although we can not see what the romney campaign's internal state-level polling looks like

the schedule for the final days may reveal something interesting about it:

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Portsmouth International Airport
42 Airline Ave., Newington, N.H.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
215 5th St., Marietta, Ohio

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Dubuque Regional Airport
11000 Airport Road, Dubuque, Iowa

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
517 Airport Drive, Middletown, Pa.

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Colorado Spring Municipal Airport
1575 Aviation Way, Colorado Springs, Colo.

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
5733 Huntsman Rd., Richmond, Va.

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Comfort Dental Amphitheatre
6350 Greenwood Plaza Blvd., Englewood, Colo.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
Oak Avenue and Park Street, Panama City, Fla.

Mitt Romney
Attending rally
233 Center St., Des Moines, Iowa

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
2000 Harrington Memorial Rd., Mansfield, Ohio

Mitt Romney
Attending rally with musician Rodney Atkins
6200 Riverside Drive, Cleveland, Ohio

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
2005 Cargo Rd., Minneapolis, Minn.

Mitt Romney
Attending rally
931 Stony Hill Road, Morrisville, Pa.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
500 Fairgrounds Drive, Castle Rock, Colo.

Mitt Romney
Attending rally
970 Airport Road, Lynchburg, Va.

Paul Ryan
Attending campaign event
655 S. Rock Blvd., Reno, Nev.

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Landmark Aviation
4130 E. 5th Ave., Columbus, Ohio

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
2842 S.E. Frontage Road., Johnstown, Colo.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
2800 McKinley Ave., Des Moines, Iowa

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
5480 S. Howell Ave., Milwaukee, Wis.

Paul Ryan
Attending rally
1453 Youngstown Kingsville Road, Vienna, Ohio

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally with Kid Rock
555 Elm St., Manchester, N.H.
Ro: NH, IA, CO, CO, IA, OH, PA, VA, OH, NH
Ry: OH, PA, VA, FL, OH, MN, CO, NV, CO, IA, WI, OH

let's weight the topline at 1.5, vp at 1

OH: 6
CO: 5
IA: 4
NH: 3
PA: 2.5
VA: 2.5
FL: 1
MN: 1
WI: 1
NV: 1

they are visiting every toss-up state aside from NC, with special focus on ohio and colorado

in public polling:

- colorado is a close O+1, and its demographics make outright declarations of victory impossible.
- ohio is sitting at O+2.9, but internal polling could indicate differently. also, ohio is integral to most EV victory conditions.
- iowa is at O+2.
- new hampshire is at O+1.8, which is a pretty significant decline from 2008's O+9.6 win. perhaps they think they can snipe NH.
- pennsylvania is at O+4.6, but offers 20 electoral votes. it would be bad to cede this state.
- virginia is at R+0.3. total toss-up; worthy of attention.

- north carolina is at R+3.8. it must be a lock on internals.

if i might offer some speculation on the less attended visits:

- although minnesota is a long shot at O+5, it is easily enroute from ohio to colorado and attracts regional attention.
- similarly, wisconsin is at O+5.4, but offers both hometown energy and geographical usefulness.
- florida is sitting at R+1.4 right now and perhaps offers the best evidence for romney momentum in the last two weeks. unwise to ignore potential 29 EV.
- nevada is the only western stop. although romney has essentially never polled ahead here, it remains O+2.7. might as well try for some regional GOTV.

looking at electoral college math, it basically works out like this when projecting from the current public polling leads:

romney winning florida, north carolina; obama winning wisconsin, nevada; everything else as a toss-up

obama wins ohio? no path to victory. therefore it receives the highest attention.

but otherwise, romney victory conditions are as follows:

romney wins OH, VA, CO
romney wins OH, VA, IA
romney wins OH, VA, NH
romney wins OH, CO, IA, NH

this is why we see the high attention given to IA and NH in spite of their low EV offering. colorado is also pivotal given the current swing towards obama in IA and NH.

if we dismiss IA and NH as an obama win, the only path is through ohio, virginia and colorado. nonetheless, the final campaign schedule reveals much about the final electoral college strategy.