2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Dark Sage]

I do NOT "live in a cocoon"! Do you think I spend my whole life in front of this computer?

Here's something else to consider: Obama has history on his side.

Only five incumbent Presidents have lost re-election, and only one of those has been a Democrat.

I'll show you:

George H.W. Bush, Republican, lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.
Jimmy Carter, Democrat, lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Gerald Ford, Republican, lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Herbert Hoover, Republican, lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.
William Taft, Republican, lost to Woodrow Wilson in 1912.

All of these incumbents lost for VERY good reasons, reasons that are absent now. Romney does not have the charisma of Reagan or Clinton. He can't blame something as big as the Great Depression on Obama, the reason Hoover lost; Obama didn't pardon a guy who everyone wanted to see go to jail like Ford did. And seeing as the reason Taft lost was because Theodore Roosevelt was running as a third candidate, that option is out the window too.

Obama may have problems, but none that even comes close to the ones that these incumbents had in their re-election campaigns.

Romney needs a new way to accomplish this diffcult task, and he has less than 100 days to find one.

Edit: And by the way. The polls are indeed showing that Obama is going to win. The Electoral map shows him with 290 votes if the election were held today, compared to 190 for Romney, and he is leading slightly in all of the swing states.