and everything else his looneys have said about Romney and Mormonism? Or is the President just too weak to stand up to that?

The key divergence between these two situations, and regardless how reasonable the claims are, is that Romney has been consistently characterised as a “looney” – by liberals, by the media, and regularly by his own doing. Surely it would be advantageous for Romney to overtly distance himself from these repeated accusations and potentially attenuate the mounting perception that he is a “looney”.

So, rather it being an indication of strength or weakness from either candidate (and such accusations by Democrats or Republicans alike are nonsensical party politics), it’s otherwise a case of prudence: for Romney, his character is undeniably intertwined with these claims - he is a "looney" - and thus to announce otherwise would be prudent; for Obama, however, his character is not associated with these claims, and for him to announce his distance would be merely announcing the obvious which would bring about bewildered reactions and ensuing skepticism.

[Leon-IH]

Right now it is a mixture of 2 and 3 from what I am hearing. PA, MN, and especially WI are moving Romney's way, and forcing Obama to spend his last weekend defending reliably blue states.

Given Ohio polling isn't exactly favourable for Romney it could be a mix of all 3.

PA has to be a worry for Obama given the voter id confusion there but campaigning or advertising there isn't necessarily going to help him (beyond some defensive ads which are apparently already running); it's going to come down to the ground operations of both parties there.

He has an 8pt lead in MN which is fairly tough to see Romney overtaking, WI could get close but even if Romney takes it he'd need to reverse his fortunes in IA or NH while taking the other close swing states (CO, FL, VA) -- assuming PA and OH don't move, which is unlikely but in the realms of possibility.

I'm amazed Romney hasn't spent some time in FL lately, the hurricane has helped Obama there and Clinton campaigning there can't have hurt him either.

So Romney needs to rebut everything that a looney says? By that logic why hasn't Obama gone after all those magic underwear jokes and everything else his looneys have said about Romney and Mormonism? Or is the President just too weak to stand up to that?

It's not so much rebut everything (though I'd note he won't even do it when it's right in front of him like McCain did somewhat famously), but he would be somewhat more respectable if he didn't shift positions based on the crowd he's standing in front of.

[Dark Sage]

I truly doubt that Romney is so naive to believe that Ohio and Virginia are in the bag.

The latest Rasmussen Reports (which historically favor the GOP) now say that both states, and the national polls, are even, which is a loss for Romney in those polls.

The Romney camp keeps saying that it is going to do better than McCain, and they may be right. However, in order to win this election, they have to do better than Obama.

[Roy Karrde]

I'm amazed Romney hasn't spent some time in FL lately, the hurricane has helped Obama there and Clinton campaigning there can't have hurt him either.

Romney is up 6 in Florida

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/0...-6-in-florida/

It's not so much rebut everything (though I'd note he won't even do it when it's right in front of him like McCain did somewhat famously), but he would be somewhat more respectable if he didn't shift positions based on the crowd he's standing in front of.

And in which crowd has Romney said Obama is a Muslim?

The key divergence between these two situations, and regardless how reasonable the claims are, is that Romney has been consistently characterised as a “looney” – by liberals, by the media, and regularly by his own doing. Surely it would be advantageous for Romney to overtly distance himself from these repeated accusations and potentially attenuate the mounting perception that he is a “looney”.

So, rather it being an indication of strength or weakness from either candidate (and such accusations by Democrats or Republicans alike are nonsensical party politics), it’s otherwise a case of prudence: for Romney, his character is undeniably intertwined with these claims - he is a "looney" - and thus to announce otherwise would be prudent; for Obama, however, his character is not associated with these claims, and for him to announce his distance would be merely announcing the obvious which would bring about bewildered reactions and ensuing skepticism.

You know what, Romney could go out and say Obama is the most Christian American to ever walk this Earth. And the left and the media would willingly go along with Romney being looney and out of touch. That was Obama's whole strategy for the summer. Meanwhile Biden goes around acting like a mouth breathing retard, and Obama runs a campaign in which Big Bird is the big October theme and the media doesn't touch it.

Just like I doubt they will touch the next big gaffe from Obama.



Saying "Voting is the best revenge" is going to kill him even further with independents, but it will be up to Romney to push the story. Much as he did at the rally last night in Ohio in which tens of thousands showed up.

[kurai]

although we can not see what the romney campaign's internal state-level polling looks like

the schedule for the final days may reveal something interesting about it:

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Portsmouth International Airport
42 Airline Ave., Newington, N.H.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
215 5th St., Marietta, Ohio

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Dubuque Regional Airport
11000 Airport Road, Dubuque, Iowa

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
517 Airport Drive, Middletown, Pa.

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Colorado Spring Municipal Airport
1575 Aviation Way, Colorado Springs, Colo.

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
5733 Huntsman Rd., Richmond, Va.

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Comfort Dental Amphitheatre
6350 Greenwood Plaza Blvd., Englewood, Colo.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
Oak Avenue and Park Street, Panama City, Fla.

Mitt Romney
Attending rally
233 Center St., Des Moines, Iowa

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
2000 Harrington Memorial Rd., Mansfield, Ohio

Mitt Romney
Attending rally with musician Rodney Atkins
6200 Riverside Drive, Cleveland, Ohio

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
2005 Cargo Rd., Minneapolis, Minn.

Mitt Romney
Attending rally
931 Stony Hill Road, Morrisville, Pa.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
500 Fairgrounds Drive, Castle Rock, Colo.

Mitt Romney
Attending rally
970 Airport Road, Lynchburg, Va.

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
655 S. Rock Blvd., Reno, Nev.

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Landmark Aviation
4130 E. 5th Ave., Columbus, Ohio

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
2842 S.E. Frontage Road., Johnstown, Colo.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
2800 McKinley Ave., Des Moines, Iowa

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
5480 S. Howell Ave., Milwaukee, Wis.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
1453 Youngstown Kingsville Road, Vienna, Ohio

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally with Kid Rock
555 Elm St., Manchester, N.H.

Ro: NH, IA, CO, CO, IA, OH, PA, VA, OH, NH
Ry: OH, PA, VA, FL, OH, MN, CO, NV, CO, IA, WI, OH

let's weight the topline at 1.5, vp at 1

OH: 6
CO: 5
IA: 4
NH: 3
PA: 2.5
VA: 2.5
FL: 1
MN: 1
WI: 1
NV: 1

they are visiting every toss-up state aside from NC, with special focus on ohio and colorado

in public polling:

- colorado is a close O+1, and its demographics make outright declarations of victory impossible.
- ohio is sitting at O+2.9, but internal polling could indicate differently. also, ohio is integral to most EV victory conditions.
- iowa is at O+2.
- new hampshire is at O+1.8, which is a pretty significant decline from 2008's O+9.6 win. perhaps they think they can snipe NH.
- pennsylvania is at O+4.6, but offers 20 electoral votes. it would be bad to cede this state.
- virginia is at R+0.3. total toss-up; worthy of attention.

- north carolina is at R+3.8. it must be a lock on internals.

if i might offer some speculation on the less attended visits:

- although minnesota is a long shot at O+5, it is easily enroute from ohio to colorado and attracts regional attention.
- similarly, wisconsin is at O+5.4, but offers both hometown energy and geographical usefulness.
- florida is sitting at R+1.4 right now and perhaps offers the best evidence for romney momentum in the last two weeks. unwise to ignore potential 29 EV.
- nevada is the only western stop. although romney has essentially never polled ahead here, it remains O+2.7. might as well try for some regional GOTV.

looking at electoral college math, it basically works out like this when projecting from the current public polling leads:

romney winning florida, north carolina; obama winning wisconsin, nevada; everything else as a toss-up

obama wins ohio? no path to victory. therefore it receives the highest attention.

but otherwise, romney victory conditions are as follows:

romney wins OH, VA, CO
romney wins OH, VA, IA
romney wins OH, VA, NH
romney wins OH, CO, IA, NH

this is why we see the high attention given to IA and NH in spite of their low EV offering. colorado is also pivotal given the current swing towards obama in IA and NH.

if we dismiss IA and NH as an obama win, the only path is through ohio, virginia and colorado. nonetheless, the final campaign schedule reveals much about the final electoral college strategy.

[Asilynne]

There's about 3 rallies in VA on Monday, I'm going to the Fairfax one :3

[kurai]

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UnSkewed Polls - Unskewed Projection [no change]



Princeton Election Consortium - Electoral College Map



Washington Dispatch - Electoral College Count [no change]

[mr_pikachu]

some notable state-level polling analysis:

Yeah, The Weekly Standard tackled the same issue a few days ago, although they were just looking at Ohio. Check out the bimodal distribution, and note the clusters of particular polls around each of the two peaks:



Recent Florida polls offer an even starker contrast; we had one give +6 for Romney and another show +2 for Obama on the same day. So the question really comes down to which of the two "stories" is accurate. Which set of polls is more accurately predicting the electorate slice that will make their way to the voting booths on Tuesday?

[Telume]

Romney is up 6 in Florida

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/0...-6-in-florida/



And in which crowd has Romney said Obama is a Muslim?



You know what, Romney could go out and say Obama is the most Christian American to ever walk this Earth. And the left and the media would willingly go along with Romney being looney and out of touch. That was Obama's whole strategy for the summer. Meanwhile Biden goes around acting like a mouth breathing retard, and Obama runs a campaign in which Big Bird is the big October theme and the media doesn't touch it.

Just like I doubt they will touch the next big gaffe from Obama.



Saying "Voting is the best revenge" is going to kill him even further with independents, but it will be up to Romney to push the story. Much as he did at the rally last night in Ohio in which tens of thousands showed up.

You call that a gaffe? THIS is a gaffe:

[Dark Sage]

Baron Munchhausen, Pinnochio, and The Boy Who Cried Wolf...

Once this election is over, Mitt Romney can join them in the Liar's Hall of Fame.

[Roy Karrde]

Baron Munchhausen, Pinnochio, and The Boy Who Cried Wolf...

Once this election is over, Mitt Romney can join them in the Liar's Hall of Fame.

You call that a gaffe? THIS is a gaffe:

So let me get this straight, Obama out and out lies repeatedly about Romney's position on the GM bailouts, and when the topic turns on them, Obama and his team in the media start whining about it?

[Dark Sage]

What he said in Ohio was not only a lie, it was a very unconvincing lie. If you lived in a Ohio, you'd have to be a hermit who has not had any contact with people for about ten years to believe it. Like the anchor said, the people there follow the auto industry like they do a local baseball team.