2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Dark Sage]

I wasn't making a prediction either, Roy.

But personally I doubt this fight will end no matter how the Court will rule. Both sides are going to be fighting over the issue of health care for years to come.

[Roy Karrde]

I wasn't making a prediction either, Roy.

Dude how many predictions in this thread have you made? How many bets have you made about if X does Y then I will do Z. Like writing a paper about how you love Republicans, etc etc.

But personally I doubt this fight will end no matter how the Court will rule. Both sides are going to be fighting over the issue of health care for years to come.

I don't know, I think this will take it off the table for some time. The states may adopt their own version like Romneycare, and the Socialized Medicine program that California tried to push for a while back. But with the mandate destroyed it will be even harder for Democrats to bring about any universal health care program on a national level.

[Dark Sage]

Yes, Roy, I have made several predictions on this thread.

But I'm not making one here. I'm really not sure how the Court will rule.

You did make a valid point. The Justices really grilled the lawyers who argued in favor of the law today. And I am starting to wonder if this whole deal may or may not be more trouble than it's worth.

I mean, if the Court does uphold it, the GOP likely will never give up trying to repeal it, which will give Mr. Obama endless headaches if he is re-elected.

So no, this time, I will not make a prediction. I was just stating what a survey of some law clerks who worked for the Justices said.

[Roy Karrde]

I was just stating what a survey of some law clerks who worked for the Justices said.

You know Politico breached that today, and many other pundits and law professors that were predicting victory before the arguments even started.

In the orgy of panel discussions, interviews and feature articles previewing this week’s arguments, law professors, Supreme Court litigators and journalists confidently predicted that the justices would uphold the individual mandate as a logical extension of the federal government’s well-established ability to regulate the health insurance market.

Harvard law professor Charles Fried, a solicitor general himself in the Reagan era, famously promised a couple of years ago to eat his Kangaroo skin hat if the Supreme Court struck down the law.

Within the first few minutes of Tuesday’s arguments, that bravado seemed to go out the window.

“Eventually, the conventional wisdom will catch up with reality,” Goldstein joked. “It’s absolutely true that this argument has gotten the back of the hand from the legal glitterati, including myself.”

The final word won’t come for months, Goldstein said, “but I’ll tell you [the challengers] are doing the high-fives today. … They’re not doing them at the Department of Justice.”

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.c...2-EE824B8E1A77

I think the fact that those supporting the law have a tougher battle was dismissed until, well the bitch slap that was given to the supporters this morning. And the stuttering, scared, lawyer who had trouble making coherent statements in support of the law in front of the court did not help them at all.

[Dark Sage]

Back to the Prsidential Election.

New today, three polls taken by Quinnipiac University in three critical swing states show good news for Mr. Obama.

In Florida, Obama tops Mitt Romney 49 percent to 42 percent; while beating Rick Santorum 50 percent to 37 percent.

In Ohio, Obama beats Romney 47 to 41 percent and Santorum 47 to 40 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Obama edges Romney 45 to 42 percent, while topping Santorum 48 to 41 percent.

Also, another poll taken by the Washington Post and ABC has more bad news for Romney. It basically says that, well, people just don't like him.

In the new poll, 50 percent of all adults and 52 percent of registered voters express unfavorable opinions of Romney, both higher -- although marginally -- than Obama has received in Post-ABC polling as far back as late 2006. However, the biggest difference between Romney and Obama is on the other side of the ledger: 53 percent of Americans hold favorable views of the president; for Romney, that number slides to 34 percent.

Edit: Getting back to the matter of the Supreme Court's decision. Here's something to think about:

Obama might win politically if the Court finds the Affordable Health Care Act unconstitutional. Democrats will blame it on conservatives in Supreme Court, and will work harder to re-elect Obama to prevent more conservative Justices from being appointed.

And Congress makes the laws, they passed the ACA after butchering it. The Court will say Congress abridged its power by passing the ACA, not Obama. So Republicans will gain nothing in the Presidential contest.

In fact, the GOP had a potential winning issue campaigning against the individual mandate. It would have been hard on Obama with Romney as his opponent, using it against him, but if it goes away, the GOP will have almost nothing.

[Roy Karrde]

Back to the Prsidential Election.

New today, three polls taken by Quinnipiac University in three critical swing states show good news for Mr. Obama.

In Florida, Obama tops Mitt Romney 49 percent to 42 percent; while beating Rick Santorum 50 percent to 37 percent.

In Ohio, Obama beats Romney 47 to 41 percent and Santorum 47 to 40 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Obama edges Romney 45 to 42 percent, while topping Santorum 48 to 41 percent.

Also, another poll taken by the Washington Post and ABC has more bad news for Romney. It basically says that, well, people just don't like him.

Thank you for showing why the ABC Washington Post poll is absolutely invalid. First lets look at the QPac poll, specifically Florida.

Obama tops Mitt Romney 49 percent to 42 percent

Now lets look at the partisan break down of that poll.

D/R/I is 33/29/33

That is a rather dramatic 4 point swing from the last election.

2010 it was 36/36/29

Infact it comes closer to mirroring the 2008 election when Obamamania was at it's highest.

2008 exit polls was 37/34/29,

Now any pollster will say it is ignorant to do head to head during the middle of a primary. But even worse it is insane to give the Democrat's such a partisan advantage with no reason to show for it. This is the reason ABC Washington Post needs to show their partisan break downs, with out it the polls are not worth the paper they are printed on.

Edit: Getting back to the matter of the Supreme Court's decision. Here's something to think about:

Obama might win politically if the Court finds the Affordable Health Care Act unconstitutional. Democrats will blame it on conservatives in Supreme Court, and will work harder to re-elect Obama to prevent more conservative Justices from being appointed.

Problem is that it takes Obama's biggest domestic triumph off the table, he can try to argue for more liberal justices, but that won't help him with independents who like the court as centrist as it is right now.

And Congress makes the laws, they passed the ACA after butchering it. The Court will say Congress abridged its power by passing the ACA, not Obama. So Republicans will gain nothing in the Presidential contest.

In fact, the GOP had a potential winning issue campaigning against the individual mandate. It would have been hard on Obama with Romney as his opponent, using it against him, but if it goes away, the GOP will have almost nothing.

Problem is that Obama pushed Congress heavily for this, a Democratic congress at that, and was seen trumping it up afterwards, the health care law will still be poison even if it is struck down on not. Difference is that if it is struck down, it makes Obama look like a idiot for signing a unconstitutional law while being a 'constitutional scholar". And lets not forget that this actually helps Romney, on a national level when ever Obamacare is brought up, Obama could say "I was just following your lead" if struck down, Romney's argument of it being a state's rights issue becomes much much stronger.

[Dark Sage]

Problem is that it takes Obama's biggest domestic triumph off the table.

His "biggest domestic triumph"? You GOPers call it his biggest failure.

And if fewer Republicans are being polled, Roy, maybe that means fewer Republicans are responding. Meaning that there are fewer Republicans who are actually going to vote.